Pucón • Araucanía, Chile 🇨🇱 10 años (y dos días) de diferencia.

2000’li yıllarda bilgisayar başında vakit geçirmek böyleydi.

🇨🇱 SANTIAGO DE CHILE, CHILE

Es bueno tener memoria y un buen archivo. Esto fue publicado el 25 de octubre de 2019, el día de la marcha del millón. Pase y vea a los Perso nivel Dios que se subían al carro. #18Octubre

砂浜でDJやってんのか〜と思ったら、森林で波はVJだった🌊 波を木に投影するだけで頭がバグりそうな空間になりますね、ナイスアイデア

Por fin alguien lo explica.

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I am a member of the Norwegian Nobel Committee. There are five of us. Five people, appointed by a parliament most of the planet could not find on a map, who decide, once a year, which human being the world has agreed to call good. I know. I know. I think about it on the tram. We meet in a building on Henrik Ibsens gate, a street named after a man who wrote almost exclusively about people discovering they are frauds, which nobody on the committee finds funny except me. There is a room with a long table and the portraits of the dead laureates looking down, Mandela, the Dalai Lama, a great many earnest men in spectacles, and one portrait we do not discuss, which is Kissinger, 1973, awarded while the bombs were still falling, after which two of our predecessors resigned and the satirist Tom Lehrer said political satire was now obsolete. We keep him on the wall. A reminder. Every family has the uncle. It is October in Oslo, which means the sun gives up around four in the afternoon like a civil servant, and it rains the particular Norwegian rain that isn’t quite falling, just hanging there, judging you. I arrive with wet shoes. I always arrive with wet shoes. There is coffee, because this is Norway and there is always coffee, we drink more of it per person than almost anyone alive, and someone’s wife has sent kanelboller, the cinnamon buns, and we sit, five Norwegians, damp, caffeinated, sugared, and we decide the moral standing of the entire species. Let me tell you how it actually works, because the world imagines a cathedral and it is, I promise you, a book club with a mandate. 287 nominations this year. 208 people, 79 organizations. Anyone can nominate, that’s the secret nobody understands: a professor, a parliamentarian, a former laureate, so the “nominee” list is meaningless, it’s a suggestion box, and every autumn some congressman nominates his own golden retriever and the press writes “SHORTLISTED.” Nobody is shortlisted. There is no short list the public ever sees. There is us, and the coffee, and the rain, and the portraits, and a Norwegian stubbornness that is older than the prize itself. We read reports. The institute’s advisers write them, thick dull documents, and we argue. Our chairman told the BBC once that in the final meeting “there is a high temperature.” High temperature, for a Norwegian, means someone slightly raised an eyebrow and then apologized for it. We don’t do high temperature. We do a long silence, and then Kristin says “well,” and everyone knows exactly what “well” meant, and it’s settled. That’s our shouting. “Well.” You’d have to be raised here to hear the violence in it. Now. This year. I will not say the name, because we never say the name, but you know the name. A certain head of state wanted this prize the way a child wants a thing in a shop window, which is to say loudly, and in public, and with the full belief that wanting it was itself the argument. He said he deserved it. He said he’d ended eight wars, a number that grew most times he said it, like a fish. He had other heads of state phone us. Israel’s prime minister posted it on the internet, “Give him the Nobel.” The leaders of Cambodia and Pakistan announced they’d nominated him, as though announcing it were part of it, as though we tally mentions. A man flew around the globe collecting endorsements for a Norwegian committee the way you’d collect signatures for a petition to the council about a noisy dog. And here, uff da, is the detail I treasure, the one that makes me smile into my coffee. The nomination deadline is the 31st of January. He took office on the 20th. So for all the phone calls, all the posts, all the gilded lobbying, the only nominations that could possibly count for this year’s prize were filed in the first eleven days of his term, before he had, by his own arithmetic, ended a single one of the eight wars. He campaigned all year for a prize whose window had shut while he was still hanging up his coat. We didn’t have to reject him. The calendar did. We just watched. Norwegians are very good at watching. We have long winters. People think we sit there weighing his deeds. We don’t. That’s the thing I can’t make the world understand. We’re not grading his homework. We don’t owe anyone the prize for a ceasefire, however real, however