UPDATE : Polymarket sued them back ! Only hours after Letitia James sued them, Polymarket sued NY back in federal court Their argument is pretty simple : Polymarket is a derivatives exchange -> the CFTC has authority derivatives -> NY can't regulate the same contracts as CFTC They are asking the federal court to block NY from enforcing both its gambling laws against them So we now have 2 lawsuits going in opposite directions > NY says Polymarket is an illegal sportsbook > Polymarket says NY suing them is illegal at the center of both cases is basically the same question. "are sports contracts gambling or derivaties ?" except Polymarket decided to force the question in federal court, probably because they expect them to be more amenable smart move

NY Attorney General Letitia James is suing Polymarket US If she wins it's the end for Polymarket she wants : - Polymarket blocked from operating in NY - all gains forfeited !! (as in they refund their lifetime profits) - full refund of user losses - fines up to 3× their total profits Polymarket operate under NY jurisdiction, so even if they moved they would still have to pay the fines, which would mean bankruptcy. The crux of the issue is the legal classification of Polymarket : > CTFC believes Prediction Markets are selling financial derrivates, therefor they must be regulated by them at the federal level > NY believes they are a sports gambling platform, therefore they should regulated them at the state level There is an argument to be made especially following Polymarket's pivot towards Sports but this is first and foremost a politically motivated prosecution Letitia James is a known anti-crypto Democrat that already sued KuCoin, Celsius, Gemini and Tether Polymarket has the cover of the Trump aligned CFTC for now but they will be in trouble when democrats take back power. especially considering the wash trading accusation recently brought forward by @TheFatMbappe that could be used against them They need to IPO fast before Republicans lose power if they want to exit on top

If you bet on Kalshi your are a cuck this is not a montage, this is not a fake, this is their actual ad campaign no one ever thought about going after the cuckold public but makes sense when you think about it. - KYC - regulated - custodial only they could enjoy it

The CFTC is looking to ban “mention markets” they are arguing that mention markets are inherently manipulation-prone. tbh they have a point. a few exemples : > Trump teleprompter aid caught insider trading his speech for $100k > Bryan Armstrong openly playing bingo with his mention market on a Coinbase earning call > Late night show editors trading the content of their segments and these are just the ones who got caught. but to prevent that CTFC is looking to implement additional requirement that would make it almost impossibe to publish a mention market the platform must : - list who can influence settlement - list who may receive non-public information first - explain their safeguards against insider trading - explain why the market is not readily susceptible to manipulation (Difficulty : impossible) Then once they do that they might or might not receive an approval if this passes i'm not sure any Mention Market will ever pass the bar. How are you suppose to show that it's not subject to manipulation ? All mention markets are

Kalshi finally responsed to the fraud allegations ! they directly address claims by @beniduboss and @OctopusTakopi about wash trading on their platform here are their main points : 1) cause of the $5500 buys "the fixed trade sizes are caused by one maker placing exactly $5500 to clear the minimum order size requirement of his Market Making agreement. Takers are all buying his orders which is why half of trades have the exact same size" The MM agreement point make sense, such agreements exist and MMs are often required to keep orders above a certain fixed minimum size to get rewards. that still does not explain why takers match that amount every time. If taker buys for less than $5500 or if the taker order is split among more than one resting it should be a partial fill which which would result in a different trade size. 2) Market Makers fee structure "self clearing MMs don't pay fees because we declared a Fee Holiday. Their fees are fully rebated but they can't be positive on a trade-per-trade basis" There Kalshi completely sidesteps the point. The point that @beniduboss made was that net 0 fees meant MMs paid no penalty for wash trading. Kalshi answers that MMs don't get additional payment for wash trading, which was never the accusation. 3) Prediction market manipulation "nothing we’ve seen has anything to do with Kalshi’s Predictions platform..." they have chosen to ignore the finding of @danielsapkota on circular trading in their Prediction Markets So overall there are one or two interesting points but it's not an exhaustive rebuttal. and we still don't know why their perps do 60x more volume per $ of liquidity than @HyperliquidX

this looks like money printer @quotienthq sells access to high-quality prediction market signals but they do not handle execution @zeitfinance provides tokenized vault infra, letting users invest in managed or algorithmic prediction market funds but zeit has no opinion on which trades to take so this guy did obvious thing opened zeitfi vault that trades using quotient signals quotient track record looks serious * +11.7% average return per signal * 1,372 signals catch is access you need 10,000,000 $quotient tokens to unlock full signal access so if you want ticket to make sense, you need to trade with real size @zktalent got full access and plans to trade quotient signals while scaling through investments into his fund setup is simple signal layer from quotient vault infra from zeit execution through managed fund only issue right now fund is already at max capacity so everyone is waiting for him to raise investment limit

at least HALF of Kalshi's perps volume is fake ! @OctopusTakopi found that 51% of Kalshi's perps volume shared a single trade size. this means that either : 1 ) every trader on Kalshi mysteriously decided to buy and sell ETH only by packs of *exactly* $5500 2 ) someone is running a very dumb wash trading bot that keeps buying and selling the same $5500 worth of ETH back and forth And this is not only the case for ETH, the same pattern repeats across 17 of their 20 perps pairs for $BTC the magic size is $2500 for $HYPE it's $2400 for $ZEC it's $10,600 you can see the order size distributions of @binance below for comparison. that's how natural order size distribution should look like, smooth with no random spike accounting for 59% of volume

