Kalshi is destroying Polymarket on crypto markets
Polymarket went from >90% market share in the crypto category to <10% in 7 months !
Here is what went wrong
1 - Bad Oracle
Polymarket stuck with Binance as their only oracle even after it was clear it was being manipulated by whales, which hurt liquidity a lot.
Kalshi used CF Benchmark's regulated, aggregated index from major exchanges which is much harder to manipulated
2 - Fees
Polymarket had a huge advantage over Kalshi back in January, they didn't charge fees. Now Polymarket and Kalshi both charge 3.5% peak rate.
You can even see on the chart that Kalshi started to pick up market share right after fees were introduced on Polymarket in march.
3 - Fiat vs Crypto rails
The whole PM industry is moving towards regulated Fiat rails. You can see it within Polymarket itself with the US app taking over the International app in volume this month
Kalshi was first to regulated and this chart only shows Polymarket international's volume so it also is affected by this broader trend.
@Polymarket international will probably never reclaim supremacy over this category but the comeback will happen through Polymarket US