$BTC Following up on my previous post about the three relief rallies within major Bitcoin bear-market structures, I want to highlight another interesting detail. When we measure these rallies, there is often a clear progression in their magnitude: the first is smaller, the second becomes stronger, and the third tends to be the strongest relief rally before the major bearish continuation. Looking across the major structures: 2011: +45% → +70% → +79% 2013–15: +55% → +60% → +84% 2017–18: +30% → +40% → +68% 2021–22: +25.0% → +30.1% → +40.0% Current: +21.3% → +37.5% → +42.2% The percentages are obviously not identical from cycle to cycle, but the character of the progression is what matters: smaller → stronger → strongest → bearish continuation. This is also why I don’t automatically interpret a strong recovery inside a bear structure as the beginning of a new bull market. Historically, the largest relief rally can appear very close to the transition into the next major bearish phase.

I think the weekly $ETH chart will help you understand how I’m counting the current structure and why I believe it is closely repeating the structure ETH developed in 2022. The main difference is scale: the current structure is roughly 40% larger than the 2022 structure. Because of that, I’m assuming the corresponding upside and downside moves should also be proportionally larger. ( look At quoted post ) In the 2022 structure, ETH experienced a strong relief rally of approximately +55% from the local lows. So, if the current structure is ~40% larger, I scaled that move accordingly: 55% × 1.40 ≈ 77% That projection pointed toward the $2,660 area. And this is exactly what happened — ETH swept the $2,660 range almost perfectly, followed by an immediate rejection. For me, this is another important piece of evidence that the current ETH structure is following the same underlying pattern as 2022, but on a larger scale.

This post is more of an answer to the people in my comments asking: “Why would the market give you ETH at $528–700 and BTC at $32K? Why would the market give people those cheap prices to buy?” Brother, let me put it simply: Once those levels are reached, unfortunately the majority may be left with nothing to buy with. This is how every bear cycle works. Why? Because they already bought after seeing the latest Bitcoin relief rally. When the market eventually moves much lower, fear and panic can force even spot holders to sell — leaving them without capital when the real dip arrives. And don’t forget: every bear market eventually reaches price levels that the majority never believed were possible. $BTC $ETH

This is exactly what the market wants you to do: it wants you to buy at these levels before the real bottom arrives. Then, when the market continues lower, you either get liquidated or panic and sell even your spot positions — leaving you with nothing left to buy the real dip. And some influencers putting their audiences into longs right now may potentially be contributing to this. They’re effectively turning their followers into potential liquidity for the next major crash. We saw this level of fear and panic in previous cycles, but we haven’t seen it during the current cycle yet. So be prepared: that phase will still come over the next few months. $BTC

$BTC : An important post that can help you protect your capital — and potentially grow it instead of losing it. I wouldn’t suggest taking unnecessary risks here. If you don’t want to swing short from these levels with us, then simply stay in USDT and wait. Don’t try to catch every move, and don’t scalp just because the market is moving. You can easily get stuck in a position and potentially be unable to exit until the true cycle bottom arrives. And especially, I wouldn’t suggest buying from here — not even for a scalp, and not even on spot. Don’t play with market. You might be thinking: “Why not buy? Bitcoin will eventually make a new ATH anyway.” But that’s not how the market works. Every bear market eventually takes price to levels that the majority never believed were possible. That’s what creates the extreme fear and panic that eventually forces people out of their positions. We haven’t seen that level of fear and panic during this cycle yet. Eventually, people start thinking “this is the end of crypto” and lose hope that Bitcoin will ever recover. And when that happens, even spot holders start selling their positions because of fear and losing hope, despite having no leverage. That is the kind of capitulation we saw in previous cycles — but we haven’t experienced it in this cycle yet. In my view, this is something we will experience over the coming months as the market eventually reaches the true cycle bottom. I don’t want you to get liquidated before the true bottom arrives, or burn through your capital trying to catch every move, only to have nothing left when the real dip finally comes. Preserve your capital. The goal is to still have liquidity when the true cycle bottom arrives — and then be ready to participate in the next bull run.

