也门的悲剧在于,南北无法共处,但也无法分开。一个旷日持久的、暴力的僵局似乎是也门的黑暗未来。
胡塞武装已控制曼德海峡,扼住了全球贸易的关键动脉。也门发生的事不再局限于也门。
I am a big fan of the idea that you cannot understand what is going on in the world today if you don't understand the history. This caused me to do a big dig yesterday into Yemeni history. And let me tell you...it is complicated beyond belief. I'm sharing a summary of my findings with you in the spirit of furthering the conversation, knowing that it is almost certainly going to be full of errors and controversies.
The Yemeni are some of the oldest inhabitants of the Arabian peninsula and traces their lineage back proudly to pre-Islamic empire. However, Yemen as a polity has spent more time divided than united.
I have chosen a map from the Cold War era when they actually were two separate countries recognized by the United Nation. But that jagged diagonal line you see splitting Yemen into a rough triangle to the west and a trapezoid to the east has been there in some form for a millenium. The reason is geography.
The western "triangle" (confusingly called North Yemen) is actually where most of the population lives by 4 to 1. That's the heavily mountainous highlands with the good arable land with water. Southern Yemen by contrast is mostly arid desert, although it benefits from containing most of Yemen's oil and the valuable ports.
Even before foreign interference, the people of the triangle and the people of the trapezoid were kind of diverging. But in colonial times, this really got locked in. The Ottoman empire got the North Yemen, which remained more tribal. The British empire got South Yemen, and it went in a more cosmopolitan direction.
When the empires fell, the schismogenesis intensified. North Yemen became the Yemen Arab Republic, supported by Saudi Arabia and the West. They were fiercely independent, feudal, Islamic and highly tribal. The South went to the Soviet sphere of influence and became the People's Democratic Republic of Yemen, the only Marxist Arab state. They actively tried to eradicate tribalism, promoted secularism and integrated women into the workforce.
But remember this: even as they started diverging in values, lifestyles and even religion...both the north and the south feel like they are the true Yemeni and sought unification on their own terms. The north looked down on the south as betraying traditional Yemeni values, while the South looked down on the north as backwards.
In 1990, the Soviet Union withdrew support from South Yemen in the midst of its own crisis and the state went bankrupt overnight. The resultant unification between the north and south was a shotgun marriage. The north marginalized the south in every way, and in 1994 a civil war broke out and Yemen never knew peace ever since.
Fast forward to the present day: Ansar Allah, often known as the Houthis in the West, control most of North Yemen and cannot be dislodged. But nor can they decently feed and care for the huge population under their control. The scale of the humanitarian disaster is staggering.
Ansar Allah are Zaydi Shia, highly rare pikachus. I don't want to get too deep into it but they are the Shia school most theologically similar to the Sunni. Not all northern Yemeni are Zaydi, and only a small minority of Zaydi are Ansar Allah, who are ideologically extremist. They are able to rally broad support however through being the most credible against foreign interference and also by backing the Palestinian cause.
In most of the south, the PLC government is nominally in charge, but they are completely dependent on Saudi Arabia for survival. It's debatable if you should describe them as a proxy or a puppet. Ansar Allah points to this to deny the PLC legitimacy, however the UN officially recognizes the PLC government as the government of all Yemen.
There are also smaller UAE-backed entities which meant there was levels to the conflict in Yemen. You had Ansar Allah against everyone else, but you also had Saudi-backed PLC tussling with UAE-backed STC. Recently the UAE withdrew from Yemen and the PLC and STC are maybe consolidated, but we'll see if it sticks.
Ansar Allah is reliant on Iran for its advanced military capabilities and acts with them with a high degree of coordination. However, they have their own localized interests and does not take orders from Tehran. It also seems like they're starting to cook up their own kit of late (with help from AI: Claude! Create an advanced missile system. Make no mistakes.)
With the taking of Mokha and Perim Island, Ansar Allah have completely cleared out PLC footprint on Yemen's West Coast and thus their control of the strategic Bab el-Mandeb bottleneck to the Red Sea is now consolidated. Furthermore, they appear to have gone transnational, coordinating with Iraqi militia to strike Saudi Arabia's east-west pipeline with drones coming from Iraqi territory.
The tragedy of Yemen is that north and south cannot live together but they also can't live apart. Ansar Allah cannot be dislodged out of their northern mountain redoubt, and now they have broken out of it, taking the entire red-sea coastline. I still don't see how they are going to take the whole south tho. It's all exposed desert sands.
A return to the Cold War divide seems superficially plausable, but ultimately this is not acceptable to the players that matter. Ansar Allah refuses partition as balkanization. As for Saudi Arabia, permanent civil war in Yemen might be preferable to legitimating Iran-aligned Ansar Allah on its border. A protracted, violent stalemate seems to be Yemen's dark future.
This is Yemen's continued tragedy, but also the rest of the world's open-ended strategic problem. Now that Ansar Allah secured the Bab el-Mandab Strait, they have placed a chokehold on a key artery of global trade. What happens in Yemen no longer stays in Yemen.