UPDATE : Polymarket sued them back ! Only hours after Letitia James sued them, Polymarket sued NY back in federal court Their argument is pretty simple : Polymarket is a derivatives exchange -> the CFTC has authority derivatives -> NY can't regulate the same contracts as CFTC They are asking the federal court to block NY from enforcing both its gambling laws against them So we now have 2 lawsuits going in opposite directions > NY says Polymarket is an illegal sportsbook > Polymarket says NY suing them is illegal at the center of both cases is basically the same question. "are sports contracts gambling or derivaties ?" except Polymarket decided to force the question in federal court, probably because they expect them to be more amenable smart move

NY Attorney General Letitia James is suing Polymarket US If she wins it's the end for Polymarket she wants : - Polymarket blocked from operating in NY - all gains forfeited !! (as in they refund their lifetime profits) - full refund of user losses - fines up to 3× their total profits Polymarket operate under NY jurisdiction, so even if they moved they would still have to pay the fines, which would mean bankruptcy. The crux of the issue is the legal classification of Polymarket : > CTFC believes Prediction Markets are selling financial derrivates, therefor they must be regulated by them at the federal level > NY believes they are a sports gambling platform, therefore they should regulated them at the state level There is an argument to be made especially following Polymarket's pivot towards Sports but this is first and foremost a politically motivated prosecution Letitia James is a known anti-crypto Democrat that already sued KuCoin, Celsius, Gemini and Tether Polymarket has the cover of the Trump aligned CFTC for now but they will be in trouble when democrats take back power. especially considering the wash trading accusation recently brought forward by @TheFatMbappe that could be used against them They need to IPO fast before Republicans lose power if they want to exit on top

The CFTC is looking to ban “mention markets” they are arguing that mention markets are inherently manipulation-prone. tbh they have a point. a few exemples : > Trump teleprompter aid caught insider trading his speech for $100k > Bryan Armstrong openly playing bingo with his mention market on a Coinbase earning call > Late night show editors trading the content of their segments and these are just the ones who got caught. but to prevent that CTFC is looking to implement additional requirement that would make it almost impossibe to publish a mention market the platform must : - list who can influence settlement - list who may receive non-public information first - explain their safeguards against insider trading - explain why the market is not readily susceptible to manipulation (Difficulty : impossible) Then once they do that they might or might not receive an approval if this passes i'm not sure any Mention Market will ever pass the bar. How are you suppose to show that it's not subject to manipulation ? All mention markets are

Kalshi finally responsed to the fraud allegations ! they directly address claims by @beniduboss and @OctopusTakopi about wash trading on their platform here are their main points : 1) cause of the $5500 buys "the fixed trade sizes are caused by one maker placing exactly $5500 to clear the minimum order size requirement of his Market Making agreement. Takers are all buying his orders which is why half of trades have the exact same size" The MM agreement point make sense, such agreements exist and MMs are often required to keep orders above a certain fixed minimum size to get rewards. that still does not explain why takers match that amount every time. If taker buys for less than $5500 or if the taker order is split among more than one resting it should be a partial fill which which would result in a different trade size. 2) Market Makers fee structure "self clearing MMs don't pay fees because we declared a Fee Holiday. Their fees are fully rebated but they can't be positive on a trade-per-trade basis" There Kalshi completely sidesteps the point. The point that @beniduboss made was that net 0 fees meant MMs paid no penalty for wash trading. Kalshi answers that MMs don't get additional payment for wash trading, which was never the accusation. 3) Prediction market manipulation "nothing we’ve seen has anything to do with Kalshi’s Predictions platform..." they have chosen to ignore the finding of @danielsapkota on circular trading in their Prediction Markets So overall there are one or two interesting points but it's not an exhaustive rebuttal. and we still don't know why their perps do 60x more volume per $ of liquidity than @HyperliquidX

at least HALF of Kalshi's perps volume is fake ! @OctopusTakopi found that 51% of Kalshi's perps volume shared a single trade size. this means that either : 1 ) every trader on Kalshi mysteriously decided to buy and sell ETH only by packs of *exactly* $5500 2 ) someone is running a very dumb wash trading bot that keeps buying and selling the same $5500 worth of ETH back and forth And this is not only the case for ETH, the same pattern repeats across 17 of their 20 perps pairs for $BTC the magic size is $2500 for $HYPE it's $2400 for $ZEC it's $10,600 you can see the order size distributions of @binance below for comparison. that's how natural order size distribution should look like, smooth with no random spike accounting for 59% of volume

