1 Rice: 2027 contracts already edging higher. Prices could spike 50-100%+ higher if India, Thailand and Vietnam simultaneously restrict exports

2 Fertilizer/nitrogen: World Bank fertilizer price index up 31% in 2026, including a 12%+ rise in Q1 alone. A further Hormuz escalation raising Gulf ammonia/urea costs, compounded with El Niño drought stress across wheat, rice, sugar and corn regions simultaneously, could hit yields and input costs on multiple staple crops in the same season

3 Wheat: Prices already up 14.5% YoY and still rallying in August on Black Sea supply news, a second shock on top of El Niño risk. Historical Australian El Niño hits: -58% (2002-03), -36% (2023-24). 2026/27 forecast: a 9 million tonnes hole in the global wheat trade which runs at about 200 million tonnes/year

4 Palm oil: Already up 9-11% year-on-year. A 6-12 month lag before drought-hit fresh fruit bunch yields show up in supply, on top of stronger biodiesel-mandate demand could push prices 25-40% above current levels into 2027

5 Natural gas & LNG: Asian LNG benchmark is already up 28% in a single month and 77% YoY. El Niño-driven Asian hydropower shortfalls could mean Asian LNG retesting 2022's $70/MMBtu crisis peak and electricity and heating costs across Asia and Europe spiraling out of control

6 Robusta coffee: Vietnam and Indonesia supply some 50% of global robusta. Likely a 15-20% Vietnam/Indonesia yield loss plus Hormuz-driven fertilizer/diesel inflation could push robusta 30-50%+ above current levels even as arabica stays soft on the Brazil glut

7 Sugar: 20-30% expected India and Thailand output drop would erase the current 870k surplus in the market many times over, flipping to a multi-million-tonne deficit

8 Fishmeal & fish oil: Output already down 40%, prices up 80% to an all-time high. Peru supplies 20% of world fishmeal. Fishmeal can be up to 65% of Asian aquaculture farmers' costs. Hormuz-driven diesel costs expected to squeeze Peru's fishing fleet economics further

9 Coal: Asian benchmark coal prices at highest in almost 2 years. China/India hydropower shortfalls plus gas prices staying elevated from Hormuz could push more power generation to coal just as flooding disrupts Australian/Indonesian mines, bringing back 2022's crisis peak above $400/tonne

10 Copper, already at all-time highs because of AI/data-center demand, a DRC concentrate export ban, and inventory squeezes. Chile's 27% share of global mine output means flood-related disruption there is a real incremental risk, layered onto an already-extreme rally