日本経済新聞にコメントさせていただきました。 ビットコイン市場について、米長期金利の上昇や交換業者からの不正流出など、これまでなら大きな下落要因になり得た材料に対して、なぜ足元の相場が底堅さを見せているのか。 市場構造の変化という観点からコメントしています。 このような機会をいただき、ありがとうございました！ 引き続き、暗号資産市場を丁寧に分析・発信していきます。 nikkei.com/article/DGXZQOUB0…

Bitcoin analyst consensus is shifting toward macro.

Bitcoin Gained 24.5%, 44.9%, and 92.3% After Each of the Last 3 Midterms coinsprobe.com/bitcoin-gaine…

The Strong 12 Months After U.S. Midterms: Could Bitcoin Benefit? “Bitcoin gained 24.5%, 44.9% and 92.3% in the twelve months after the 2014, 2018 and 2022 midterms.” – By @xwinfinance

中期选举后，标普 19 战 19 胜 1950 年至今，选举后 12 个月标普每次都涨，平均 +15.4% 比特币 3 次也全涨，+24.5%、+44.9%、+92.3% 不过 3 个样本还是只当当彩票来看吧 而且 3 次的起点都在熊市底部附近，我猜更多是周期的功劳，跟选举关系不大（纯猜测） 2018 年那次选完第一个月先砸了 45.5%，12 个月后才收在 +44.9% （数据来自 CryptoQuant，@xwinfinance 整理） 有没有懂哥讲讲，现在算不算底部附近

UPDATE: Bitcoin has historically performed strongly after U.S. midterm elections. 👀 $BTC gained 24.5%, 44.9% and 92.3% in the 12 months following the 2014, 2018 and 2022 midterms. Will history rhyme again?

Bitcoin gained 24.5%, 44.9%, and 92.3% in the twelve months after the 2014, 2018, and 2022 U.S. midterms, per @xwinfinance on CryptoQuant. It also fell 45.5% in the first month after the 2018 vote. Three cases, not a rule. coinsprobe.com/bitcoin-gaine…

Bitcoin returns in the 12 months after U.S. midterms: 2014 → +24.5% 2018 → +44.9% 2022 → +92.3%

