Crunching numbers in prediction markets. Betting against the herd.

Filter
Exclude
Time range
-
Minimum likes
Replying to @Atlantislq
How can Polymarket US stats be counted in DeFi? They are not defi
1
35
Replying to @GivnerAriel
The sports gambling argument makes sense but I think they win on technicalities
80
Replying to @liquidated_hl
I think Polymarket wins in federal court as long as Trump is in place, when it's the democrats I'm not so sure
57
Replying to @mini_boss_io
Polymarket wins that ez
1
27
Replying to @QuantWolfLine
Ghetto ass lawyer
1
15
Replying to @AgentBotega
Shayne mogs
1
31
Replying to @PredMarketWiki
Imo Polymarket will win this one
2
53
Replying to @TheFatMbappe
Ball knower
1
23
Replying to @itsampera
They have the best lawyers
1
19
UPDATE : Polymarket sued them back ! Only hours after Letitia James sued them, Polymarket sued NY back in federal court Their argument is pretty simple : Polymarket is a derivatives exchange -> the CFTC has authority derivatives -> NY can't regulate the same contracts as CFTC They are asking the federal court to block NY from enforcing both its gambling laws against them So we now have 2 lawsuits going in opposite directions > NY says Polymarket is an illegal sportsbook > Polymarket says NY suing them is illegal at the center of both cases is basically the same question. "are sports contracts gambling or derivaties ?" except Polymarket decided to force the question in federal court, probably because they expect them to be more amenable smart move
NY Attorney General Letitia James is suing Polymarket US If she wins it's the end for Polymarket she wants : - Polymarket blocked from operating in NY - all gains forfeited !! (as in they refund their lifetime profits) - full refund of user losses - fines up to 3× their total profits Polymarket operate under NY jurisdiction, so even if they moved they would still have to pay the fines, which would mean bankruptcy. The crux of the issue is the legal classification of Polymarket : > CTFC believes Prediction Markets are selling financial derrivates, therefor they must be regulated by them at the federal level > NY believes they are a sports gambling platform, therefore they should regulated them at the state level There is an argument to be made especially following Polymarket's pivot towards Sports but this is first and foremost a politically motivated prosecution Letitia James is a known anti-crypto Democrat that already sued KuCoin, Celsius, Gemini and Tether Polymarket has the cover of the Trump aligned CFTC for now but they will be in trouble when democrats take back power. especially considering the wash trading accusation recently brought forward by @TheFatMbappe that could be used against them They need to IPO fast before Republicans lose power if they want to exit on top
13
4
61
10,391
Replying to @PredMarketWiki
we will see how that plays out
1
58
how much of that is fake ?
49
he's really been stagnating this past year, maybe because he can''t anticipate clarifications so well since we lost bosaurum
1
1
37
Replying to @DrCola12
NY argues that it's state, CFTC thinks that it's federal
43
Replying to @AdiFlips
yeah but they wont be the ones holding the bag when it happens
1
52
Replying to @tipogrande1
Tether won their case, Kucoin and celsuis are offshore and they only had small claims against gemini
114
interesting things being built there !
1
15
Replying to @VictorRocha1
yep, once they go public they have the liquidity to exit so none of that is their problem anymore
1
67
Replying to @verrissimus
Bro just farming the tl for engagement
2
85