since robinhood:0x07ebb29a38fbcb41563817e5e19f2cec619c90d2 launched, one self-funded 8 eth bundle has paid its funder 76.65 eth back (958% recovery, basically 9.58x) in 29 days. that 'bundle' is the first product of
@Moshdottrade, and it's worth tracing all the way down because every other mosh launch now runs on the same pipes
mosh sits on top of a launchpad (right now pons on robinhood chain) and does 3 things:
1. raises capital for a token's opening buy
2. executes the launch in one sequence so nobody can frontrun it
3. locks the bought supply in vaults where AI agents manage the market for the life of the token.
funders of that opening buy get the fee stream. robinhood:0x07ebb29a38fbcb41563817e5e19f2cec619c90d2 is the first token through it
1. wtf is a mosh bundle?
a bundle is a small raise that funds the initial buy of a new token
> deployer sets up the raise, whitelist optional (controls who funds and how much)
> funders put in eth
> part of the raise buys the bonding curve at launch
> the rest stays in the vault as agent trading cash
> funders receive creator fees pro-rata to what they put in
so a bundle is not a presale. funders never get tokens to dump. they get a claim on fees, and the tokens stay locked
2. the launch tx
purchase, graduate, add liquidity, all in sequence in one execution. no gap for a sniper to sit in
every pons launch also opens with a buy tax starting at 99% that decays to 0% over 5 seconds. that tax is not burned. it goes into the same fee pool and splits the same way as trading fees. per the team, that tax alone covered bun's full 8 eth bundle inside the first minute
3. bun's bundle, the actual numbers
> 8 eth raised from 1 backer (team self-funded, not crowdfunded)
> 4.24 eth bought the curve → 714.3m BUN at launch, ~71% of supply
> 3.76 eth stayed in the vault as trading cash
> 0% creator fee, no team allocation
> 79.9 eth earned in trading fees total, 76.7 eth already paid to backers, 3.24 eth pending
> 29 days since the first trade
current supply split, straight off the bundle page:
> 71.13% held across the swarm's 3 agents
> 8.2% in the pons locker
> ~20.67% real float
founder states only one wallet holds more than 0.5% of supply. so fdv overstates what can actually trade by roughly 5x
4. the swarm
the agents are built by
@uv (uv labs) on their own harness
> place offchain bids and asks that fire when a uniswap tick is crossed
> size, spread and skew set by volume, volatility, inventory and distance from mid
> mandate on bun: accumulate bun while quoting both sides
> strategy started in simulation, now tuned live on production data
> the llm layer only runs on markets with real volume, to keep cost down at thousands of launches per day
one example trade from the founder: bought 1.22m BUN for 2.4 eth, sold 1.26m BUN for 4.2 eth. sold more tokens than it bought and still netted 1.8 eth
range liquidity management was added after launch, both at the launch tx and ongoing. roadmap from inside the vault: otc purchases, community nft mints for inventory, perps
5. guardrails
> every agent action capped per period
> one absolute ceiling, one % of inventory ceiling
> agents cannot withdraw
founder's line: "agents can't withdraw, agents can't rug." also stated plainly: agents don't paint charts, don't wash trade, don't guarantee outcomes
6. the fee waterfall
this is the part that matters
> every pons pool trade pays a 1% base fee
> pons keeps 30% of the base fee > 0.70% left
> each mosh launch can add a creator fee, slider from 0% up to pons' 10% cap
> pons takes no cut of the creator fee
> bundle fee income = 0.70% + creator fee
> mosh takes 20%, funders take 80%
> mosh also takes a one-time 5% launch fee
so at 0% creator fee: 0.70% x 0.8 = 0.56%, funders earn $0.56 per $100 traded
breakeven for funders, measured in pons pool volume vs bundle size:
> 0% creator fee > ~179x
> 0.5% creator fee > ~104x
> 1% creator fee > ~74x
only pons pool volume counts. cex volume and other pools pay nothing into this
bun check: at 0% creator fee, 179x the 8 eth bundle is breakeven. 29 days in, the bundle's already at 958% recovery, 9.58x the raise, well past that line.
7. platform revenue
> revenue: $405k all time, up from $259.6k a week ago
> swarm aum: $51.7m, up from $19m a week ago
> swarm agents platform wide: 42, up from 27 a week ago
> total fdv launched: $73.2m up from $27m a week ago
> launchpad volume: $41.2m all time, $12.2m of that in the last 7d
that's roughly 2.7x revenue growth and 1.6x the agent count in a single week. bun is still the bundle with the longest track record, but the platform's now running well past a one-token test
8. the ALF
next piece is the agentic liquid fund. founder: "revenues flow into the mosh ALF which buys back and trades BUN and other mosh tokens"
> platform revenue from every mosh launch → ALF
> ALF buys back and trades a basket of mosh tokens, bun included
> acts like a cash-rich trader entering markets fresh
this feature is currently "under development." so this is the only route where other launches feed bun directly.
9.
$AUR, the variant
bun's dragon companion, launched through mosh but paired against tokenised gold (
$GLD) instead of eth. live numbers today:
> 4.7 GLD raised from 1 backer, 8 days since first trade
> ~50 GLD earned in fees, but 0 GLD actually paid out to backers, all of it still pending collection
> recovery shows as 1061%, but that's the accrued figure against unpaid fees, not cash backers have received
> swarm holds 29.7% of AUR supply
10. the backdrop
> pons took 92% of robinhood chain launchpad fees over 30 days ($147m of $159m, as of sep 24)
> pons v2 daily revenue peaked at ~$2m on sep 5, up from ~$10k/day early august
> 7d average since sits ~28% of that peak
so the base layer is cooling. mosh's pitch to pons is a longer fee tail per launch instead of burst and die. founder wants mosh to become pons' own standard
11. bullish
one self-funded bundle, 8 eth in, 9.58x out in 29 days, with ~79% of supply sitting in vaults that can't withdraw. the fee mechanism is public and transparent on the bundle page itself
im bullish because bun's return came from launch tax plus 0.56% of volume with a 0% creator fee, the worst setting on the slider, and it's still at 9.58x. every launch that follows sends platform revenue into an ALF that's meant to buy bun back, once it ships
what im watching is the ALF actually going live, and for aur's swarm to kick in.
robinhood:0x07ebb29a38fbcb41563817e5e19f2cec619c90d2