After the U.S. declined direct military intervention despite Saudi requests, Riyadh and Washington are priming Egypt for a larger role against Houthis in Yemen. Washington has reason to expect its $50+ billion, decades-long strategic military investment in Egypt to pay off. adiss-strategies.org/publica…

Our September 21 assessment by @AdwaDefStrategy anticipated Egypt’s emerging role against the Houthis. As Washington resisted Saudi requests for direct military intervention, we argued that Riyadh and Washington were turning to Cairo, citing over $50 billion in US military assistance and MBS’s September visit to Egypt. Latest developments reinforce that assessment. On October 17, Sisi pledged to defend Saudi Arabia “if requested” and sought parliamentary authorization. On October 18, Egypt’s National Defense Council pledged support, while Parliament deferred its decision until Monday. Cairo’s caution over direct involvement in Yemen is no coincidence. Read our analysis for the historical and strategic reasons behind Egypt’s reluctance.

In his latest remarks, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio explicitly acknowledged Ethiopia’s security threats, referring to armed groups as “separatists” and drone strikes against Addis Ababa as “terrorist attacks.” Rubio stated, “We understand the challenge you’re facing from these separatists,” adding that “no one is supportive of terrorism and the terrorist attacks that came against them.” His remarks reinforce Washington’s earlier visa restrictions on TPLF hardliners and Ambassador Massinga’s warnings against the TPLF offensive and other armed groups in the “coalition.” Significantly, Rubio recognizes Ethiopia’s security challenges while urging a “wise and measured” response to prevent a wider regional war.

Foreign defense attachés share their accounts following a visit to an ENDF Air Force base, where Ethiopian forces displayed weapons captured from TPLF, smuggled into Ethiopia from Eritrea. youtu.be/18GuTjwGByM?

Cross into Medri Bahri (Eritrea)? Ethiopians overwhelmingly expect the federal government to end the recurring security threat in Asmara and secure Ethiopia’s national interests, including Red Sea access. What critical strategic calculations should guide Ethiopia in converting its battlefield victories into lasting strategic gains? adiss-strategies.org/publica…

On October 15, the Ethiopian National Defense Forces displayed additional captured drones, munitions, and military equipment to foreign military attachés at Bishoftu Air Force Base, following an earlier briefing in Addis Ababa. The equipment was seized during recent operations in Tigray regional state and supplied by Eritrea, Sudan and Egypt according to ENDF. Analysis of the displayed equipment identified: • Turkish-made YIHA-III loitering munitions • Components of an Iranian Mohajer-6 UAV • Iranian Qaem/GB-20 precision-guided bombs, marked as manufactured in 2023 • A Chinese-made portable counter-UAS detection system from Hangzhou Star Sea Technology and others.

Ethiopia and Somaliland held defense talks in Hargeisa on October 13, 2026. Somaliland Army Commander Brig. Gen. Nimcaan Yusuf Gaaxnuug met Ethiopian Ambassador Teshome, the Consul General, and Defense Attaché to strengthen defense cooperation, security coordination and regional stability amid evolving regional developments.

On October 14, 2026, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed (@AbiyAhmedAli) held a phone conversation with U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio (@marcorubio), reaffirming their commitment to a more strategic and practical partnership. The call comes amid Eritrean aggression against Ethiopia and growing insecurity in the Red Sea. It follows Washington’s September 18 removal of Ethiopia from the ITAR proscribed-country list, renewed Pentagon engagement, and expanded AFRICOM cooperation on regional security and counterterrorism. As Ethiopia consolidates its military position in the north, expanding U.S.–Ethiopia defense cooperation coincides with growing competition over security and influence in the Horn of Africa, freedom of navigation through the Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb and reliable maritime access.

Eritrea’s record on international law and institutions over the 35 years since its separation from Ethiopia.

Ethiopian National Defense Forces presented foreign military attachés in Addis Ababa with weapons captured during operations in Tigray and reportedly supplied by Eritrea and Sudan. Major General Teshome Gemechu, ENDF’s Director of Foreign Relations and Military Cooperation, displayed the captured weapons at the Ground Forces compound and reported that drones supplied by the Eritrea and Sudan had also been recovered. The drones are scheduled to be displayed to military attachés at the Bishoftu Air Force compound on Thursday.

Sudan’s Sovereignty Council has ordered an investigation into what it calls a “painful incident” involving Sudanese gold miners near the Egyptian border. Rights groups report an airstrike on Oct 11 killed dozens (up to 72 per Emergency Lawyers) in the Jabal al-Uqaydat area — the second such strike this year after one in June. The official statement does not mention airstrikes or name any party responsible. Egypt previously described similar June operations as targeting illegal mining inside its territory. The border (including the Halayeb Triangle) remains disputed.

The 2018 Jeddah Peace Agreement and years of restraint with initiative for dialogue and failed deterrence, Ethiopia traveled a long distance to avoid another war with Eritrea. The casus belli is clear - Eritrean armed forces crossed into Ethiopian sovereign territory and used force. The strategic objective should also be clear. adiss-strategies.org/publica…

United Nations Secretary-General warns against the risks of escalation and concern over the aggression of Eritrean forces in Ethiopia.

Ethiopia has officially notified the United Nations via a letter that it has been invaded by Eritrea and has no alternative left except to defend itself.