Trump will have to lift the blockade soon he has to get oil flowing, even if it's just for a while - new 25bps Fed rate hike likely - 10y bond yields at 5.1% - Trump fast tracking Stablecoin adoption to artificially inflate bond demand all signs point to the Trump administration scrambling to contain inflation with midterms approaching he absolutely needs to get that problem under control before November if he wants to avoid a complete Democrat sweep here is what i think his plan look like : > make some deal with Iran (you can always change your mind after) > lift the blockade > get Iran to open Hormuz even partially > meanwhile push stablecoin adoption offshore Oils flow, inflation diminishes, demand for bonds increase = the fed can cut rate and the economy rebounds The hard part is that Iran doesn't trust him so even if lifts the blockade they might not open Hormuz but he will have to try anyway I think blockade lifted by October is +ev

Huge regulatory win for DeFi the @CFTC just issues 2 super bullish rullings for onchain finance 1) onchain projects are now automatically compliant with record keeping requirements. Before they were forced to maintain a separate offchain copy to comply. 2) DeFi platform can now always invest customer funds in tokenized versions of assets that are already permitted. Before, it was on a case by case basis. imo the biggest winners are @RobinhoodCrypto with their new L2 and @HyperliquidX since they have the strongest stocks ecosystem It's really too bad that Polymarket decided to turn away from crypto just before this wave of bullish regulation @shayne_coplan we need to put the focus back on polymarket(.)com

If you bet on Kalshi your are a cuck this is not a montage, this is not a fake, this is their actual ad campaign no one ever thought about going after the cuckold public but makes sense when you think about it. - KYC - regulated - custodial only they could enjoy it

Polymarket international is dying it's volume crashed by 73% since June ! since it's launch all polymarket's focus has been on the US to the detriment of the OG crypto platform - 10x the usual liquidity incentives showered at the US app - massive advertisement campaing aimed at US public - pivot to sports instead of politics/culture - constant promotional events showering users with cash bonuses yet all this favoritism couldn't make Polymarket US volume blow up, it has been stagnant since June. All it did was transform the OG polymarket app into a ghost town imagine what could have been done on polymarket international with all this money - $Poly airdrop - new resolution system to replace UMA - permissionless markets - fix the fck CLOB ! This pivot to Polymarket US and away from crypto will one day be recognized as polymarket's greatest strategic mistake they threw away all they had built in crypto to chase regulated status in the US, just in time for the Democrats to take back power and ban their business

Kalshi finally responsed to the fraud allegations ! they directly address claims by @beniduboss and @OctopusTakopi about wash trading on their platform here are their main points : 1) cause of the $5500 buys "the fixed trade sizes are caused by one maker placing exactly $5500 to clear the minimum order size requirement of his Market Making agreement. Takers are all buying his orders which is why half of trades have the exact same size" The MM agreement point make sense, such agreements exist and MMs are often required to keep orders above a certain fixed minimum size to get rewards. that still does not explain why takers match that amount every time. If taker buys for less than $5500 or if the taker order is split among more than one resting it should be a partial fill which which would result in a different trade size. 2) Market Makers fee structure "self clearing MMs don't pay fees because we declared a Fee Holiday. Their fees are fully rebated but they can't be positive on a trade-per-trade basis" There Kalshi completely sidesteps the point. The point that @beniduboss made was that net 0 fees meant MMs paid no penalty for wash trading. Kalshi answers that MMs don't get additional payment for wash trading, which was never the accusation. 3) Prediction market manipulation "nothing we’ve seen has anything to do with Kalshi’s Predictions platform..." they have chosen to ignore the finding of @danielsapkota on circular trading in their Prediction Markets So overall there are one or two interesting points but it's not an exhaustive rebuttal. and we still don't know why their perps do 60x more volume per $ of liquidity than @HyperliquidX

Make your bets !

this looks like money printer @quotienthq sells access to high-quality prediction market signals but they do not handle execution @zeitfinance provides tokenized vault infra, letting users invest in managed or algorithmic prediction market funds but zeit has no opinion on which trades to take so this guy did obvious thing opened zeitfi vault that trades using quotient signals quotient track record looks serious * +11.7% average return per signal * 1,372 signals catch is access you need 10,000,000 $quotient tokens to unlock full signal access so if you want ticket to make sense, you need to trade with real size @zktalent got full access and plans to trade quotient signals while scaling through investments into his fund setup is simple signal layer from quotient vault infra from zeit execution through managed fund only issue right now fund is already at max capacity so everyone is waiting for him to raise investment limit

at least HALF of Kalshi's perps volume is fake ! @OctopusTakopi found that 51% of Kalshi's perps volume shared a single trade size. this means that either : 1 ) every trader on Kalshi mysteriously decided to buy and sell ETH only by packs of *exactly* $5500 2 ) someone is running a very dumb wash trading bot that keeps buying and selling the same $5500 worth of ETH back and forth And this is not only the case for ETH, the same pattern repeats across 17 of their 20 perps pairs for $BTC the magic size is $2500 for $HYPE it's $2400 for $ZEC it's $10,600 you can see the order size distributions of @binance below for comparison. that's how natural order size distribution should look like, smooth with no random spike accounting for 59% of volume

