The 2024 Syrian scenario was unique, driven by several factors coming together.
A non-state actor reduced to a pocket, then taking the Capital - and most of the country - in 10 days doesn't happen by chance.
Recent events in Mali and now in Yemen are fundamentally different - neither is close to replicating the Syrian scenario.
I’m getting a lot of questions about whether I think the Houthis will fold quickly and collapse the way Bashar al-Assad’s regime did in Syria.
My answer is no.
The Houthis could suffer serious setbacks and territorial losses across one or multiple fronts, but there is still a long way to go before we can talk about them fully “collapsing” or “folding,” especially in their core strongholds in Sana’a and Saada.
Some people are understandably getting excited by today’s developments and drawing comparisons with what happened in Syria. I don’t think we’re looking at the same scenario.
That said, difficult days could be ahead for the Houthis, their loyalists, and their allies. It will also not be easy for the Saudi-led coalition and Yemen army.