Former Recon Marine turned author of hard-hitting military thrillers. Student of history, geopolitics, and war. #MilitaryThriller

The book that started it all. My first. I started it while I was still on Active Duty, writing notes between evolutions at 29 Stumps. A lot of it was inspired by Steven Pressfield's "The Profession." #thriller #actionthriller #shooterfiction
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Warfare is far more complex than just conventional/unconventional. This is something I explored with the Maelstrom Rising series, and will continue to do so in future projects.
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The pattern has emerged over the last 25 years. There is an entrenched trend of thought in our establishment that is biased toward assuming "That would never happen," because the decision makers can't get out of their own mindset. THEY wouldn't do it, so no one else would.
Three years later, I still think one of the biggest lessons from October 7th is being missed. Israel had warning, intelligence, surveillance, and military power, but too much of the system was built around the belief that Hamas was deterred and would not launch this kind of attack. In today's episode of @The_Watch_Floor, I look at how those assumptions shaped the warning, preparedness, and response before October 7th, and the lessons we should be taking seriously here at home. 🎧 Listen now: youtu.be/Bvl2x5IRfls
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(There is, of course, also a bias toward inaction, because action--particularly if it deters or prevents something without a news story--is potentially politically costly.)
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This piece speaks to something I've tried to stress a lot. Tech changes things, but people are more important. Tactics matter more than gear. We started to lose track of that over the last 20 years, but war is a human endeavor, and always will be.
THE INVISIBLE FRONT: Electronic Warfare and the Fight for the Spectrum [link below]
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"Equipment matters. But the organization behind the equipment matters more. A mediocre system supported by people continuously studying the spectrum may ultimately be more useful than sophisticated equipment operated according to procedures written three years earlier."
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This isn't entirely limited to the electronic spectrum, as @Brushbeater points out here, either. We saw it with the jihadis, who might not have been able to use actual electronic countermeasures against us, but did so by ending use of electronic comms.
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Pete Nealen retweeted
When Escalation came out in 2019, the professional analysis of war pointed to the future looking much like the Russian takeover of Crimea in 2014. Even in the Kremlin, where “hybrid warfare’s” supposed prophet, Valery Gerasimov, worked, it appeared to be the way forward.
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When Escalation came out in 2019, the professional analysis of war pointed to the future looking much like the Russian takeover of Crimea in 2014. Even in the Kremlin, where “hybrid warfare’s” supposed prophet, Valery Gerasimov, worked, it appeared to be the way forward.
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Pete Nealen retweeted
I explained to Piers Morgan and Dave Smith that the children in Gaza are raised from birth to hate and murder Jews.. This is not a problem that is solved by giving "Palestinians" a state or by sending humanitarian aid. In their own words, "There is only one solution".
Palestinian kindergarten 💔
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Pete Nealen retweeted
Worked the counter-narco mission for a year straight. Pretty much my entire understanding of trafficking was wrong up to that point – too much Miami Vice as a kid I guess. Some lessons: People see the continued SOUTHCOM strike videos and treat it as proof the mission is failing. Why haven't they stopped, right? A boat was hit, four people were killed, and product still moves via new boats and new crews. That reading misses how these corridors actually work. The Caribbean and eastern Pacific transit zones are large relative to the ships, aircraft, and sensors that can be kept on station. Go-fast boats exploit gaps, weather, and darkness. Under any realistic coverage, some loads will always get through. Interdictions rise with effort, but they do not produce total denial though. The more useful frame is route economics – logistics strategy. Continuous movement is itself the claim on a corridor. Pausing creates a vacuum that rivals, local forces, or subordinate cells can exploit – they have to keep running. Loss of a load is treated as a cost of business. Loss of the route is a big structural threat to revenue and protection further down the chain. That is why groups keep sending boats even when the risk is elevated. * In this respect, the Cartels have the same hope that Iran does – a new Administration stops the assaults, so maintain their claim for now. There are other logistics concerns. Static buildups near consolidation points carry the same problem from the other direction. Large piles of product sitting and waiting become high-value targets once the location is known. Rapid handoff and dispersal are preferred because fixed storage invites raids, tips, or strikes. The pressure to keep cargo moving is built into the system. The slower, but very real effect is attrition. Experienced boat drivers and coordinators are not instantly replaceable. Each loss pushes networks toward less skilled crews, higher failure rates, or higher pay for the people still willing to run. Internal premiums, replacement boats, and payments to facilitators all rise. Those costs are absorbed by moving less, raising prices downstream, or accepting thinner margins for the organizations that hold the routes. One video is a tactical result. The campaign pressure shows up over repeated cycles as higher ongoing costs to maintain a contested corridor, slower tempos, and more fragmented shipments. It does not empty the pipeline in months, and it does not remove demand or production. It raises the price of holding the route.