📊【XWIN CAPITAL INDEX｜October 7, 2026】 Overall Score: 71 / 100 ・80–100 = Strong Bullish Environment ・60–79 = Bullish Environment ・40–59 = Neutral / No Clear Direction ・20–39 = Bearish Environment ・0–19 = Strong Bearish Environment 7-Day Moving Average: 69.86 ↑ 14-Day Moving Average: 69.36 ↓ Market direction: “Bullish conditions remain intact. Exchange supply and leverage have fallen significantly, improving the medium-term structure. However, supply around $87,000, daily ETF outflows, and ultra-long Treasury yields are preventing further acceleration.” In brief: The roughly 14,300 BTC outflow from Binance, low exchange inflows, spot buying on Coinbase and OKX, and declining futures Open Interest are all constructive. However, Bitcoin has now been rejected near $87,000 for the third time, whale selling remains present, the latest ETF flow was negative, and U.S. 20-year and 30-year Treasury yields remain near 5.7%. The score is raised modestly from 70 to 71. ――――――――――――――――――― Market Summary ・On October 6, approximately 14,300 BTC left Binance in a single day. Another estimate put net outflows at around $1.29 billion. Since September 20, Binance reserves have reportedly declined from 704,800 BTC to 663,100 BTC, a reduction of roughly 40,000 BTC. This is highly significant in terms of reducing immediately sellable exchange supply. Pasted text ・Meanwhile, seven-day Bitcoin inflows to Binance totaled only 32,642 BTC, placing them in the 11th percentile over the past year. Although the Whale Ratio is elevated, this may partly reflect declining smaller deposits rather than a surge in whale deposits. Pasted text ・The latest Bitcoin decline appears to have been driven primarily by futures selling. Coinbase and OKX spot markets remained net buyers, while Binance spot and futures markets showed selling pressure. This does not resemble a broad exit by spot investors. Pasted text ・Bitcoin remains locked in a narrow $85,000–$87,000 range. Tuesday’s high was $86,698 and the low was $85,100, while sellers continue to defend the $87,000 area. Pasted text ・The latest confirmed U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF flow showed approximately $89.9 million in net outflows on October 5. BlackRock recorded inflows, but Fidelity and ARK outflows were larger. October 6 data had not yet been finalized in the supplied material. Pasted text ・Corporate demand continues. Strategy purchased an additional 334 BTC, while Strive added 2,000 BTC. Corporate Treasuries remain a meaningful source of spot Bitcoin demand beyond ETFs. Pasted text ・Bitcoin futures Open Interest has declined by roughly 13%, from approximately $29.3 billion on September 21 to around $25.6 billion currently. Bitcoin has recovered toward $85,000 without a corresponding rebound in OI, suggesting that price support is not being driven solely by excessive futures leverage. Pasted text ・The biggest unresolved issue is that Bitcoin still cannot break through $87,000 despite declining available supply. The current structure is best described as: “Sell-side pressure is decreasing, but fresh spot demand is not yet strong enough to absorb overhead supply decisively.” Pasted text ――――――――――――――――――― On-Chain & Technical Trends ・The supply-demand structure on Binance has improved clearly: fewer BTC are entering the exchange, while more BTC are leaving. Exchange withdrawals do not automatically mean long-term holding, but Bitcoin is clearly not accumulating at venues where it can be sold immediately. Pasted text ・The Short-Term Holder Realized Price is approximately $74,000, while Bitcoin trades near $85,000. Current price is therefore roughly 15% above the average cost basis of short-term holders, keeping the broader short-term holder cohort in profit. Pasted text ・NUPL never fell below zero during the latest correction, bottoming around +0.09 before recovering to approximately +0.38. This indicates that the market has not experienced a 2022-style broad capitulation. Pasted text ・Trader Realized Price is approximately $68,900, while the upper band is around $96,500. Current Bitcoin prices remain well above the average acquisition price of active traders, supporting the view that the medium-term recovery structure remains intact. Pasted text ・In derivatives, short positions were liquidated first, followed by long liquidations. Excessive leverage has therefore been cleared on both sides, making spot-market direction increasingly important for the next trend. Pasted text ・The options market is notably more bullish than futures. For the October 30 expiry, the $95,000 Call holds 24,398 BTC, or roughly $2.1 billion in Open Interest, while large positions also exist at $90,000 and $100,000. The Put/Call Ratio is approximately 0.4. Pasted text ・At the same time, some whales and large Bitfinex traders are reducing long exposure. If this is profit-taking and price remains resilient, it may indicate that newer spot demand is absorbing supply from older large holders. Pasted text ・The key short-term level remains $87,000. A breakout with stronger spot volume could open the way toward $90,000 and potentially the $95,000 zone reflected in options positioning. If $84,000 fails, the next key demand areas are around $82,500–$81,000. Pasted text ――――――――――――――――――― Sentiment ・Bitcoin has now failed to break above $87,000 three times since September 23. Sellers remain clearly active at higher levels, and market psychology favors buying dips rather than aggressively chasing breakouts. Pasted text ・At the same time, Coinbase and OKX continue to show spot buying near $85,000. The market is therefore not turning broadly bearish. Instead, buyers remain active below while profit-taking dominates near $87,000. Pasted text ・One analysis suggests that investors who purchased Bitcoin near previous highs one to two years ago still hold average unrealized losses of approximately −32%, while short-term holders have returned to profit. Losses are therefore concentrated in a relatively specific cohort. Pasted text ・This one-to-two-year cohort may generate breakeven selling as prices approach their acquisition levels. This could help explain why Bitcoin struggles to break higher despite visible demand around current prices. Pasted text ・The S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Nvidia are trading at or near record highs, while Bitcoin remains capped around $87,000. This means Bitcoin’s weakness cannot be explained simply by a broad Risk-Off environment. Risk capital may be concentrating heavily in AI and mega-cap equities. Pasted text ・Short interest in the Russell 2000 has reportedly risen to 8%, showing that the U.S. equity market is not uniformly Risk-On. Strong capital concentration in large AI-related stocks is occurring alongside caution toward smaller companies. Pasted text ・A State Street survey reportedly found that 51% of institutional investors expect crypto to become mainstream, while intended future allocations rise from 11% to 17%. However, this reflects survey expectations rather than confirmed capital inflows. Pasted text ・Overall sentiment is therefore bullish over the medium to long term, but cautious in the short term. This is not a FOMO-driven market; the key question is whether new buyers can absorb existing holder supply. ――――――――――――――――――― U.S. Traditional Markets ・On October 6, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield declined from around 5.31% to approximately 5.28%, while the Dollar Index fell by about 0.3%. This helped support Bitcoin’s temporary rebound. Pasted text ・However, the September ISM Services PMI remained in expansion territory at 54.9, while Prices Paid rose to 74.0. The combination of resilient activity and persistent inflation pressure makes a sustained decline in long-term yields more difficult. Pasted text ・ADP weekly employment data also showed the four-week average of job gains increasing from 22,500 to 23,750 per week. Labor conditions remain relatively resilient, which does not fully support expectations for rapid monetary easing. Pasted text ・U.S. 20-year and 30-year Treasury yields remain near 5.7%. One explanation is the combination of U.S. government debt above $40 trillion, heavy Treasury issuance, and reduced central-bank demand, which may be pushing up the term premium. Pasted text ・Yields on lower-quality U.S. corporate debt have also risen by more than four percentage points this year, while credit spreads have widened. Equity indices may be at record highs, but credit markets are showing signs of tighter financial conditions. Pasted text ・The U.S. equity market itself remains highly divided. The S&P 500 is at record highs, while Equal Weight indices and small caps remain relatively weak. The current environment is closer to “capital concentration in winners” than broad-based Risk-On. Pasted text ・The U.S. trade deficit widened by 13.7% in August to $105.6 billion. Strong imports may indicate resilient domestic demand, but increased oil imports could also have implications for inflation and long-term yields. Pasted text ・U.S. Treasury buybacks are not QE, but they may improve Treasury market liquidity. For Bitcoin, the important question is not the buyback amount itself, but whether 20-year and 30-year yields begin to peak and decline. Pasted text ――――――――――――――――――― Overall Assessment The approximately 14,300 BTC outflow from Binance, low exchange inflows, continued Coinbase and OKX spot buying, the roughly 13% decline in futures Open Interest, and the strength of medium-term on-chain indicators such as STH Realized Price and NUPL justify raising the overall score from 70 to 71. However, the latest confirmed daily ETF flow showed approximately $89.9 million in net outflows, whale selling remains present, Bitcoin has failed at $87,000 for the third time, and U.S. ultra-long Treasury yields remain near 5.7% while credit spreads are widening. The improvement in reduced sell-side pressure is clear, but confirmation of strong new spot demand is still lacking. The 7-day moving average rises from 68.57 to 69.86, while the 14-day moving average edges down from 69.57 to 69.36. With the current score of 71 above both averages, the market remains in a medium-term bullish environment. The current structure is best described as: “Medium-Term Bullish Structure Intact, but Short-Term Progress Depends on New Buying Power Breaking Through $87K.” Today’s Key Points to Watch: ① Whether large Binance outflows continue ② Whether Coinbase and OKX spot buying remains strong ③ Whether October 6 ETF flows return to net inflows ④ Whether whale and Binance futures selling begins to fade ⑤ Whether Bitcoin can break through $87,000 with strong spot volume