$BTC : worth to read full text , I promise it will be very interesting for you. This is how we can estimate how much Bitcoin could correct from its $126K ATH to the true cycle bottom. First, we analyzed the distance from one cycle bottom to the next. Now, we can take the same approach one step further: without changing anything on the chart, we simply compare the percentage correction from each cycle top to its true bottom. As you know, Bitcoin’s long-term trend angles continue to compress with each cycle. As a result, both bull-market expansions and bear-market corrections have become progressively shallower over time. Let’s look at the historical progression: 2011: −93.7% 2014–2015: −86.28% 2018: −84.40% 2022: −77.90% 2026–2027: potentially around −73.90% If this pattern of declining correction depth continues, a ~73.9% correction from the $126K ATH would place Bitcoin around $32K, which is the true cycle-bottom zone I’m watching. The interesting part is that both the bottom-to-bottom distance and the top-to-bottom correction are showing the same progressive compression. And this is exactly why, in my view, $58K doesn’t fit as the true cycle bottom. Yes, Bitcoin’s corrections are getting shallower — but the historical progression does not suggest an aggressive jump from a −77.9% correction to only ~−54% (the ~$58K zone). That would represent roughly a 24 percentage-point reduction in correction depth — an unusually large step compared with the historical progression. In the previous cycles, the reductions have generally happened much more gradually, roughly in the 3–6 percentage-point range. The compression has been happening gradually, cycle after cycle. In my view, that progression points much closer to a ~−73.9% correction, rather than a dramatic reduction all the way to ~−54%. This is why I continue to view ~$32K as a potential true cycle-bottom zone, rather than ~$58K.

$BTC Prolonged Bearish Phase Why did I make this post? Because I was reading the comments, and some people were saying it’s weird that we’ve seen so much FUD — similar to what we saw in previous cycles — but this time it hasn’t had the same negative effect on Bitcoin. People are also asking how Bitcoin can keep rising despite the challenging macroeconomic environment and all the uncertainty we’re seeing globally. My answer is simple: give the market time. Let this cycle develop, and you’ll see that it can still rhyme with the same historical structures we’ve seen before. There are several things I want to point out. So, what is actually different this time? USDT.D: Historically, USDT.D has broken its previous ATH during major Bitcoin capitulation phases. This time, it hasn’t even reached the previous double-top area yet. S&P 500 vs. Bitcoin: In previous cycles — except 2013–2015 — the S&P 500 generally moved in rhythm with Bitcoin, with both assets reaching their major bottoms within roughly a month of each other. The 2013–2015 cycle was the major exception. Realized Price: Historically, Bitcoin has bottomed below Realized Price. This time, Bitcoin hasn’t even reached Realized Price yet. 12M candle: Historically, Bitcoin’s major cycle bottoms were accompanied by a full-bodied red 12M candle. The current 12M candle is still only showing a wick. Timing: Historically, Bitcoin hasn’t formed a major cycle bottom before roughly one year, with the 2011 cycle being the main exception. Why was 2011 different? Because Bitcoin was still at the very beginning of its history. The trend angles had not yet compressed to the critical levels we see today. That’s why I believe the current Bitcoin structure requires more time in a bearish phase to create the conditions and room necessary for the next major expansion. Otherwise, there may not be enough structural room for Bitcoin to reach a new ATH. And then there’s another important point: Why did Bitcoin suddenly start rallying just before the one-year mark? That behavior is something we haven’t seen in the same way in previous cycles. Bitcoin’s corrections and expansions have historically become shallower cycle by cycle, but the reduction has generally been around 3–6%. So why would the compression suddenly jump from 77.9% to roughly 53–54% this time? Instead of assuming that history has suddenly stopped working, give the market time. Over the coming months, this prolonged bearish cycle can still show whether Bitcoin completes these historical patterns once again. That’s exactly what I’ve been explaining since the beginning: This cycle is different in timing because it is developing as a prolonged bearish cycle — lasting more than one year.