Come on guys, It was just a small business hedging

yo @shayne_coplan G’mar Chatimah Tovah Subscribe to this account ASAP

But why would Market Makers gain by faking volume ? outside of possible under the table agreements, there is a very obvious explanation they have equity in Kalshi Bloomberg reported that Jump Trading received equity stakes in Kalshi and Polymarket in exchange for market making. If a market maker owns platform equity, its in their basic economic interest to pump it's valuation and what's metric is Prediction Markets valuation mostly based on ? Volume So why not wash trade ? Kalshi is ok with that, they made it free for them

The fraud isn't limited to perps similar methods are used for prediction markets @danielsapkota found similar activities on the "Zohran Mamdani Democratic nominee 2028” prediction market. between September 1st and 19th, one account repeatedly sold and bought back $1 on this market exactly every 2 seconds he did it 2,130,499 times that's how you generate free $2,130,499 of notional volume for Kalshi

When faced with the allegations Kalshi's response was basically: "Why would anyone wash trade when we charge trading fees ? They would just lose money" Their latest CFTC filing gives us the answer. turns out Kalshi's in-house market makers get to trade for free For in house MMs on perps: - taker fees are down to 0.003% - makers receive a net rebate of 0.003% So you pay 0.003% on one side and receive 0.003% on the other. Net Cost if you trade against yourself : 0.003 - 0.003 = 0 wash trading is now completely free This destroy's Kalshi's first line of defense it also begs the question of why would the platform go out of their way to make wash trading free for certain MMs

Maybe this is how Kalshi achieve it's impossible Open Interest to volume ratio ? Their ETH perps markets shows $538.6M 24h volume for $3.1M in open interest. That’s approximately 174 times the notional position base in daily turnover. meaning that the full value in the orderbook changes hand 174 times a day, or once every 8mn. for comparison, @HyperliquidX perps do about 1~2x open interest in daily volume once again this points very strongly to large scale wash trading

THREAD : full review of Kalshi's volume fraud evidences Over the past few days Kalshi has been revealed to fraud their volume numbers. The evidences are scattered across multiple posts by @beniduboss, @danielsapkota and myself and keep piling up at a rapid pace To keep track of it all I will review all the current evidences and gather them in this thread Starting with the most recent finding ⏬ @beniduboss found consistent wash trading pattern in Kalshi's ETH perps. In the market's trade table, trades sized at $5,500 accounts for: - 47.20% of notional volume in one sampled window - 58.46% in sample 2 - 51.55% in sample 3 - 47.77% in sample 4 Thousands of trades at the same arbitrary dollar size of $5500 is NOT natural trading activity. and the pattern persisting over multiple samples proving it wasn't a passing anomaly. this is fake volume

we are ahead for an amazing week

We just found how kalshi is faking their volume ! turns out Kalshi in-house market markers pay ZERO (0) fees when trading against themselves takers fees : 0.003% makers rebates : +0.003% cost of wash trading : 0.003 - 0.003 = 0 Crucially this applies only to "self-clearing makers", a.k.a handpicked Kalshi partners. Most of these partners have equity deals with Kalshi, meaning they have every incentives to pump up the volume through wash trading before IPO and since it costs them noting, why not ? All the retards in my last tweet telling me "it's because of muh NFL" no, it's because Kalshi's volume is faker than a $3 bill Fraud Supercycle

Klashi has to be faking their volume their just introduced new fees on parlays yet parlay volume went UP at the same time this is extremely sus when you increase fees you expect to see volume go DOWN as price sensitive whales get cold feets Yet for Kalshi we observe the exact opposite Until August 20th: - $1.56M avg. daily parlay fees - $508M avg. daily parlay volume After August 20th (maker fee introduced): - $2.8M avg. daily parlay fees (+79%) - $1.0B avg. daily parlay volume (+97%) One possible explanation is that Kalshi in-house Market Makers are wash trading using their fee exemption If you take a look at their market maker agreement you can find the following line : "The benefits can include monetary benefits, such as discounts on fees, rebates on fees, revenue share from fees, and other monetary benefits." how hard would it be for internal market makers that pay no fees to wash trade a bunch of volume in exchange for "monetary benefits" ? It sure would be very useful for a company looking to IPO whose main value metric is volume remember that next time you see a chart showing Kalshi doing 10x more "volume" than @Polymarket One is verifiable onchain and the other is not.

