Worked the counter-narco mission for a year straight. Pretty much my entire understanding of trafficking was wrong up to that point – too much Miami Vice as a kid I guess.
Some lessons:
People see the continued SOUTHCOM strike videos and treat it as proof the mission is failing. Why haven't they stopped, right? A boat was hit, four people were killed, and product still moves via new boats and new crews. That reading misses how these corridors actually work.
The Caribbean and eastern Pacific transit zones are large relative to the ships, aircraft, and sensors that can be kept on station. Go-fast boats exploit gaps, weather, and darkness. Under any realistic coverage, some loads will always get through. Interdictions rise with effort, but they do not produce total denial though.
The more useful frame is route economics – logistics strategy. Continuous movement is itself the claim on a corridor. Pausing creates a vacuum that rivals, local forces, or subordinate cells can exploit – they have to keep running. Loss of a load is treated as a cost of business. Loss of the route is a big structural threat to revenue and protection further down the chain. That is why groups keep sending boats even when the risk is elevated.
* In this respect, the Cartels have the same hope that Iran does – a new Administration stops the assaults, so maintain their claim for now.
There are other logistics concerns. Static buildups near consolidation points carry the same problem from the other direction. Large piles of product sitting and waiting become high-value targets once the location is known. Rapid handoff and dispersal are preferred because fixed storage invites raids, tips, or strikes. The pressure to keep cargo moving is built into the system.
The slower, but very real effect is attrition. Experienced boat drivers and coordinators are not instantly replaceable. Each loss pushes networks toward less skilled crews, higher failure rates, or higher pay for the people still willing to run. Internal premiums, replacement boats, and payments to facilitators all rise. Those costs are absorbed by moving less, raising prices downstream, or accepting thinner margins for the organizations that hold the routes.
One video is a tactical result. The campaign pressure shows up over repeated cycles as higher ongoing costs to maintain a contested corridor, slower tempos, and more fragmented shipments. It does not empty the pipeline in months, and it does not remove demand or production. It raises the price of holding the route.
On October 4, under the direction of
#SOUTHCOM, Joint Task Force Western Hemisphere executed a lethal, kinetic strike on a go-fast vessel operating along established narco-trafficking routes in the Caribbean. Confirmed intelligence revealed the vessel's active involvement in narco-trafficking. The operation killed four narco-terrorists.
@DeptofWar