loud the announcement. “He made peace” is not a sentence that ends in a medal, the way he believes it does, the way he believes every good thing ends in his name on it. The will of a dead Swede says the prize goes to whoever did the most for fraternity between nations. A dead Swede, I should add, who made his entire fortune inventing dynamite and selling arms, and spent his last years horrified at his own obituary, which called him a merchant of death, and so bought his way to immortality as a man of peace. The whole prize is one guilty arms dealer’s attempt to launder his name. We are, all of us, administering a dead man’s public relations. I find this clarifying. It keeps me humble. It should keep everyone humble, and it keeps, by my count, no one humble at all. So who did we give it to? An eighty-five-year-old woman. A judge. Born in Durban, under apartheid, granddaughter of a Tamil man who came to South Africa as indentured labor, a bus driver’s daughter from the poor Indian quarter, who became the first non-white woman to run a law practice in her province, who defended Mandela’s people when defending them was dangerous, who sat on the Rwanda tribunal and the court at the Hague, and who, at eighty-five, is right now a judge weighing whether a genocide is a genocide. When we told the world, our chairman said the rule of law “underpins the system we have set up to ensure peace,” and that “peace requires justice.” She wasn’t even in Oslo. She was in Nuremberg. In courtroom 600. The actual room where they tried the Nazis. You cannot stage that. God staged that, and God, it turns out, is a better satirist than any of us. She did not phone us. She did not post. No prime minister demanded it for her on the internet. She had, as far as our deliberations are concerned, the one qualification the loud man could never manufacture, which is that she wanted the work and not the medal. The medal finds those people. It flees the ones who chase it. This is not a rule we wrote. It’s just the only pattern the hundred-odd years of our mistakes has ever shown. The reaction from across the ocean was immediate. His spokesman posted that we “place politics over peace.” Ja. Perhaps. We’re five damp pensioners in a rainy city; of course it’s political, it was always political, it was political when we gave it to a sitting American president nine months into his first term for the promise of things he had not yet done, and we have been quietly embarrassed about that one for fifteen years, so believe me, we had a particular reason this year to prefer a woman with fifty years of verdicts behind her over a man with eight wars in front of him and a deadline already behind him. Here is what he will never understand, the thing I’d tell him on the tram if he ever took one. We are the one prize he cannot buy, cannot post his way to, cannot have a friendly dictator phone in for him. Not because we’re incorruptible, nei, we’re as vain and wrong and human as the portraits on our wall. But because the entire point of the thing, the only power a small cold country’s book club has ever held, is that it goes to the person not performing the wanting. The moment you demand it, you’ve proven you don’t understand what it’s for, and proving that is itself the disqualification. He ran the most expensive campaign in the history of the prize and the campaign was the reason. He was never losing to Navi Pillay. He was losing to the concept. It’s dark now. Four o’clock dark. The buns are gone. Kristin said “well” an hour ago and we all went home. I’m on the tram with my wet shoes, and somewhere across the water a very powerful man is explaining to a camera that the prize is rigged, that we’re corrupt, that he’ll win it next year, and he genuinely might, we’re only five idiots and we’ve been wrong before, Kissinger is still on the wall. But not this year. This year an old woman in Nuremberg, in the room where the law once stared down the exact kind of man who thinks wanting a thing loudly enough should make it his, got a phone call she didn’t ask for. That’s the job. We don’t reward the man who ends the war and announces it. We reward the woman who spent fifty years deciding what a war was. He’ll never see the difference. That’s rather the whole point of him. Takk for i dag. I have to change trams.

PROTECT THE REAL DATA CENTERS

В конце осени в Киото поезда замедляются и гасят свет, чтобы пассажиры могли насладиться красотой пылающих клёнов. Около 280 деревьев в «Кленовом тоннеле» образуют яркий коридор из красных, оранжевых и золотистых листьев протяжённостью более 200 метров. После заката клёны

Most Popular Rock Bands: Rise & Fall (1960-2026) 🎸

Los cambios valóricos en la región han sido de magnitud. Aqui los que no se identifican con ningúna religión.