Come on guys, It was just a small business hedging

THREAD : full review of Kalshi's volume fraud evidences Over the past few days Kalshi has been revealed to fraud their volume numbers. The evidences are scattered across multiple posts by @beniduboss, @danielsapkota and myself and keep piling up at a rapid pace To keep track of it all I will review all the current evidences and gather them in this thread Starting with the most recent finding ⏬ @beniduboss found consistent wash trading pattern in Kalshi's ETH perps. In the market's trade table, trades sized at $5,500 accounts for: - 47.20% of notional volume in one sampled window - 58.46% in sample 2 - 51.55% in sample 3 - 47.77% in sample 4 Thousands of trades at the same arbitrary dollar size of $5500 is NOT natural trading activity. and the pattern persisting over multiple samples proving it wasn't a passing anomaly. this is fake volume

yo @shayne_coplan G’mar Chatimah Tovah Subscribe to this account ASAP

Overheard 30 minutes of unhinged lore in the queue for Mimi’s frozen yogurt in Soho today. The word on the street is Shayne completely chickened out and handed an ex-dev (Mustafa) an 8-figure bag ransom to save face Obviously unverified froyo talk (haven't seen the papers, so treat it as a thought experiment), but the timeline is pure cinema: -- Mustafa is one of the oldest Polymarket employees, young, inexperienced, but had Shayne’s full trust. He spent his time vibecoding small features and teasing a potential airdrop. -- Once Polymarket started to professionalize, vibecoding wasn't enough, $Poly lost its pull, and he decided to leave. Shayne was totally cool with it. -- What Shayne didn't know was that Mustafa had secretly been flirting with TradeXYZ, advertising his PM expertise. He was hired so early that there was zero non-compete!! -- Mustafa starts soft-shilling TradeXYZ with insiders, dropping hints related to HIP-4 in Prediction Arc TG channel. -- Polymarket drops that glossy commercial featuring superstars like LeBron James. Mustafa immediately posts a direct call-out to Shayne with the Hyperliquid chart, basically saying: you’re buying fancy ads because you failed at product. -- Shayne apparently agreed. Scrambling mid-fundraise and genuinely terrified of Hyperliquid’s prediction market play, Shayne looked for a resolution, blinked, and settled. An alleged low-to-mid 8 figures in liquid cash just for a 1-year non-compete. If the rumors are true: • Well played Mustafa. "do nothing and win" • Shayne thinks he sucks at product, got shook by Hyperliquid, and folded • Congrats guys, your community airdrop just got wired in cash to a bank in Manhattan. Soho froyo queues remain undefeated.

The prediction market civil war just peaked. Both Polymarket and Kalshi are getting hit with massive leaks simultaneously. > Total silence from both teams. • Kalshi: @beniduboss went viral exposing alleged fake volume across their perps markets, sending shockwaves through the community. • Polymarket: @TheFatMbappe leaked alleged SPAC IPO plans, tighter board control, an internal leadership push against CEO Shayne Coplan, rampant marketing spend, internal toxicity, and alleged tolerance of fraud >>> Even bigger leaks promised this week!! Absolute cinema. What’s your bet on how this ends

Polymarket might be the Berachain & Kalshi the Monad of this cycle. Neither Polymarket, Kalshi, nor any existing player is architected to win this category long term! Because the entire sector sold its soul to VC vanity metrics, fake volume, and engagement farming. We traded sovereign economic hedging for regulatory arbitrage of sportbetting. (I love you @sydney_sweeney , don't hate the player, hate the game) Hear me out. What was promised as a truth machine has degenerated into an embarrassing, extractive circus. > Full betrayal of the community. > Platforms outsourced distribution to low-effort engagement cabals from the 3rd world, ICO beasts, and 2021 cycle extractor KOLs > Wash trading, unverifiable volumes. Huge shoutout to @beniduboss for exposing the game > Token promises that never materialize, rotating staff, public mud-slinging. How tf do you want to be taken seriously if you can't get your house in order? There is ZERO recovery from this level of community betrayal. Remember why Hyperliquid actually won: Integrity 1. No predatory token promises. 2. No fake marketing tribes. 3. No investors expecting extractions >> Just the builders and the community. >> Just transparent points, relentless engineering, sovereign infra, and pure alignment with users. HIP-4 won't win this either, btw. Just because the market structure is not designed for long-tail markets and you need them - but this is a different conversation. There is a massive vacuum waiting for someone to build a platform with Unapologetic alignment with users over predatory cap tables. The team that brings those values back is going to run away with the entire market.