ビットコイン、今日のNADA NEWS @nadanews_com への寄稿は、中間選挙の後は期待が出来るという内容です。 ●米中間選挙後12カ月のS&P500は、1950年以降の19回すべてで上昇してきた。ただし、これは途中の下落や今回の例外を否定するものではない。
●ビットコインにも政治的不確実性の後退は追い風になり得るが、上昇の持続性を左右するのは、金利、規制の進展、現物資金の流入である。 nadanews.com/370826/?utm_sou… ショート動画 youtube.com/shorts/-RGDWDX0W…

The Strong 12 Months After U.S. Midterms: Could Bitcoin Benefit? via @cryptoquant_com Since 1950, the S&P 500 has risen in all 19 twelve-month periods following U.S. midterm elections, averaging 15.4%. The third presidential year has also historically been the strongest. Reduced political uncertainty may support risk-taking, but these patterns do not prove causation. Bitcoin gained 24.5%, 44.9% and 92.3% in the twelve months after the 2014, 2018 and 2022 midterms. Yet it fell 45.5% in the first month after the 2018 election. Three observations cannot establish a reliable rule. CryptoQuant's chart shows that price and active addresses can diverge. Addresses are not individual buyers and do not directly measure ETF demand. Interest rates and regulation remain critical. The U.S. 10-year yield was 5.28% on October 2, while a September procedural vote on the CLARITY Act failed. Clear election results do not automatically ease financial conditions or resolve regulatory uncertainty. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $241.1 million in net inflows from September 28 to October 2. After the election, watch whether yields stabilize, buying persists and regulation advances. Political relief could help BTC, but sustained gains still require supportive market conditions. History offers context, not a guarantee. cryptoquant.com/quicktake/6a…?