I have learned a ton how companies work watching your panels big bro. always learning

The coup against @shayne_coplan is definitly on Polymarket just hired another Blockchain Capital owned guy this time an ex-CEO That comes after: - Warren Jenson -> CFO - Trave VandeZande -> COO - Collin McKinney Hill -> VP Ops - Blockchain Capital partners -> board seats basically all important functions have been taken out of Shayne's hands already. Now they get this ex-CEO to work “closely with him on product” (in practice take over his responsibility) while he stays as a figurehead Shayne remains officially as CEO but he's really getting boxed in Blockchain Capital owns at least +15% of Polymarket (more than Shayne) + big part of Coinbase (Zora's parent company) so in their view it's like giving Jacob Horne an horizontal promotion to another department

Yo who is that handsome guy at #3 ?

This would be very bearish for $Poly

Robinhood L2 is the only eco i'm bullish on right now the competition isn't looking great @Solana is never coming back - 100% extractions and everyone knows it - Good memes but non +EV financial product. - huge user churn because of endless scams They wont get a new wave of fresh users like in 2024, and even if they did, they would churn through it in weeks of extracting. @Base is never taking off. - Too corporate, - spiritually LinkedIn - Awful at culture (remember when they pushed content coins?). I don't see them ever catching any momentum. They missed they window and are just out if touch Meanwhile Robinhood seems to have a healthy balance of culture and financials. Dynamic tokenized stock eco, for serious assets with real financial value ($3.6B volume across 215k wallets in the first 2 months) Good memecoin launch pad with active community (@ponsdotfamily is #2 launchpad by 30 day fees, even though they take way less fees than pumpfun) And we already see some interesting experiments combining the two. like the token-stock pairing mechanics, giving us gems like $JEET (memecoin paired to the indian stock exchange) not bad for a chain launched 2 months ago now if only the chain had a token

spying on the competition ?

10/10 hit

HIP-4 is blowing up since they released permisionless markets +184% daily volume +2423% unique markets All in only 2 weeks since the permisionless markets update. @HyperliquidX picked the hard way but ultimately it was the right way When they launched in June, HIP-4 was incomplete - no good UI - no liquidity incentives - very few markets This resulted in them "missing" on the World Cup, while Polymarket made billions in volume off it. But they had a vision and they kept to it now HIP-4 looks very different : - Permisionless market creation mechanism with deployers competing against each other - multiple competing good UIs (@tradexyz, @Outcomexyz) - native liquidity rewards + deployers boosting liquidity of their markets And in the end it doesn't matter much than Polymarket or Kalshi made more volume than them on the world cup They build a solid infra, battle tested it, and now the growth phase begins fade at your own risk

This DOESN'T mean we are getting $Poly Stop being financial cattle. that's just a token warrant, doesn't mean there actually will be a token. If you never purchased a financial asset outside of Uniswap let me explain how that works : Actual investors (not retail exit liquidity) enjoy certain contractual protections. One of these protection is called the "token warrant". It basically says that if the company you invested into ever launches a token, you are entitled to a share of these tokens. It makes sense because token can be seen as competing with the equity you bought, so if there is *any chance* that the company ever launches a token, it will usually be included. It does not mean there is : - a token - a release date for a token - a concrete plan for a token - any real intention to one day create a token All it means is that the investors considered that there was a risk of @polymarket one day launching a token when they bough in, and they included a protection for it. i swear financial literacy is so low in the PM space. That's why you all keep getting dumped on