$BTC : worth to read full text , I promise it will be very interesting for you. This is how we can estimate how much Bitcoin could correct from its $126K ATH to the true cycle bottom. First, we analyzed the distance from one cycle bottom to the next. Now, we can take the same approach one step further: without changing anything on the chart, we simply compare the percentage correction from each cycle top to its true bottom. As you know, Bitcoin’s long-term trend angles continue to compress with each cycle. As a result, both bull-market expansions and bear-market corrections have become progressively shallower over time. Let’s look at the historical progression: 2011: −93.7% 2014–2015: −86.28% 2018: −84.40% 2022: −77.90% 2026–2027: potentially around −73.90% If this pattern of declining correction depth continues, a ~73.9% correction from the $126K ATH would place Bitcoin around $32K, which is the true cycle-bottom zone I’m watching. The interesting part is that both the bottom-to-bottom distance and the top-to-bottom correction are showing the same progressive compression. And this is exactly why, in my view, $58K doesn’t fit as the true cycle bottom. Yes, Bitcoin’s corrections are getting shallower — but the historical progression does not suggest an aggressive jump from a −77.9% correction to only ~−54% (the ~$58K zone). That would represent roughly a 24 percentage-point reduction in correction depth — an unusually large step compared with the historical progression. In the previous cycles, the reductions have generally happened much more gradually, roughly in the 3–6 percentage-point range. The compression has been happening gradually, cycle after cycle. In my view, that progression points much closer to a ~−73.9% correction, rather than a dramatic reduction all the way to ~−54%. This is why I continue to view ~$32K as a potential true cycle-bottom zone, rather than ~$58K.

$BTC If my interpretation is correct, Bitcoin may follow a larger 12-year structure, consisting of three separate 4-year cycles. Within this framework, each 12-year structure could potentially develop as follows: Phase 1: The first 4-year cycle, followed by a relatively standard ~1-year bear market. Phase 2: The second 4-year cycle, where a longer-than-one-year bear market occurs — essentially a deeper structural reset. Phase 3: The third 4-year cycle, followed by another relatively standard ~1-year bear market. Since Bitcoin’s history began around 2010, we are now roughly 16 years into its development. That means one complete 12-year structure has already played out, including one prolonged bearish phase — the 2013–2015 bear market. Then, starting around 2022, Bitcoin may have entered a new large-scale 12-year structure. The first 4-year cycle of this new structure has already completed, including a relatively standard ~1-year bear market in 2022. If this framework is correct, we are now entering Phase 2 — the part of the larger structure where another prolonged bear market could occur. And if the pattern continues, the third 4-year cycle could eventually be followed by another more typical ~1-year bear market.

$BTC #SP500 Here’s another interesting piece of evidence supporting my expectation that the current Bitcoin bearish cycle will rhyme with the prolonged 2013–2015 cycle. One of the key similarities is the significant divergence between Bitcoin and the S&P 500. During the 2013–2015 bear market, Bitcoin became increasingly disconnected from the S&P 500’s rhythm. While the S&P 500 continued trending higher, Bitcoin entered a prolonged structural decline and followed its own cycle. What’s interesting is that in the other major Bitcoin cycles, BTC generally rhymed much more closely with the S&P 500. Their broader market rhythms were more aligned, and major corrections in Bitcoin and the S&P 500 tended to occur at approximately the same time. But this time, just like in 2013–2015, we are seeing a different relationship developing. Bitcoin is increasingly moving away from the S&P 500’s rhythm, while the S&P 500 continues to follow its own bullish structure. This is another reason why I believe the current cycle is not simply a copy of 2022. Instead, the market appears to be developing characteristics much closer to the 2013–2015 prolonged bearish cycle. And this is exactly the scenario I’ve been discussing for the past three months.