Aqui las religiones en el tiempo. Mientras el catolicismo disminuye, aumentan los que no tienen religión.

Topological world map: where only land borders matter.

Lo que está pasando con los fondos de pensiones chilenos me parece uno de los casos más interesantes de Administración de Riesgos que he visto recientemente, porque la historia no comienza con una decisión absurda. Comienza con una estrategia que tenía lógica, que funcionó muy bien y que, precisamente por eso, creció hasta convertirse en un riesgo enorme. Todo empezó con los retiros masivos de la pandemia, que dejaron a los fondos de pensión chilenos con menos liquidez. Para seguir ganando rentabilidad sin comprar enormes cantidades de bonos, empezaron a usar contratos llamados swaps de tasas de interés. Un ejemplo sencillo. Imagina que firmo un contrato que me asegura cobrar 4.5% durante diez años. Si las tasas del mercado bajan a 3.5%, mi contrato vale más, porque cobro más que el resto. Si suben a 5.5%, vale menos, porque estoy atrapado cobrando menos. Ese es, en esencia, el comportamiento de un bono, pero sin tener que pagar por él. La clave es que, con estos contratos, los fondos de pensión chilenos ganaban si las tasas de EE.UU. bajaban y perdían si subían. Durante un tiempo ganaron. El Fondo E, que se supone es el más conservador, tuvo un retorno real de 7.5% el año pasado, su mejor resultado desde 2022, según Bloomberg. El problema es que la apuesta siguió creciendo. Un gerente de renta fija lo describió como “una carrera por quién tenía más duración”, porque nadie quería quedarse atrás mientras las tasas bajaban. Según un análisis de Citigroup, la sensibilidad de los fondos de pensión chilenos a las tasas se multiplicó por más de doce en poco más de dos años. En números simples: de ganar o perder unos US$10.6 millones por cada 0.01% de movimiento en las tasas, pasaron a unos US$131 millones. Si las tasas subían 0.5%, la pérdida podía superar US$6,500 millones. Ahí es donde esto deja de ser una discusión sobre si la apuesta era buena o mala, y se convierte en una discusión de Administración de Riesgos. Un Administrador de Riesgos no tiene que adivinar hacia dónde van las tasas. Su trabajo es preguntar qué pasa si nos equivocamos. ¿Cuánto podemos perder? ¿Tenemos efectivo para responder si nos piden garantías? ¿Podemos esperar a que se recupere? ¿Y si nos obligan a salir justo en el peor momento? Eso fue lo que pasó. La guerra de Irán disparó el petróleo, las tasas de EE.UU. subieron a su nivel más alto en 24 años y las apuestas pasaron de una ganancia de US$1,400 millones a una pérdida de unos US$7,700 millones. Entre enero y septiembre, el Fondo E cayó 10.4%, y según Diario Financiero estos contratos explican toda su caída. Luego vino lo más doloroso. En abril, el regulador chileno limitó estos contratos y obligó a los fondos de pensión a reducirlos antes de noviembre. Mientras un contrato sigue abierto, siempre queda la esperanza de que las tasas bajen y la pérdida se recupere. Pero cerrarlo significa pagarle a la otra parte lo que vale en contra, y según Bloomberg hoy cerrarlos cuesta más que hace unos meses. La pérdida deja de ser temporal y pasa a ser definitiva. Esa es la gran lección. El error no fue usar swaps, que son herramientas normales. Tampoco fue necesariamente creer que las tasas iban a bajar. El error fue dejar que una apuesta que funcionaba creciera sin límite. La Administración de Riesgos no existe para evitar que uno se equivoque sobre el mercado. Existe para que, cuando inevitablemente uno se equivoque, la posición sea lo bastante pequeña para sobrevivir al error. Y queda una pregunta incómoda: ¿cómo terminó el fondo supuestamente más conservador del sistema siendo el más golpeado? bloomberglinea.com/latinoame…

y cayó el cielo sobre Santiago

Es una auténtica OBRA MAESTRA 😂 Lo más irónico es que ha tenido que utilizar la IA para demostrar lo peligrosa que es la IA

Afírmense... Santiago Lluvia Granizos Temporal