Independent research on markets, capital and organizational behavior.

Thank you so much for having me on the show Charles.
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Knowing less does seem an odd measure of progress.
JUST IN: Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang declares children won't need to learn basic math skills in the AI era.
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EQT is taking Intertek private with a value of £9.3–9.5 billion equity Apparently the boring parts of industrial power are becoming rather expensive. A deal this big usually needs patient co-investors who can sit in a “boring” cash-compounding business for a long time aka ADIA, QIA and Mubadala. This ranks as one of Britain’s largest take-privates.
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Funny how many nuclear supply chains eventually lead you back to Russia. Even the sulfuric acid.
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Amanda Goodall retweeted
Bravo, Italia! Perhaps, Germany and Austria can finally apply some common sense and reconsider the use of nuclear energy too. It will be a game changer for their suffocating economies.
Oggi il Parlamento ha approvato in via definitiva la legge sul nucleare. Dopo quasi quarant'anni, l'Italia torna ad avere un quadro di regole per produrre energia nucleare. Una scelta coraggiosa e di buon senso. Oggi importiamo elettricità prodotta dalle centrali nucleari di nazioni vicine, ma non possiamo produrla noi. Questa legge serve a cambiare le cose. Cosa significa per famiglie e imprese: • Più sicurezza energetica: meno dipendenza dall'estero e meno esposizione alle crisi internazionali che abbiamo pagato in bolletta. • Energia stabile e a basse emissioni, che lavora insieme a tutte le altre, a partire dalle rinnovabili. • Una risposta concreta alla domanda di elettricità che crescerà con data center e intelligenza artificiale. Parliamo di tecnologie di nuova generazione, non delle vecchie centrali. Ora il Governo scriverà le norme attuative su sicurezza, autorizzazioni, gestione dei rifiuti e rapporto con i territori. Era un impegno preso con gli italiani. Un altro impegno che abbiamo mantenuto 🇮🇹
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Texas stopped issuing data center permits on Monday. MGX bought into a Texas data center platform in July. Someone ought to check in with Abu Dhabi.
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It would be rather odd to look at the Saudi 123 agreement, Korea’s investment package, the Westinghouse/KHNP settlement and Saudi procurement as entirely separate things. Technology, capital, construction capability and market access are all being negotiated at once. Saudi happens to sit rather neatly in the middle of it. And, of course…. Saudi hasn’t publicly awarded the reactors yet. Which may be the most interesting part. 👀
The plans for having the Koreans build eight large reactors in the US is being held up due to the plan to build two of their domestic APR-1400s, in addition to six US-designed AP1000 reactors. Article link in reply. Heaven forbid letting the best nuclear plant builder (outside China) build their domestic reactors that they have the most experience with! Are people afraid that the US AP1000 will look bad in the likely event that the APR-1400s turn out to be less expensive (per kW-hr) than the AP1000s? This may be more about the battle between Westinghouse and KHNP concerning intellectual property. Would Westinghouse's intellectual property settlement with KHNP allow construction of APR-1400s in the US. One wouldn't think so.
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Italy returns to nuclear after 40 years, just as its relationship with the UAE is getting considerably more interesting. I’m sure that’s worth keeping an eye on.
🇮🇹 Italy Approves Return To #Nuclear Power After 40 Years. #NuclearPower #NuclearEnergy Vote establishes legal framework for reactors and marks ‘historic step’ 👉FULL STORY: nucnet.org/news/italy-approv…
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The $ORCL delay is, I'm afraid, a permitting story. Water rights, a gas pipeline, and a state writing its data center rules in real time. All public for weeks- @RegardingDC has had the timeline the whole way.
Oracle is preparing for the possibility of delays outside its control. Nothing more. Last week, Democratic gubernatorial nominee Deb Haaland said that she would immediately pause new large-scale data center proposals while lawmakers write statewide rules for the industry. Polymarket has her at a 95% chance of winning office. Project Jupiter was allowed to drill a new well before a formal public hearing, using an emergency exception. This bypassed the formal public hearing process, which community members were upset about. The New Mexico Supreme Court temporarily halted proceedings tied to the project’s emergency water well after legal challenges. The court later rejected those challenges and allowed the permitting process to resume at the beginning of September. Last week, Doña Ana County created a Community Monitoring Committee specifically for Project Jupiter. The county resolution cites continued concerns from residents over water, air, noise, pollution, and other environmental impacts, and calls for independent public information forums around the project, putting the project under a microscope. At Tuesday’s county meeting (9/22), the Mesilla Valley Economic Development Alliance presented the scale of Project Jupiter’s expected impact: 750 announced jobs, $50 billion in Phase 1 investment, and more than 2 million square feet of facilities, trying to remind the county how beneficial the project is for them. $ORCL is moving forward with Project Jupiter while the project is simultaneously going through permitting scrutiny, local monitoring, and a broader statewide debate over how New Mexico should regulate large data centers. I, too, would want to defer debt for things outside of my control. We have this whole timeline at regardingdatacenters.com.