📊【XWIN CAPITAL INDEX｜October 6, 2026】 Overall Score: 70 / 100 ・80–100 = Strong Bullish Environment ・60–79 = Bullish Environment ・40–59 = Neutral / No Clear Direction ・20–39 = Bearish Environment ・0–19 = Strong Bearish Environment 7-Day Moving Average: 68.57 ↑ 14-Day Moving Average: 69.57 ↑ Market direction: “Bullish conditions remain intact. However, improving U.S. spot demand is being offset by whale selling and historically high long-term Treasury yields, creating a strong tug-of-war.” In brief: Improving Coinbase Premium, continued BTC ETF inflows, Bitcoin outflows from exchanges, and better stablecoin flows are clear positives. On the other hand, large whale selling, rejection near $87,000, and U.S. 20-year and 30-year Treasury yields near 5.7% remain powerful headwinds. The score is lowered slightly from 72 to 70. ――――――――――――――――――― Market Summary ・The biggest improvement today is that Coinbase Premium is beginning to move into positive territory. After the recent BTC decline, Coinbase began showing buying activity before other exchanges, suggesting that previously weak U.S. spot demand may be recovering. Pasted text Pasted text ・U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded +1,918 BTC, or approximately $164 million, in one-day net inflows, and +2,645 BTC, or roughly $226 million, over seven days. Institutional demand through ETFs continues despite unstable price action. Pasted text ・On a weekly basis, U.S. Bitcoin ETFs also recorded approximately $240 million in net inflows, marking a third consecutive positive week. Institutional buyers have not exited the market despite a difficult macro environment. Pasted text ・Strategy also purchased an additional 334 BTC, bringing total holdings to around 848,000 BTC. ETF investors, corporate treasury buyers, and Coinbase spot buyers are all present simultaneously. Pasted text ・However, Whale CVD indicates that some large whales have been leading the recent selling. The issue is not the absence of buyers; rather, large-holder selling is currently stronger than buying demand. Pasted text ・Approximately 6,036 BTC flowed out of exchanges over the past seven days. This reduces immediately sellable supply, although exchange withdrawals should not automatically be interpreted as long-term accumulation. Pasted text ・Stablecoin flows remain net negative, but outflows are shrinking and moving closer to neutral. This does not yet indicate large new capital inflows, but it does suggest that capital leakage from the crypto market is slowing. Pasted text ・The largest external headwind remains long-term interest rates. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield is around 5.34%, the 20-year around 5.735%, and the 30-year close to 5.7%. The fact that Bitcoin has not broken down under this pressure itself suggests relatively strong internal demand. Pasted text ――――――――――――――――――― On-Chain & Technical Trends ・The Puell Multiple has moved above 1.0 and reached an 11-month high. This may indicate that Bitcoin is moving out of a prolonged accumulation phase and into the next stage of the market cycle. Pasted text ・The 6,036 BTC in net exchange outflows remains constructive. At the very least, the market is not showing a broad-based rush of Bitcoin back onto exchanges. Pasted text ・In derivatives, Open Interest increased 1.39% to approximately $25.85 billion. Funding rose to 0.00463%, but remains below its seven-day average of 0.00531%. Long exposure is increasing, but leverage is not yet at an extreme level. Pasted text ・However, Whale CVD remains seller-dominated. The existence of ETF and Coinbase demand has still not been enough to push Bitcoin through $87,000, highlighting the importance of large-holder supply. Pasted text ・The Exchange Whale Ratio is also near the upper end of its three-year range. However, transfers above 1,000 BTC are not structurally increasing, so the data do not support the view that the largest whales are all rushing to exchanges. Pasted text ・Bitcoin spot volume has recovered from roughly three-year lows in July. Binance volume rose from around $42 billion to over $50 billion, while Bybit and Kraken also improved. However, the recovery remains modest, and a further increase in spot participation is needed for a sustained breakout. Pasted text ・The $84,300–$84,500 area is the first major support zone. A break below it would bring $82,500 into focus, followed by another Buy Wall near $81,000. Pasted text ・On the upside, selling remains heavy around $86,000–$87,000. A breakout through $87,000 accompanied by improving Whale CVD and continued ETF/spot demand would be the most important confirmation of a new upside phase. Pasted text ――――――――――――――――――― Sentiment ・The Fear & Greed Index remains in the 60–70 Greed range. Sentiment is still bullish, but the market has not entered an extreme FOMO phase. Pasted text ・Bitcoin approached $87,000 before being rejected again. This was the second failed breakout near $87,000 within one week, indicating that traders remain cautious about chasing higher prices. Pasted text ・The improvement in Coinbase Premium is more important than sentiment alone. It suggests that U.S. spot investors may be stepping in to buy price declines. Pasted text ・There is now a clear divergence between participant groups: ETFs, Strategy, and Coinbase buyers are accumulating, while some large whales are selling. The market is not uniformly bullish; ownership is being redistributed. Pasted text ・For long-term holders, the recent correction did not push the entire market into losses as occurred in 2022. Large holders have also moved back into profit following the recovery. Pasted text ・The NASDAQ has reached another all-time high, its third record in the past 10 trading sessions. Risk assets are not experiencing broad capital flight despite high rates, which is supportive for Bitcoin. Pasted text ・On the regulatory side, the CFTC is moving from enforcement-led regulation toward advance rulemaking, while FinCEN has withdrawn earlier proposals related to self-custody. Regulatory predictability is improving. Pasted text ・However, spot trading volume remains insufficient. The current environment is best described as: “There are buyers below, but not yet enough buyers willing to chase the market higher.” ――――――――――――――――――― U.S. Traditional Markets ・U.S. long-term and ultra-long-term yields remain the biggest risk. The 20-year yield is around 5.735% and the 30-year near 5.7%, creating strong valuation and liquidity headwinds for Bitcoin. Pasted text ・The key issue is that long-term yields remain high even as expectations for additional Fed rate hikes have fallen sharply. The market’s focus has shifted from “further rate hikes” to long-term yields driven by fiscal deficits, Treasury supply, and term premium. Pasted text ・The September ISM Services PMI declined to 54.9 but remained above 50, indicating continued expansion. At the same time, Prices Paid rose to 74.0, creating an uncomfortable combination of slower growth and persistent inflation pressure. Pasted text ・U.S. consumer confidence fell to 81.9, marking a fourth consecutive monthly decline. Financial markets remain strong, while household economic sentiment is deteriorating. Pasted text ・In energy markets, the issue is no longer just crude prices. Tanker freight costs and refining capacity are emerging as new inflation risks, with some shipping routes reportedly up around 319% since July. Pasted text ・The DXY has also risen to around 102.53, reportedly its highest level since April 2025. A stronger dollar combined with high long-term yields is normally a significant headwind for crypto assets. Pasted text ・Even so, the NASDAQ is at record highs, the S&P 500 is near record territory, and Bitcoin remains above $80,000. The market is showing a rare structure in which macro conditions are hostile, but capital is not abandoning risk assets. Pasted text ・TLT reportedly attracted $1.7 billion last week and $5.6 billion in August. Investors are beginning to buy long-duration Treasuries at these high yields. If this eventually caps or reverses long-term yields, it could become an important positive shift for Bitcoin. Pasted text ――――――――――――――――――― Overall Assessment Improving Coinbase Premium, approximately $164 million in one-day BTC ETF inflows and $226 million over seven days, Strategy’s additional purchase, net BTC exchange outflows, and the Puell Multiple breaking above 1.0 all confirm that Bitcoin’s internal buyer base is becoming clearer. However, Whale CVD selling, an elevated Exchange Whale Ratio, weak spot trading volume, repeated rejection at $87,000, and U.S. 20-year and 30-year Treasury yields near 5.7% remain major constraints. Therefore, the overall score is lowered slightly from 72 to 70. The 7-day moving average rises from 68.00 to 68.57, while the 14-day moving average rises from 69.36 to 69.57. With the overall score of 70 still above both averages, the medium-term bullish environment remains intact. However, the current structure is best described as “Improving Internal Demand, but Short-Term Whale Selling and Long-Term Rates Are Preventing Acceleration.” Today’s Key Points to Watch: ① Whether Coinbase Premium remains positive ② Whether ETF net inflows continue ③ Whether Whale CVD selling begins to fade ④ Whether the $84,300–$84,500 Buy Wall holds ⑤ Whether Bitcoin can break through $86,000–$87,000 with spot-led demand