Solana's predcition market @world_xyz completely failed their launch ! their servers broke on the first day that's what happens when you are all Marketing and no Tech. They literally copy pasted the viral marketing playbook: > tease with an empty website and cryptic X posts for 2.5 YEARS ! > give every KOL referral links to shill > Give cash payout to users that link their X account (strangely only big accounts seem to be getting paid) > brag about your 1 million user waitlist ... then when it's time to actually launch the product > crash on the first day > users locked out of funds. > "Guys we didn't know we would get so much traffic !🤡" (what was the waitlist for???) Can we go back to the days of building good tech and THEN marketing the product ? This sadly reminds me of another company, that we know very well, that also went all in on marketing instead of fixing their tech. Apparently the site is back online (for now) but the "stimy" (cash bonuses) distribution has not resumed. Hope they turn it around but that's a bad first impression

The future for onchain Prediction Markets may be on RobinHood L2 Yes, Polymarket did blaze the trail for onchain Prediction Markets. But they are moving away form it to become a centralized Sportsbook (Polymarket US) Robinhood is going in the opposite direction They started as a Centralized stocks broker and are pivoting towards decentralized onchain Prediction Markets. Robinhood may not have Hyperliquid's tech, but they have the best retail distribution Their latest effort is @MeridianPredict The project only launched in July but they have the backing of @vladtenev. On the tech side it's pretty interesting. They are trying to solve the Prediction Market liquidity problem by getting rid of the orderbook entirely. Polymarket is basically an exchange: - tokenized YES/NO shares - central limit order book to trade them like assets - counterparty is other traders Great for a limited number of markets, but add too many markets and they all become iliquid. You can see how poor liquidity is on Polymarket despite all the free money they give in LP rewards + Maker rebates Meridian replaces all of this with a RFQ (Request for Quote) model : - Trying to trade generates an RFQ - dedicated LP propose quotes - best quote is shown as the price to the user - liquidity doesn’t need to sit permanently in every single market That last point matters a lot. A CLOB scales badly to millions of obscure markets because each one needs active quoting. RFQ allows you to create tons of market without hurting liquidity, because you only have to price them when someone actually wants to trade. That's the right approach if you want to capture retail. The more markets you have the more attention and headlines you generate. Polymarket understood that but didn't build the right infra to scale in that vertical. Excited to see what Meridian will do with this new approach and what will come out of the Robinhood L2 ecosystem.

This is a money printer @QuotientHQ is an intelligence platform selling access to high quality prediction market signals, but they do not handle execution @ZEITFinance tokenized vault infra lets user invest in managed or algorithmic Prediction Markets funds, but has no opinion on which trade to make This guy did the obvious and just opened a ZEITfi vault trading off Quotient's signals Quotient track record is solid : - +11.7% average return per signals - 1372 signals But you need $10,000,000 $QUOTIENT tokens to get full access to the signals. So if you want to make it worth the ticket you gotta trade with some size. @zktalent got full access and plans to trade off Quotient signals while sizing up though investments in his fund. This will 100% print only problem is that the fund is already at max capacity right now so we're waiting for him to raise the investment limit

Donald Trumps Jr works for both Polymarket AND Kalshi at the same time he's playing on both teams > August 2025 : Joins Kalshi as strategic advisor > June 2025 : Joins Polymarket as strategic advisor this + his fund "1789" capital just invested $1B in Polymarket and he personnaly holds a ~$600k equity grant in Kalshi If you know anything about politics, this basically grants complete immunity against Prediction Markets regulation at the federal level. It is extremely important now because both Polymarket and Kalshi now make +90% of their revenue through sports. Because of this pivot they are extremely vulnerable to being classified and regulated as Sports Betting venues. Right now the excuse is : "We are not a Sportsbook, we are a financial marketplace selling event contract, it's totally different" But you can see how quickly this could be brushed aside with an unfavorable administration

He/Him + Bluesky = betamale

Robinhood is now making more money from Prediction Markets than from Stocks Q2 Prediction Markets revenue : $156M Q2 Stocks revenue : $126M Most of us know Robinhood from the Gamestop short squeeze era and we still associate it with retail stock trading This is an outdated image. @RobinhoodApp has largely pivoted to Crypto, Perps and Prediction Markets over these last few years as their financials show. And the same trend will repeat for Robinhood chain, the L2 they just launched 2 months ago. It's approaching $1B TVL after 2 months of existence, mostly in stablecoins and tokenized stocks but this is just phase one. Ultimately the goal is to create an onchain "universal exchange" like Hyperliquid, integrating Prediction Markets, stocks and crypto. @vladtenev Polymarket is in a downtrend and HIP-4 is yet to take off, now is the time.

