zimm🅰️n retweeted
Apparently Testing Grain spectrum on $ASTS satellites facilitates testing with ASTs federal government customers.
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$spcx got Mr Beast 6 months ago, obviously for ipo hype and general publicity. That was very clever of them. Why does $asts @AbelAvellan @AST_SpaceMobile not use influencers, i dont get it. BusinessWire is ok but in todays world, we need influencers for goodness sake
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Abel, please release some PR this weekend. Please, anything at all man @AbelAvellan .
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zimm🅰️n retweeted
$ASTS at $66. A lot of you are wondering the same thing: what actually stops this fall? Here's the honest answer and no hopium.
First, what's happening. This isn't fundamental selling. It's a mechanical hedge. CNBC laid out the mechanism directly: institutions holding SpaceX equity have to hedge, but there's nothing directly comparable to short - so they "create a basket of things that simulate the price action." That basket is the liquid space names: $ASTS , $RKLB , and peers. ASTS gets sold as a component, not a company. Same playbook desks used to hedge the 2004 Google IPO.
The data backs it: S3 Partners flags ASTS as one of the sector's clearest directional shorts - a +41% short build, ~78% of it genuine directional/hedge shorting, not arbitrage. This is a crowded hedge. That's why good news (BB8-10, Rakuten JV) hasn't mattered. The price is being set by a hedge against a different company.
Because it's mechanical, "it's cheap" won't stop it.
Only things that remove or overwhelm the hedge will:
1) The hedge unwinding - starts late July, builds through fall. SpaceX trades on a tiny 4-5% float. That scarcity is what forces the basket-short workaround. Unlock schedule: float doubles late July/early August (first tranche, post-Q2 earnings), expands ~6x by late September, ~⅓ public by Halloween. As SPCX becomes directly shortable (borrow already down to 1-3%), insiders no longer need ASTS as a proxy hedge - they cover. Relief comes in waves, not one day.
2) A catalyst amplified by the crowded short. J-LEO or a defense award brings fundamental buyers who don't care about the SpaceX hedge and forces shorts to cover. Crowded short + catalyst = violent. Not guaranteed to land, may be absorbed at first, but it's the fastest path up.
3) SPCX stabilizing. Since ASTS trades as a SpaceX proxy hedge, pressure eases when $SPCX settles - even at a lower level.
So: the pressure can run until the unwind plays out - realistically now through late summer, possibly shortened by J-LEO. Anyone calling an exact bottom is guessing.
What I'm holding onto: this is a borrowed-shares hedge with an expiry schedule, not a broken thesis. The business is executing. Mechanics have a clock.
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