いよいよ明日開催です📢 第4回「BCCC Blockchain Lounge」 今回は「BCCC税制部会 始動」をテーマに、暗号資産税制を徹底討論します！ 税制部会長の八木橋さん、副部会長の村上さんとともに、私もDeFi部会長として登壇します。 暗号資産の税制はこれからどう変わるのか？ 分離課税はどうなるのか？ 個人投資家にとって何が変わるのか？ 税制の専門家のお二人に、私からもズバッと聞いていきます🎙️ 📅10月6日（火）18:00〜19:00 📍Xスペース ぜひご参加ください！ twitter.com/i/spaces/1mGPaZN…

📊【XWIN CAPITAL INDEX｜October 5, 2026】 Overall Score: 72 / 100 ・80–100 = Strong Bullish Environment ・60–79 = Bullish Environment ・40–59 = Neutral / No Clear Direction ・20–39 = Bearish Environment ・0–19 = Strong Bearish Environment 7-Day Moving Average: 68.00 ↑ 14-Day Moving Average: 69.36 ↑ Market direction: “Bullish conditions remain intact. Declining exchange supply, ETF accumulation, and restrained selling by long-term holders are improving the medium-term structure. However, weak U.S. spot demand and renewed leverage growth remain key risks.” In brief: Bitcoin outflows from exchanges, rising ETF holdings, record-high long-term holder balances, and improvements in NUPL and the Puell Multiple are all positive. The score is raised from 70 to 72. However, Coinbase Premium remains weak and Open Interest and funding are beginning to rise again, so the market has not yet reached the 80+ ‘Strong Bullish Environment’ zone. ――――――――――――――――――― Market Summary ・Approximately 6,036 BTC flowed out of exchanges over the past seven days. This is positive from a supply perspective, but Open Interest and funding have also rebounded, indicating that leverage demand is returning alongside spot demand. Pasted text ・Around 23,700 BTC have left Binance over the 11 days since September 22. During the earlier phase, funding remained relatively low, suggesting a structure driven more by spot accumulation than by futures leverage. Pasted text ・Total Bitcoin reserves across exchanges have fallen to approximately 2.68 million BTC, the lowest level since 2023. Structural exchange supply continues to decline. Pasted text ・Long-term holder balances are reportedly at record highs, while existing holders are not rushing to sell. Coin Days Destroyed has also declined, suggesting that selling pressure from LTHs remains limited. Pasted text Pasted text ・U.S. Bitcoin ETFs have increased their holdings by approximately 88,000 BTC since July. ETF holdings continued rising while Bitcoin advanced from roughly $59,500 to $85,000, confirming that institutional demand remains an important medium-term support. Pasted text ・However, Coinbase Premium has reportedly remained negative for 26 consecutive days, indicating that U.S. spot demand outside ETFs remains weak. This is currently the market’s biggest structural weakness. Pasted text ・Bitcoin spot trading volume has gradually recovered from its three-year low in July. Binance spot volume exceeded $50 billion in September, up from approximately $42 billion in July, but stronger participation will still be needed for a sustained breakout. Pasted text ・The market remains caught between “two walls.” ETFs and declining supply support the downside, while high interest rates, political uncertainty, and profit-taking continue to cap the upside. Pasted text ――――――――――――――――――― On-Chain & Technical Trends ・Exchange Bitcoin reserves at approximately 2.68 million BTC remain one of the most important medium-term indicators. The decline has continued across multiple market cycles, suggesting a structural reduction in readily available supply. Pasted text ・NUPL never fell into negative territory during the recent bearish phase and recovered sharply from +0.09 to +0.38. This suggests that the broader market retained unrealized profits while recovering structurally. Pasted text ・The Puell Multiple has moved above the sub-1.0 zone that persisted for roughly 10 months and reached its highest level in 11 months. From a miner-revenue perspective, this may indicate that the bottoming phase has ended. Pasted text ・Coin Days Destroyed among long-term holders declined from 688 at the end of August to 457. Despite the price recovery, LTHs have not moved aggressively to realize profits, which is constructive. Pasted text ・Approximately 31.94% of Bitcoin supply held for 6–24 months remains below its acquisition price, creating potential overhead supply. A move above roughly $88,900 would improve the profit structure for the 6–12 month holder group and could reduce selling pressure. Pasted text ・In derivatives, Open Interest reportedly declined by 6% on Binance and 15% on both Deribit and Gate.io, indicating that some leverage cooling has already occurred. This is healthy from a liquidation-risk perspective. Pasted text ・However, the latest seven-day data also show renewed increases in OI and funding, suggesting that long positions are beginning to rebuild after deleveraging. Whether spot demand keeps pace will be important. Pasted text ・The largest upside liquidation cluster is reportedly around $90,000. There are also important liquidation zones near $83,000 and $75,000, meaning volatility could accelerate sharply in either direction if the current range breaks. Pasted text ――――――――――――――――――― Sentiment ・The Fear & Greed Index is in the 65–72 Greed range. Sentiment remains bullish, but the market has not yet entered an extreme FOMO phase. Pasted text ・CryptoQuant’s CEO has argued