No, it was him. Not hacked

Yeah, he pinged me as well. Idk what he means

Told you so ! @polymarket account just dropped the Polymarket(.)com link to replace it with Polymarket(.)us The message could not be clearer

Polymarket US refunded all losses (+extra) after a CLOB outage I wish Polymarket(.)com would do the same Polymarket US suffered a ~5h CLOB outage on September 5th from 1:45 to 6:44 p.m. (ET), right during a live College Football event They response from Polymarket US : - They refunded all losses from markets impacted - Winners still kept their gains - Extra cash was sent to all affected accounts as an apology This is way different than what we are used to on the international exchange Polymarket(.)com suffered outages and partial breakage in all but 3 days of the past two weeks and to my knowledge there hasn't been any refund of any kind, and certainly no "extra cash" We know the CLOB is being rewritten in Rust by @devjoshstevens but in the meantime it would be cool to take some inspiration on the US branch It would make the wait a lot easier

Narratives are the next 1000x asset class. Every big player is moving towards narrative investing - @wintermute_t : narrative index baskets - @Bitwise -> thematic model portfolios - @Coinbase -> AI10, Defense10, China10 indices - @ZEITFinance -> prediction market Worldviews The idea is simple You pick the thesis. The product handles the execution That's already how most people trade anyway. They have an idea of how the world works, they pick a few assets that *they think* reflects it and pray : - "I think inflation will rise" -> "I buy gold" - "AI will get better" -> "buy $NVDA" - "War with Iran will continue" -> "buy oil" Except they all suck at execution ( asset selection, weighting, diversification and rebalancing etc. ) So even when their thesis is right they get subpar returns. The next trend in finance is trading narratives directly, backed by an automatically managed portfolio of assets that reflect this narrative. Right now these narrative indices are siloed. Wintermutes and Bitwise do Crypto assets, ZEIT does Prediction Markets, Coinbaise does Stocks. But narrative baskets of the future will cross and match all types of assets. For example, imagine you have the following thesis : "The war in Iran will keep escalating" A good system could back it with the underlying portfolio : -> Long Brent crude oil -> Long fertilizers -> Buy Defense company stocks -> hedge with "Strait of Hormuz reopens" and "US x Iran ceasefire" Add 20 other similar assets + automatic re-balancing and this point you are trading the pure narrative, unbothered by external fluctuation in one asset or another. The first company to integrate all that properly will win the next phase of DeFi

It's called viral marketing!

Why is trading disabled again ?? @Polymarket can we have 2 days without an outage ? and there is no announcement either, I had no idea if it was just my account until i opened X

It doesn't mean Hyperliquid HIP-4 will ever replace Polymarket they have different strength HIP-4 may one day win on volume but @polymarket will always have supperior market diversity. HIP-4's system is optimized to churn out high volume finance related markets : - strict template, with only a few parameters to change - concrete data feed for fast resolution (no UMA debate) - open and competitive market creation It make sense because since deployers have to lock ~$40M to get 100 market slots, they gotta make each one count But this means there is no incentive to create fun markets -"Will Jesus come back" -"Lindsay Clancy convinced" -"Who will Trump insult on September" those are market you will never ever see on @HyperliquidX the "Trump insult" event has 37 different outcomes, it would take 1/3 of a deployer's slot alone and some of the outcomes have <100$ volume Polymarket's centralized market creation has it's flaws, but it allows them to make both. Volume markets : Markets made to bring in revenue, with high volatility and fees, low resolution friction (ex : Crypto up/down markets, sports) Attention markets : those are your "will Jesus come back" markets. Low volume, unlikely to make a lot of revenue but bring a lot of new eyes to the platform that may bet elsewhere too. Hyperliquid will never have the later, it just doesn't make economic sense