你的意思是黄金会上涨比特币会下跌对吧

$BTC: about the true bottom formation in the coming months: As you can see on my chart, the real cycle-bottom formation has historically developed through an ABCDE structure, often taking a shape that resembles a triangle. You can also look at the historical charts in the quoted post to see these structures more clearly. Across the four major bear cycles, we’ve seen this type of ABCDE bottom formation. Interestingly, in only one of those cycles — 2011 — did the final Wave (E) fail to sweep slightly lower and establish a new cycle low. In the following three cycles, Wave (E) did sweep the previous low, creating either a new cycle low or something resembling a double-bottom structure. Of course, it’s still too early to know exactly how the current cycle will develop. We’ll only find out once Bitcoin actually enters the true bottom-formation phase. But I want to outline the possible paths I’m watching. Scenario 1 Bitcoin first declines toward the $36K area and begins forming the bottoming structure. Then, the final Wave (E) could sweep down toward $32K, followed by an immediate reversal and the beginning of the next bull phase. Scenario 2 Bitcoin first declines directly toward the $32K area and begins forming the bottoming structure there. Then, the final Wave (E) could sweep even lower into the $30K–$27K range, before the market immediately reverses into a new bull phase. This is exactly why I’m not giving one fixed bottom price. It’s impossible to know in advance whether the final Wave (E) sweep will happen — or how deep it could go. That’s why I’ve marked a range of potential bottom levels: roughly $36K → $32K → $27K. Once Bitcoin reaches that stage, we can watch the structure develop in real time and see how this cycle’s ABCDE bottom formation actually plays out.

$BTC : — read the full text to fully understand the context and the point I’m making. Honestly, I’ve seen people saying that Bitcoin cycles are “accelerating,” and because of that, they assume Bitcoin should reach/or reached its bottom within less than one year of the bearish cycle. it don’t work that way guys , If you want to make a really useful comparison, you need to measure from the cycle bottom to the next ATH, as I’ve done on my chart. Let me explain. I don’t see a clear mathematical basis for that assumption. Bitcoin is still following a broader ~4-year cycle structure, but there is no fixed duration or mathematical rule saying that each cycle must reach its next ATH faster than the previous one. And even more importantly, there is nothing in the historical data saying that the cycle bottom itself must occur within one year or less. So far, we have four completed cycles measured from cycle bottom → next ATH: 2011 → 2013: 458 days 2015 → 2017: 721 days 2018 → 2020: 717 days 2022 → 2024: 473 days What does this tell us? There is no consistent mathematical sequence showing that each cycle is becoming shorter. We’ve had cycles around 458–473 days, and we’ve also had cycles around 700+ days. And there’s another important point: the length of the bearish phase itself does not determine how quickly Bitcoin reaches the next ATH. For example, during the 2013–2015 prolonged bearish phase, Bitcoin took around 411 days to reach the cycle bottom, yet it still took roughly 700 days from that bottom to reach a new ATH. The 2018 cycle is another example. The bearish phase lasted roughly one year, but Bitcoin still needed around 700 days from the cycle bottom to reach the next ATH. So a one-year bear market does not automatically mean the bottom must already be in. And it certainly doesn’t mean the next ATH has to come quickly afterward. Likewise, a prolonged bearish phase does not invalidate the broader ~4-year cycle structure. If you want to argue that Bitcoin cycles are accelerating, you need more than a shorter ATH-to-ATH interval. You need to show a consistent acceleration in the actual cycle structure — and the bottom-to-ATH data doesn’t show that.