that Bitcoin’s bear market ended during the summer, pointing to new capital inflows, reduced selling from OG whales, and rebuilding of long positions by large futures participants. Pasted text ・The key issue is not simply price, but who is buying and who has stopped selling. At present, ETFs, long-term holders, and selected large investors are driving the improvement in market structure. Pasted text ・Bitcoin has historically finished October higher roughly 77% of the time, supporting continued “Uptober” optimism. However, seasonality alone should not be used to raise the score. Pasted text ・Historically, Bitcoin’s first three days of October average approximately −0.66%, while 2026 is up around +1.40% from the end of September. So far, this year has performed better than the historical early-October pattern. Pasted text ・IBCI Daily remains at 42.86, which is closer to neutral or cautious sentiment than outright bullishness. The broader market has not fully shifted into a high-conviction risk-on phase. Pasted text ・Weekend CVD remained largely flat, while previously active whales appeared to pause. Monday’s return of trading volume and large-holder flows will be important to watch. Pasted text ・Long-term holder restraint and ETF demand support sentiment, but the continued weakness in Coinbase Premium means U.S. spot investors have not yet fully returned. ――――――――――――――――――― U.S. Traditional Markets ・Goldman Sachs economist Jan Hatzius has suggested that markets may be pricing in too much Fed tightening. If inflation remains soft, an additional rate hike could be delayed or skipped. Pasted text ・The main monetary-policy event this week is the FOMC Minutes. With CPI scheduled for the following week, markets will focus on how Fed officials are assessing rates, inflation, and employment. Pasted text ・The U.S. labor market is slowing, but announced layoffs in September were 20% lower year over year, while Q3 layoffs were 36% lower. This suggests that the economy has not yet entered a broad corporate-layoff cycle. Pasted text ・The U.S. household saving rate has fallen to 4.1%, its lowest level since 2022. Spending growth is outpacing disposable income, raising questions about the sustainability of consumer demand. Pasted text ・Large fiscal proposals, including the proposed $5,000 payment, are attracting market attention. If implemented, they could increase liquidity, but they remain political proposals and are not included in today’s score. Pasted text ・At the same time, large fiscal spending could increase inflation, Treasury issuance, and long-term yields. Therefore, it should not automatically be treated as bullish for Bitcoin. ・Progress on the CLARITY Act has stalled, and Congress is entering its pre-election recess. Legislative progress on crypto market structure is therefore pausing, making SEC and CFTC administrative actions relatively more important. Pasted text ・Meanwhile, discussions between BNY and Kraken parent Payward show that integration between traditional financial institutions and crypto infrastructure continues despite legislative uncertainty. Pasted text ――――――――――――――――――― Overall Assessment Bitcoin exchange outflows, exchange reserves falling to 2.68 million BTC, restrained selling by long-term holders, approximately 88,000 BTC of ETF accumulation since July, and improvements in NUPL and the Puell Multiple justify raising the overall score from 70 to 72. However, Coinbase Premium remains negative, spot trading volume has not fully recovered, and Open Interest and funding are beginning to rise again. The market is currently being supported by a combination of tightening supply and institutional demand, but a move into a Strong Bullish Environment will require a clearer recovery in U.S. spot demand beyond ETFs. The 7-day moving average rises from 67.71 to 68.00, while the 14-day moving average rises from 67.93 to 69.36. With the current score of 72 above both averages, the market can be described as “Medium-Term Improvement Intact, Short-Term Momentum Turning Higher, with Early Signs of Accelerating Improvement.” Today’s Key Points to Watch: ① Whether Coinbase Premium turns positive ② Whether spot trading volume continues to recover ③ Whether ETF demand and restrained LTH selling continue ④ Whether rising OI and funding create excessive leverage ⑤ Whether Bitcoin begins a spot-led move toward the $90,000 upside liquidation zone

実は、CryptoQuant CEOのKi Young Ju氏 @ki_young_ju とはビジネスパートナーであり、師匠です。 彼は、 Bitcoin MagazineのYouTube番組「BMTV」 @BitcoinMagazine @BitcoinMagJapan で最新のビットコイン市場見通しを語り、「ビットコインの弱気相場はこの夏に終わり、現在は新しいサイクルの初期段階にある」との見方を示しました。 重要なのは、「安値から3〜5倍」という価格見通しだけではありません。新しい資本が市場に入り、OGクジラの売り圧力が弱まり、先物市場では大口投資家が底値付近で再びロングポジションを積み上げています。 特に注目したいオンチェーン指標は3つあります。 ・1つ目はPnL Indexです。365日移動平均はまだ弱いものの、Ki氏は収益性やバリュエーションに関する複数の指標で重要な転換点が現れていると見ています。 ・2つ目はAccumulation Addressesへの流入で、直近では大きく増加し、30日移動平均も上向いています。 ・3つ目はMVRVです。過去のサイクルでは4〜5を超える極端な水準まで上昇しましたが、今回はそこまで過熱しておらず、上昇時の熱狂も下落時の悲観も以前より穏やかになっている可能性があります。 ETFへの資金流入も改善していますが、最終的に誰が買っているのかまでは分かりません。だからこそ、今後はカストディウォレットへの資金移動を見ることがより重要になります。 より大きなテーマは、市場構造そのものの変化です。ビットコインは、個人投資家とOGクジラ中心の市場から、ETF、機関投資家、カストディ、マクロ環境、規制の影響をより強く受ける市場へと変わりつつあります。 これから重要なのは、「誰が買っているのか」「誰が売るのをやめたのか」「新しい資本が入り続けているのか」です。

