A little color commentary on NC.
First, the good news. I think the initial Dem surge has reached its apex. Rs have a lot more 4/4 voters left, and there are already signs of regional success possible if the Senate race isn’t competitive.
The bad news - Dems pulled a D+29 split yesterday thanks to which counties were and were not open. By my count, 58 counties were closed yesterday, overwhelmingly Republican. Only two meaningful Dem vote counties were closed - Forsyth and Guilford.
That means that most of the D+29 yesterday came out of Mecklenburg, Wake, Durham, and Buncombe Counties.
The northeastern district, NC-1, looks winnable for Rs given that it is a Trump +11 redraw that relies on heavy black turnout in an area that has been fading for Dems for a decade. I think it looks better than NC-11, where Asheville is (at least for now) blowing through its high prop voters and the red areas are sitting around closed for the weekend.
These selective openings (which I believe we will see in GA today) probably ought to be addressed by the legislature and I do remember bringing this up in 2024 when Dems would make up huge ground in NC/GA when reds were watching football.
Either way, I suspect NC will trend toward competition beginning early this week.
🚨 NC EARLY VOTE UPDATE — OCT. 17
🗳️ 61,353 voted in-person Saturday
🔵 DEM: 27,801 (45.3%)
🔴 REP: 9,946 (16.2%)
⚪ UNA: 23,430 (38.2%)
Other: 176 (0.3%)
📊 TOTAL IPEV: 461,048
📬 TOTAL MAIL: 40,273
🚨 TOTAL VOTES CAST: 501,321
COMBINED IPEV + MAIL BY PARTY:
🔵 DEM: 227,388 (45.4%)
🔴 REP: 100,650 (20.1%)
⚪ UNA: 172,234 (34.4%)
Other: 1,049 (0.2%)
North Carolina has officially crossed HALF A MILLION VOTES in the 2026 general election!