On October 4, under the direction of #SOUTHCOM, Joint Task Force Western Hemisphere executed a lethal, kinetic strike on a go-fast vessel operating along established narco-trafficking routes in the Caribbean. Confirmed intelligence revealed the vessel's active involvement in narco-trafficking. The operation killed four narco-terrorists. @DeptofWar
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Pete Nealen retweeted
15K GIVEAWAY! One Haynes F-14 Tomcat Owner's Manual and two Phoenix Pens are up for grabs. Winner takes all—no points for second place. Rules: US only. Follow me, like, comment, and share this post to enter. The contest runs through noon EST Sunday, October 11th, with the winner announced shortly after. Good luck!
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There is a reason to never negotiate with terrorists, and to hang pirates on sight.
A tanker turned around in the Strait of Hormuz this morning after it was threatened by Iranian forces over radio - UKMTO IRGC forces reportedly threatened to strike the ship, with the master complying with their demands.
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Question: would a weekly newsletter with the post of the week on americanpraetorians.com be a good idea?
As things are starting to move on the author front again, and this account is too small to get a lot of reach on X, get a free American Praetorians story in return for signing up for the newsletter, so you don't miss anything. dl.bookfunnel.com/qswxi8aqt1
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As things are starting to move on the author front again, and this account is too small to get a lot of reach on X, get a free American Praetorians story in return for signing up for the newsletter, so you don't miss anything. dl.bookfunnel.com/qswxi8aqt1
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No technological advantage stays constant. Even on our level--which is, propaganda to the contrary, far above either the Russians or the Chinese--there are always workarounds. And our adversaries have been getting better at exploiting those workarounds.
Conclusions from the evolving drone war in Ukraine:- - Russia's original $15,000-$20,000 Shahed drone flying around 200 km/h eventually met $2,000 Ukrainian interceptor drones. - Ukraine briefly achieved an almost 10:1 cost advantage in interception. - Russia has changed the equation with jet-powered Gerans costing roughly $40,000-$45,000 at the lower end. - Speeds approaching 500 km/h are pushing them beyond much of Ukraine's cheap electric interceptor layer. - Ukraine is sometimes being pushed back towards $150,000 Hellfires and other missile based air defence. - One $40,000 drone can therefore demand several times its own cost for a single interception attempt. - Ukraine will develop another cheaper counter. Russia will then try to defeat that counter. - The advantage belongs to whoever can develop, manufacture and deploy the next solution fastest. - A technological advantage only lasts six months. You have to manufacture enough of it before that window closes. Ultimately, your manufacturing base determines whether you win or lose a war.
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I agree with Kyle that the framework is a little clunky, but that's probably unavoidable when trying to quantify some of these things. The good news is that at least someone is attempting to analyze factors that we've generally ignored for decades.
This is an interesting read. A little clunky, I’m glad to hear the problem is being considered. Also one tidbit which seems particularly notable given our present situation with Iran, and is hard not to read as a “subtweet” though perhaps unintentional.
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Even early on in the GWOT, "war" was always defined as state-versus-state. The fact that warfare predates "states" as we know it was generally ignored. The reality of warfare means looking past the Peace of Westphalia.
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This document is a start. Ideology and social/identitarian tribalism often trump what conventional thinking believes are primary factors, and this framework attempts to address those.
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Pete Nealen retweeted
"Oh no, one highly nuanced thing exists so therefore everything else must be false" Hell of a take. Thanks for your contributions. Remember to wear a helmet.
Replying to @Matt_Bracken48
Fiber drones emit nothing. Thermals won't save you. I'm sorry Matt, but this guy is trying to sell you something that has large real world holes in it. Even with warnings, or the tech to jam, the drones win. We made biowar illegal because it's not a fair fight. No win situation.
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