CryptoQuant CEO: Bitcoin’s Bear Market Ended This Summer — A New Buyer Base Is Emerging via @cryptoquant_com CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju @ki_young_ju recently shared his latest Bitcoin outlook on Bitcoin Magazine’s YouTube program BMTV , saying Bitcoin’s bear market ended this summer and that the market is now in the early stage of a new cycle. The key point is not just his “3–5x from the lows” outlook. Fresh capital is entering, OG whale selling is easing, and large futures players have rebuilt long exposure near the bottom. Three on-chain signals are especially notable. First, the PnL Index 365-day MA is still soft, but Ki sees broader profitability and valuation metrics reaching important inflection points. Second, inflows to Accumulation Addresses have risen sharply, with the 30-day average also turning higher. Third, MVRV is far less extreme than in past cycles: earlier peaks reached 4–5+, while this cycle has stayed much lower, suggesting both euphoria and capitulation are becoming milder. ETF flows are improving, but we still cannot know exactly who the end buyers are. That is why custodial flows matter more now. The bigger story is a changing market structure: Bitcoin is shifting from a retail-and-OG-whale market toward one increasingly shaped by ETFs, institutions, custodians, macro conditions, and regulation. The key questions are: Who is buying? Who has stopped selling? Is fresh capital still coming in? cryptoquant.com/quicktake/6a…’s-Bear-Market-Ended-This-Summer-—-A-New-Buyer-Base-Is-Emerging

JUST IN: CryptoQuant CEO says the bottom is in for Bitcoin and expects a "3-5x from the lows" this bull cycle 👀

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Sharp framing, but the ETF wall deserves a harder look: Oct 1's +$102.7M net was the first green day after ~$2.4B of five-day outflows — and IBIT's +$195.6M was nearly 2x the headline while everyone else bled. One buyer's flow, not a broad bid. Yields press harder when the only bid is BlackRock's.