ZEIT way to do it with worldviews is way cooler, though app.zeit.finance/worldview/h…

Hyperliquid will surpass Polymarket and Kalshi on prediction market volume the new update gave HIP-4 the perfect incentives for market creators to maximized volume To create market, a deployer must : - own 500k $HYPE (~$40M) - lock it for 6 months In exchange they get : - 500 market deployments per day - 100 concurrent markets limit - 50% of market fees That means every market has an opportunity cost They locked ~$40M for creating markets to HIP-4 so they are going to to maximize ROI. ROI = Volume per market Deployers will find the events with the most trading demand, recruit MMs, ensure liquidity and kill markets that don't perform. Market creation becomes a competitive market in itself. Kalshi/Polymarket on the other hand use a socialist method where a single company official decide which market get listed. Wheareas @HyperliquidX can have 100s of market creators competing in real time. I believe free market wins over socialism, that's why i'm bullish on HIP-4

There is only one that fits this description

Sure boss. It's the NFT perp mafia.

He made his money on Esports then lost it all on baseball His MLB positions lost -$5.52 million. Three markets alone caused $4.94 million of loss - Dodgers vs Braves: -$2.59 million - Diamondbacks vs Giants: -$1.41 million - Rockies vs Nationals: -$941,080 That's what happen when you start believing your own hype. You take your aggressive trading style and apply it to domains where you have no edge because you think you are untouchable. The other possibility is that he was hedging somewhere else. On one hand, there is no on chain evidence of that : - 91% of his withdrawal went back to his original funding wallet - only 9% went to scattered unknow addresses - His wallet isn't connected to any other PM account or platforms even indirectly This is overall not consistent with behavior of a syndicate/mule account On the other hand : - Baseball contrary to Esports has a very large selection of off-chain venues where he could have hedged undetected. - Very weird move for a good trader to bet 95% bankroll on 3 markets outside your area of expertise It's hard to know, maybe @DjPolyKek can tell us more directly ?

Polymarket is raising at $21B from Trump's family Bloomberg just announced a new $21B round of fundraising is being led by "1789 Capital". So I visited their website and here is what I found in the "Our Team" section : Donald Trump Jr. He's one of the 3 partners of "1789 Capital". The Trump family connections are extremely bullish for Polymarket US, that relies heavily on favorable regulation. And I'm not the only one see the connection. 4 days ago, the House Judiciary Committee opened an investigation into 1789 Capital citing "Corrupt Insider Deals" They are alleging that Polymarket benefited from regulatory favors from the Trump administration linked to earlier 1789 Capital investments. Of course at this stage nothing is proven, and the investigation was launched by Trump opponents so I wouldn't necessarily take the allegations at face value But you see how this look right ?

An anonymous trader received Obisdian Tier taker rebates (-50% fee discount) with only $242k qualifying volume Except you normally need >$10M 30 days weighted volume to get Obsidian tier. With his $242k volume he should barely qualify for gold tier (-18% discount) So what explains this preferential treatment ? Some believe it could be linked to RebatesGate, when a Polymarket employee offered up to -80% taker rebates to some privileged users for unknown reasons. It could also be an alt of legit Obsidian Tier account that got hacked and the Polymarket team was kind enough to transfer his rebate tier to the new account It could make sense since contrary to the -80% RebatesGate discounts, Obsidian Tiers's -50% is a legit part of the takers rebate program. Would be nice to hear more on that from the team

Hyperliquid's HIP-4 is rolling out permissionless markets tomorrow In theory it means that anyone will be able to create prediction markets on HIP-4 In practice here are the requirements : 1 - 500k $HYPE (~$41.M) in the proposing wallet 2 - these 500k $HYPE must be locked for 183 days 3 - the market must follow an existing template that has been pre approved by @HyperliquidX's validators Point 3 is very important because it greatly limit what markets you can create. An example of an approved market template would be: "{ticker} above {threshold} at {time}?" then the proposer would only control the parameters and be able to create a market like : "$BTC above $100,000 at 06:00 UTC on October 1?" So I wouldn't call it fully permissionless yet but it's a big step in the right direction. I expect the restriction to be progressively lifted once it's clear that the system works