$BTC : — read the full text to fully understand the context and the point I’m making. Honestly, I’ve seen people saying that Bitcoin cycles are “accelerating,” and because of that, they assume Bitcoin should reach/or reached its bottom within less than one year of the bearish cycle. it don’t work that way guys , If you want to make a really useful comparison, you need to measure from the cycle bottom to the next ATH, as I’ve done on my chart. Let me explain. I don’t see a clear mathematical basis for that assumption. Bitcoin is still following a broader ~4-year cycle structure, but there is no fixed duration or mathematical rule saying that each cycle must reach its next ATH faster than the previous one. And even more importantly, there is nothing in the historical data saying that the cycle bottom itself must occur within one year or less. So far, we have four completed cycles measured from cycle bottom → next ATH: 2011 → 2013: 458 days 2015 → 2017: 721 days 2018 → 2020: 717 days 2022 → 2024: 473 days What does this tell us? There is no consistent mathematical sequence showing that each cycle is becoming shorter. We’ve had cycles around 458–473 days, and we’ve also had cycles around 700+ days. And there’s another important point: the length of the bearish phase itself does not determine how quickly Bitcoin reaches the next ATH. For example, during the 2013–2015 prolonged bearish phase, Bitcoin took around 411 days to reach the cycle bottom, yet it still took roughly 700 days from that bottom to reach a new ATH. The 2018 cycle is another example. The bearish phase lasted roughly one year, but Bitcoin still needed around 700 days from the cycle bottom to reach the next ATH. So a one-year bear market does not automatically mean the bottom must already be in. And it certainly doesn’t mean the next ATH has to come quickly afterward. Likewise, a prolonged bearish phase does not invalidate the broader ~4-year cycle structure. If you want to argue that Bitcoin cycles are accelerating, you need more than a shorter ATH-to-ATH interval. You need to show a consistent acceleration in the actual cycle structure — and the bottom-to-ATH data doesn’t show that.

$XAU/ $BTC — the long-term curve structure may finally be breaking. Look at the compression in the trend angles over the entire history. In the previous cycles, XAU/BTC consistently made meaningful new ATL lows. But in the latest cycle, instead of producing another significant breakdown, it only made a marginal sweep before creating a new ATL. Why? Because the long-term trend angle has compressed almost to zero — around 0.3%. That is an important structural change. After years of declining trend angles and repeated new ATL formations, XAU/BTC is now showing early signs that the long-term downtrend may finally be transitioning into a reversal. If this structure continues to play out, we could see XAU/BTC make a new cycle high during the current cycle, potentially while Bitcoin is still in its broader bear phase. And this is where the structure becomes especially interesting: XAU/BTC potentially makes its first major high → Bitcoin reaches its true cycle bottom → Bitcoin enters a new bull phase → XAU/BTC begins declining again. However, this time I would not necessarily expect XAU/BTC to make another meaningful ATL. Why could XAU/BTC finally make a new high? Because the latest ATL was barely a new low — essentially a sweep after years of trend-angle compression. The structure is telling us something has changed. So logically, the first major objective during this cycle could be a move toward the previous major high, with the possibility of a sweep above it before the next major reversal.

$BTC : Relief Rally Comparison: Historically Three relief rallies appeared before major bearish continuation and the true cycle bottom. But instead of looking only at the number of rallies, let’s compare their size and proportions. 2022 structure: Wave (B): +25% Wave (X): +30% Wave (B): +39.5% The third relief rally, marked with Wave (B), was 9.5 percentage points larger, or approximately 31.7% larger, than Wave (X). Current structure: Wave (B): +21% Wave (X): +37% Wave (B): +49% The third relief rally, marked with Wave (B), is 12 percentage points larger, or approximately 32.4% larger, than Wave (X). And this is the part I find particularly interesting: In both structures, the third relief rally — Wave (B) — is roughly 32% larger than the second relief rally, Wave (X). 2022: 30% → 39.5% = +31.7% larger Current: 37% → 49% = +32.4% larger That is a surprisingly similar relationship. So we’re not simply seeing the same sequence repeating. The current bearish-cycle structure appears to be developing on a larger scale and over a longer period, while the relative size of the relief rallies is showing a very similar pattern. And based on this logic and calculation, it is very possible that the top of the current relief rally is already in. If this structure continues to develop in a similar way, we could see major bearish continuation starting from here, eventually leading into the true cycle bottom in the coming months.