📊【XWIN CAPITAL INDEX｜October 4, 2026】 Overall Score: 70 / 100 ・80–100 = Strong Bullish Environment ・60–79 = Bullish Environment ・40–59 = Neutral / No Clear Direction ・20–39 = Bearish Environment ・0–19 = Strong Bearish Environment 7-Day Moving Average: 67.71 ↑ 14-Day Moving Average: 67.93 ↑ Market direction: “Bullish conditions remain intact with gradual improvement. However, slowing ETF inflows and elevated U.S. long-term yields continue to create an ‘upper and lower wall’ around the market.” In brief: Falling exchange BTC balances, renewed Accumulation Signals, a sharp recovery in Apparent Demand, and continued IBIT buying are positive. On the other hand, overall ETF inflows have slowed significantly, while the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield remains above 5.3%. The score is raised slightly from 68 to 70, but a move into a Strong Bullish Environment will require broader spot buying beyond ETFs. Pasted text ――――――――――――――――――― Market Summary ・Bitcoin is currently caught between two opposing forces. Rising U.S. long-term yields, profit-taking, and political and fiscal uncertainty are limiting the upside, while ETF demand and on-chain accumulation are supporting the downside. Pasted text ・Approximately 23,700 BTC have flowed out of Binance over the 11 days since September 22. The decline in immediately sellable Bitcoin supply on exchanges is clearly positive for medium-term supply-demand conditions. Pasted text ・Total Bitcoin balances on exchanges have also fallen to approximately 2.68 million BTC, the lowest level since at least September 2023. This suggests continued movement toward long-term holding and off-exchange custody. Pasted text ・Bitcoin’s Apparent Demand is recovering rapidly after bottoming, with some analysis suggesting that it could turn positive as early as next week. This is an important signal for confirming a broader recovery in spot demand. Pasted text ・However, weekly inflows into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs totaled only 594 BTC, down sharply from approximately 27,800 BTC the previous week. The pace of ETF support has clearly slowed. Pasted text ・BlackRock’s IBIT, however, reportedly purchased approximately $195.6 million worth of BTC on the previous day and has accumulated about $1.57 billion net over the past month. Overall ETF momentum is slowing, but BlackRock-related demand remains strong. Pasted text ・Funding remains close to neutral while Bitcoin continues to leave exchanges. This suggests that the market is not being driven primarily by excessive leverage. Pasted text ・The largest headwind remains the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield, which has risen to around 5.34%. Concerns over fiscal deficits, inflation, and Treasury supply continue to cap upside in Bitcoin and other risk assets. Pasted text ――――――――――――――――――― On-Chain & Technical Trends ・Bitcoin’s short-term Accumulation Signal has turned on again. Buyers continue accumulating at current levels even after the recent selloff, indicating improving accumulation conditions. Pasted text ・The recovery in Apparent Demand is accelerating. Demand is not yet definitively positive, but the pace of deterioration has narrowed significantly. Pasted text ・The combination of approximately 23,700 BTC in Binance outflows over 11 days and exchange balances falling to 2.68 million BTC represents a meaningful improvement in the supply side of the market. Pasted text ・NUPL remained above zero even during the deterioration, bottoming at roughly +0.09, and has since recovered to approximately +0.38. This suggests that the broader market maintained unrealized profits while the structure recovered. Pasted text ・Bitcoin futures Net Position Delta is gradually rising, suggesting that bullish positioning is quietly being rebuilt even while price remains relatively range-bound. Pasted text ・Hedge funds on CME still hold significant Bitcoin short positions, but some are gradually increasing long exposure. If positioning continues to shift, it could create additional upside potential. Pasted text ・Approximately $246.8 million in long positions were liquidated over the past 24 hours. This helps reduce excessive leverage but also confirms that short-term volatility remains elevated. Pasted text ・The $83,000–$84,000 area remains an important short-term support zone, while approximately $87,500 remains the key resistance level. The market is currently testing supply and demand within this range. Pasted text ――――――――――――――――――― Sentiment ・The Crypto Fear & Greed Index stands at 72, keeping sentiment firmly on the bullish side. However, excessive optimism can also increase the risk of profit-taking. Pasted text ・Bitcoin’s rebound remains largely whale-driven. The Exchange Whale Ratio is elevated, while retail participation remains relatively low. Broader retail demand has not yet returned. Pasted text ・Weekend CVD data suggest that overall market activity has declined while some large buyers continue to accumulate quietly. There are no major buy or sell walls, indicating a relatively calm range market for now. Pasted text ・Bitcoin dominance is approaching 60%, while USDT dominance has fallen to approximately 6.3%. This may indicate that capital is rotating out of stablecoins and back into crypto risk assets. Pasted text ・Seasonality also supports bullish sentiment. Bitcoin has reportedly finished October higher in 10 of the past 13 years, with an average return of approximately +18.5%. However, seasonality should remain a secondary indicator rather than a primary signal. Pasted text ・Long-term stablecoin flows are still described as net negative, suggesting that a sustained bull market will require a more durable return of fresh liquidity. Pasted text ・At the same time, short-term stablecoin flows have reportedly begun shifting back toward net inflows, which may represent an early improvement. The key is whether this continues over several days. Pasted text ・Greater regulatory clarity from the SEC, including its work on crypto custody rules, remains supportive for medium-term institutional sentiment. Pasted text ――――――――――――――――――― U.S. Traditional Markets ・The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield has risen to around 5.34%, making it the most important macro headwind for Bitcoin. Elevated yields are offsetting some of the positive effects from improving ETF and on-chain demand. Pasted text ・The rise in long-term yields reflects concerns over the U.S. fiscal deficit, inflation, and massive financing needs. Weak employment data alone have not been enough to produce a sustained decline in long-term rates. ・The U.S. Treasury is planning roughly $6 billion in bond buybacks, but because those purchases are funded through new issuance, they should not be viewed simply as a direct injection of liquidity into financial markets. Pasted text ・Middle East oil exports have reportedly recovered to around 98% of pre-war levels. If energy prices stabilize, this could ease pressure on inflation expectations and long-term yields, which would be supportive for Bitcoin. Pasted text ・Around 2 million Americans have reportedly been unemployed for more than six months, representing approximately 27% of all unemployed workers. This suggests that weakness is building beneath the headline unemployment rate. Pasted text ・This week’s key U.S. indicators include the ISM Services PMI, ADP employment, mortgage rates, initial jobless claims, and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. Growth, employment, and inflation expectations will influence Bitcoin primarily through Treasury yields. Pasted text ・U.S. data-center construction spending reportedly rose 73% year over year, reaching an annualized record of roughly $85 billion. AI investment supports economic growth, but the enormous funding demand may also contribute to upward pressure on long-term rates. Pasted text ・Fiscal risks are also appearing in Europe, with rising French government bond yields and broader pressure across European financial markets. The global rise in long-term yields remains a wider risk for asset valuations. Pasted text ――――――――――――――――――― Overall Assessment The approximately 23,700 BTC outflow from Binance, declining exchange balances, renewed Accumulation Signals, rapidly improving Apparent Demand, and continued IBIT buying justify raising the overall score from 68 to 70. The internal spot-market structure is improving compared with the previous day. However, total weekly spot ETF inflows have fallen sharply to only 594 BTC, while the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield remains above 5.3%. Retail participation and long-term stablecoin inflows also remain relatively weak. Therefore, the market remains “Bullish, but requiring new buyers to break through resistance.” The 7-day moving average rises to 67.71, while the 14-day moving average rises to 67.93. Both short- and medium-term trends are improving, but with the current score of 70 only modestly above both averages, this is best classified as gradual bullish improvement rather than accelerating improvement. Today’s Key Points to Watch: ① Whether ETF inflows reaccelerate ② Whether Apparent Demand turns positive ③ Whether spot buying expands beyond ETFs and into broader retail participation ④ Whether the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield retreats from the 5.3% range ⑤ Whether Bitcoin holds the $83,000–$84,000 support zone and breaks through $87,500 resistance