WSJ reveals how Polymarket let credit card fraud rings operate on Polymarket US to boost their numbers this took place when Polymarket started opening it's US app to the public in February > Fraudsters discover you can launder stolen credit card money by sending it to Polymarket US and withdrawing on another card > Launder at least $10M through Polymarket US using thousands of stolen debit cards > At one peak payment processors were flagging 80%+ of deposits to Polymarket US as fraudulent > compliance teams notice and escalates the issue to Shayne > his response : "ignore, keep growing and pay the fine later" The team even removed safeguards requiring withdrawals to go back to the same payment source, making it easy for the fraudsters the Chief Compliance Officer resigned in protest after submitting a report on the fraud issues that went unheard The US CEO was fired and the heads of US regulation + AML also left. most of Polymarket US early TVL was likely a result of those fraud rings That's why I only trust polymarket(.)com and @HyperliquidX If it's not on chain, you can't trust it

I always thought @mansourtarek_ reminded me of someone

Overheard 30 minutes of unhinged lore in the queue for Mimi’s frozen yogurt in Soho today. The word on the street is Shayne completely chickened out and handed an ex-dev (Mustafa) an 8-figure bag ransom to save face Obviously unverified froyo talk (haven't seen the papers, so treat it as a thought experiment), but the timeline is pure cinema: -- Mustafa is one of the oldest Polymarket employees, young, inexperienced, but had Shayne’s full trust. He spent his time vibecoding small features and teasing a potential airdrop. -- Once Polymarket started to professionalize, vibecoding wasn't enough, $Poly lost its pull, and he decided to leave. Shayne was totally cool with it. -- What Shayne didn't know was that Mustafa had secretly been flirting with TradeXYZ, advertising his PM expertise. He was hired so early that there was zero non-compete!! -- Mustafa starts soft-shilling TradeXYZ with insiders, dropping hints related to HIP-4 in Prediction Arc TG channel. -- Polymarket drops that glossy commercial featuring superstars like LeBron James. Mustafa immediately posts a direct call-out to Shayne with the Hyperliquid chart, basically saying: you’re buying fancy ads because you failed at product. -- Shayne apparently agreed. Scrambling mid-fundraise and genuinely terrified of Hyperliquid’s prediction market play, Shayne looked for a resolution, blinked, and settled. An alleged low-to-mid 8 figures in liquid cash just for a 1-year non-compete. If the rumors are true: • Well played Mustafa. "do nothing and win" • Shayne thinks he sucks at product, got shook by Hyperliquid, and folded • Congrats guys, your community airdrop just got wired in cash to a bank in Manhattan. Soho froyo queues remain undefeated.

THREAD : full review of Kalshi's volume fraud evidences Over the past few days Kalshi has been revealed to fraud their volume numbers. The evidences are scattered across multiple posts by @beniduboss, @danielsapkota and myself and keep piling up at a rapid pace To keep track of it all I will review all the current evidences and gather them in this thread Starting with the most recent finding ⏬ @beniduboss found consistent wash trading pattern in Kalshi's ETH perps. In the market's trade table, trades sized at $5,500 accounts for: - 47.20% of notional volume in one sampled window - 58.46% in sample 2 - 51.55% in sample 3 - 47.77% in sample 4 Thousands of trades at the same arbitrary dollar size of $5500 is NOT natural trading activity. and the pattern persisting over multiple samples proving it wasn't a passing anomaly. this is fake volume

If only there was a way to know they were faking their volume !

The prediction market civil war just peaked. Both Polymarket and Kalshi are getting hit with massive leaks simultaneously. > Total silence from both teams. • Kalshi: @beniduboss went viral exposing alleged fake volume across their perps markets, sending shockwaves through the community. • Polymarket: @TheFatMbappe leaked alleged SPAC IPO plans, tighter board control, an internal leadership push against CEO Shayne Coplan, rampant marketing spend, internal toxicity, and alleged tolerance of fraud >>> Even bigger leaks promised this week!! Absolute cinema. What’s your bet on how this ends