$ETH true cycle bottom at early 2027: If you remember, I’ve mentioned that ETH is essentially developing the same structure we saw during 2021–2022, but this time on a scale roughly 40% larger. This structural comparison is the foundation of my thesis. I’ve already explained my bottom target in my previous post, so this one is more focused on timing. Let’s first take a closer look at the 2021–2022 structure. During the 2021–2022 structure, Phase 1 lasted 112 days. After Phase 1 was completed, ETH formed an aggressive relief rally before entering Phase 2 — the major corrective phase that ultimately led to the true cycle bottom. What’s important here is that Phase 2 also took roughly another 112 days, measured from the local bottom that initiated the relief rally until the eventual cycle bottom. So we had: Phase 1 → 112 days Phase 2 → another 112 days Now let’s apply the same structural relationship to the current 2025–2027 structure. This time, the structure is approximately 40% larger, which means the corresponding phases and impulses are also taking significantly more time to develop. In the current structure, Phase 1 has already taken approximately 280 days. If the same proportional relationship continues to play out, then Phase 2 should logically take another ~280 days, measured from the local bottom around $1,500 and including the aggressive relief-rally period that has taken ETH as high as $2,800 so far, before the final cycle bottom is formed. That would put the potential final bottom around March 2027. And this is particularly interesting because it aligns with the timeframe I’ve been expecting for Bitcoin as well. I’ve mentioned before that I’m expecting Bitcoin’s final cycle bottom to develop around early 2027. So once again, the interesting part isn’t the exact date — it’s the structural symmetry and proportional timing between the previous and current ETH structures.

$ETH true cycle bottom at early 2027: If you remember, I’ve mentioned that ETH is essentially developing the same structure we saw during 2021–2022, but this time on a scale roughly 40% larger. This structural comparison is the foundation of my thesis. I’ve already explained my bottom target in my previous post, so this one is more focused on timing. Let’s first take a closer look at the 2021–2022 structure. During the 2021–2022 structure, Phase 1 lasted 112 days. After Phase 1 was completed, ETH formed an aggressive relief rally before entering Phase 2 — the major corrective phase that ultimately led to the true cycle bottom. What’s important here is that Phase 2 also took roughly another 112 days, measured from the local bottom that initiated the relief rally until the eventual cycle bottom. So we had: Phase 1 → 112 days Phase 2 → another 112 days Now let’s apply the same structural relationship to the current 2025–2027 structure. This time, the structure is approximately 40% larger, which means the corresponding phases and impulses are also taking significantly more time to develop. In the current structure, Phase 1 has already taken approximately 280 days. If the same proportional relationship continues to play out, then Phase 2 should logically take another ~280 days, measured from the local bottom around $1,500 and including the aggressive relief-rally period that has taken ETH as high as $2,800 so far, before the final cycle bottom is formed. That would put the potential final bottom around March 2027. And this is particularly interesting because it aligns with the timeframe I’ve been expecting for Bitcoin as well. I’ve mentioned before that I’m expecting Bitcoin’s final cycle bottom to develop around early 2027. So once again, the interesting part isn’t the exact date — it’s the structural symmetry and proportional timing between the previous and current ETH structures.

I think the weekly $ETH chart will help you understand how I’m counting the current structure and why I believe it is closely repeating the structure ETH developed in 2022. The main difference is scale: the current structure is roughly 40% larger than the 2022 structure. Because of that, I’m assuming the corresponding upside and downside moves should also be proportionally larger. ( look At quoted post ) In the 2022 structure, ETH experienced a strong relief rally of approximately +55% from the local lows. So, if the current structure is ~40% larger, I scaled that move accordingly: 55% × 1.40 ≈ 77% That projection pointed toward the $2,660 area. And this is exactly what happened — ETH swept the $2,660 range almost perfectly, followed by an immediate rejection. For me, this is another important piece of evidence that the current ETH structure is following the same underlying pattern as 2022, but on a larger scale.