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Eras change. Doesn’t mean it’s all downhill from here.
As a former member of the UAE's Financial Advisory Council (2008-14), here's my take: Thanks to Trump's war of choice on Iran, Dubai's glory days are a thing of the past.
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Market. Really? We’re selling $MPC and $VLO because the proposed solution to a diesel shortage is a policy that could make refiners run less. Fascinating.
Here... ban diesel exports and see what happens: 👇👇👇
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I went down a different rabbit hole after Blue Owl went from $94bn to $319bn in under five years. It did not invent anything to get there. It hired out of Blackstone, Goldman Sachs and BlackRock... the institutions private credit is taking business from are staffing the firm taking it. Its Abu Dhabi partner, Lunate, sits in the ADQ orbit... Lunate's senior ranks came up through that same Gulf pool. IREN is run by Macquarie and Palisade infrastructure men, its CFO did 22 years at Macquarie and left as Co-Treasurer. Nobody in this chain is new. I'll leave the pricing to people who do that for a living. QIA anchored a Blue Owl digital-infra vehicle last September; eleven months later Blue Owl lent $2.4bn against Nvidia chips at 9%, no Microsoft contract, no investment-grade offtake. These are not naive people. So the thing that changed here isn't the judgment. It's the money. Everyone is asking whether the chips hold their value. Nobody is asking whose money is willing to wait and find out. I'm writing it up. It is not a conspiracy... I find those rather boring, don't you?
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$LEU is showing evidence that transition is underway. The right roles are all being added as Centrus moves toward commercial-scale enrichment.
EIGHT DAYS, TWO MICROREACTOR DEVELOPERS, ONE HALEU SUPPLIER Centrus and Antares signed a definitive multi-year HALEU contract with prepayments, deliveries before decade's end. Centrus says its AC100 is the only deployment-ready tech capable of unobligated enrichment. $LEU
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🎯 Wendy's Management has been coming out of the organization for months, and operations exits accelerated sharply this summer. 30% of $WEN's float is short... and I don't think Wendy's restructuring story is anywhere near finished.
One of Wendy’s $WEN largest franchisees owning 314 locations has filed for bankruptcy. Meritage Hospitality Group, which owns Wendy’s locations in 15 states, filed for Chapter 11 Bankruptcy on September 17th. The chapter 11 disclosure release today says the failure was due to profitability issues and record beef prices.
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On July 20, $PLNT Planet Fitness was $55.25. I wrote: “The YTD hires are more consistent with a slower, more capital-intensive and more digital recovery than a clean return to the prior algorithm.” Today: $41.36. Down 25.1%. The operating evidence was already there folks.
$PLNT Planet Fitness hired a Wendy's CFO and a KFC technology chief. Not a fitness executive. Not a gym operator. A fast-food finance boss and a fried-chicken systems engineer. If you only read the earnings call, that means nothing. If you read the org chart, it's the whole story.
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40.87.... and watching....
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The $RTX Collins Aerospace deal is slick. PIF’s aerospace strategy wanted capability... and ST Engineering has been building it for months leading into these 3, multi year agreements announced today to expand aircraft component repair and spare parts support. ST Engineering is deepening OEM/MRO capability across the 787, 737 MAX and A320neo. Feels like quite the industrial stack going on.
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Venezuela is shipping 4.6x more crude to the United States than Saudi Arabia. Week ending Sept 18 (EIA): 🇻🇪 583k b/d 🇸🇦 126k b/d - down 65% in a week It was a light import week overall, so take the single print with salt... We also have Aramco zeroing its European customers for October and they sold 60 million barrels through Sohar to China, Korea, India and Japan. On labor: $MPC hired 2 operators for every 1 lost. $VLO hired 8 for every 10. Marathon grew in eight of the past nine months. Valero in three. A few dozen people do not move a plant... but replacement rate does. If it means anything into late October / early November prints, Marathon should show it in utilization and capture vs Valero. Mark the date.
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If you want to catch up with the 6 hires that are changing the focus at Planet Fitness: amandagoodall.substack.com/p…
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