building @ZEITFinance & @autonomous_af market microstructure | structured products habitual linestepper.
- Tweets 4,909
- Following 508
- Followers 19,524
- Likes 11,952
Pinned Tweet
People had a problem and thought:
‘Hey, let’s use distributed systems to solve this problem!’
Now they have 2^n problems…
4
7
112
21,366
Ivan retweeted
CT acting shocked about wash trading is hilarious. It’s been Binance’s standard operating procedure for nearly a decade.
1
12
529
I hope the hack was GDPR compliant
Wake up
See a rumor that Mistral got hacked
Assume it’s exaggerated
Friend with some… questionable dev activity texts me:
“No, this one’s serious”
Load up Tor
Check the usual sources
ohshit.exe
It’s real
Attacker shared samples of unreleased tools
Entire codebase is apparently up for sale
Good to see that French cybersecurity continues to be an avant-garde experiment in radical transparency
4
395
Ivan retweeted
This weeks featured project is @polyorderbooks
Research Polymarket with 1-second granular order book data, price and liquidity history.
Backtest AI allows you to generate and backtest strategies with full performance evaluation
Check out the video for more!
6
4
18
6,686
Excited to see Share shipping HIP-4 at warp speed.
They’ve had the best mobile app for prediction markets for a while now. the one I constantly recommend to friends worldwide.
@Scott_eth is a top-tier builder with high IQ and elite meme taste. Huge conviction in what they’re building.
Meet Share, the trading app for Hyperliquid HIP-4.
Trade across @HyperliquidX + @Polymarket, get the best price, and save up to 100× on Polymarket fees.
0% Share fees. Earn points and compete for $1M in @Outcomexyz rewards.
6
2
27
2,786
It is not the critic who counts. not the man who points out how the strong man stumbles, or where the doer of deeds could have done them better.
The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena
Look, I obviously don’t agree with Jesse on everything, and he himself may tell you that I am pretty annoying with my dissents inside CB. But to answer your question, I think it was because it was earned.
Jesse willed Base into existence from nothing. In fact, Base sort of created the category that Stripe, Robinhood etc have followed into. Robinhood and Johann are doing a great job btw, very impressive and good to see trenches eating again, but hard to say if their chain would even exist today if Base didn’t exist.
Base was created before the major Solana memecoin wave (6 months or so before WIF was created in 2023) which means Jesse fought to ship this through the post-FTX bear market.
Obviously Jesse made some mistakes last year. Building stuff is really hard, and building it inside a big public company is even harder. I wouldn’t have made all the same choices he did, and not defending those choices either.
But one thing I respect a lot about Jesse is that he still turns up and continues to put the work in every day despite all of CT treating him as a punching bag. Not sure how many other ppl I know that are willing to do that.
5
437
Ivan retweeted
if you think THIS GUY is going to airdrop $Poly you are insane
Warren Jenson is a TradFi dinosaur
> 792 years old
> TradFi background (Amazon, EA, Delata)
> never touched a crypto project
> likely never heard the word "airdrop" in his life
We are 100% cooked with this one.
This looks like a company in financial troubles bringing in a "responsible steersman" from TradFi to cut costs.
Not someone that will airdrop free $$$ to the "community" (Indonesian farmers)
This aligns very well with Polymarket's pivot towards the fiat, centralized, CFTC regulated US app but it's bearish for Polymarket(.)com
Thrilled to announce that Warren Jenson is joining Polymarket as our first CFO.
Warren was:
- CFO of @amazon, where he worked directly with Bezos and leadership to pioneer the financial framework for modern marketplaces.
- CFO of @EA
- CFO of @Delta
- President and CFO of @nielsen
A true legend. We’re grateful to have him and excited to learn from him.
15
5
77
10,685
Million dollar idea: bring back good tech to crypto!
Solana's predcition market @world_xyz completely failed their launch !
their servers broke on the first day
that's what happens when you are all Marketing and no Tech.
They literally copy pasted the viral marketing playbook:
> tease with an empty website and cryptic X posts for 2.5 YEARS !
> give every KOL referral links to shill
> Give cash payout to users that link their X account (strangely only big accounts seem to be getting paid)
> brag about your 1 million user waitlist
... then when it's time to actually launch the product
> crash on the first day
> users locked out of funds.
> "Guys we didn't know we would get so much traffic !🤡" (what was the waitlist for???)
Can we go back to the days of building good tech and THEN marketing the product ?
This sadly reminds me of another company, that we know very well, that also went all in on marketing instead of fixing their tech.
Apparently the site is back online (for now) but the "stimy" (cash bonuses) distribution has not resumed.
Hope they turn it around but that's a bad first impression
2
13
447
Ivan retweeted
The future for onchain Prediction Markets may be on RobinHood L2
Yes, Polymarket did blaze the trail for onchain Prediction Markets.
But they are moving away form it to become a centralized Sportsbook (Polymarket US)
Robinhood is going in the opposite direction
They started as a Centralized stocks broker and are pivoting towards decentralized onchain Prediction Markets.
Robinhood may not have Hyperliquid's tech, but they have the best retail distribution
Their latest effort is @MeridianPredict
The project only launched in July but they have the backing of @vladtenev.
On the tech side it's pretty interesting.
They are trying to solve the Prediction Market liquidity problem by getting rid of the orderbook entirely.
Polymarket is basically an exchange:
- tokenized YES/NO shares
- central limit order book to trade them like assets
- counterparty is other traders
Great for a limited number of markets, but add too many markets and they all become iliquid.
You can see how poor liquidity is on Polymarket despite all the free money they give in LP rewards + Maker rebates
Meridian replaces all of this with a RFQ (Request for Quote) model :
- Trying to trade generates an RFQ
- dedicated LP propose quotes
- best quote is shown as the price to the user
- liquidity doesn’t need to sit permanently in every single market
That last point matters a lot.
A CLOB scales badly to millions of obscure markets because each one needs active quoting.
RFQ allows you to create tons of market without hurting liquidity, because you only have to price them when someone actually wants to trade.
That's the right approach if you want to capture retail.
The more markets you have the more attention and headlines you generate.
Polymarket understood that but didn't build the right infra to scale in that vertical.
Excited to see what Meridian will do with this new approach and what will come out of the Robinhood L2 ecosystem.
16
11
120
13,427
Ivan retweeted
1/ Launching something new today with @QuotientHQ and the team at @ZEITFinance
Q GeoEdge is a prediction market vault combining my market selection, Quotient’s forecasting intelligence and ZEIT’s vault infrastructure.
What exactly are we up to? 🧵
15
12
40
5,012
Ivan retweeted
Hunter's Biden memecoin $LAPTOP is backed by Prediction Markets
30% of the supply will be burned based on the outcome of Hunter's predictions
here are his top bets by % supply allocated :
- 3% : Trump gets impeached
- 2.75% : Democrat wins the 2028 presidency
- 2.5% : Trump does NOT win the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize
- 1.5% : CLARITY Act becomes law by 2028
- 1.25% : $LAPTOP FDV surpasses
- 1% : Trump approval falls below 37%
This is basically a @ZEITFinance worldview. A tokenized basket of prediction markets .
Except instead of having the token's directly reflect the value of his predictions, his team will manually burn supply based on outcomes
@allquantor we need to create a Hunter Biden vault that exactly reflects his picks so we can bet directly on it
8
6
16
1,433
Rumour is that anthropic has discovered a totally new blockchain. $ETH that does not go below 10k
They plan to announce it at their IPO. They really hope a competitor doesn't spend a bunch of compute to try and scoop them and release it first......
One of the most amazing moments for me in OpenAI history was watching this happen over the past week:
1
6
771