Finding alpha in markets. Trying to help people find financial freedom. Team America. My tweets are not financial advice.
Arizona, USA
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Very important read if you want to master your emotions when investing. Charlie became one of the best investors of all time by finding out what NOT to do, and avoiding errors. fs.blog/great-talks/psycholo…
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Money Mobsters #32 x.com/i/broadcasts/1PJqrNLWQ…
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Alphabet reports earnings on Oct 28. I believe this may be the last time we see $GOOG under $350, unless the model companies airball their IPOs.
The Google train has been stopped at the station for some time, but soon it will be rolling again.
GSearch + Cloud + Gemini:
>If GPT, Muse, Anthropic gain usage -> Revenue for GCP and Gemini will certainly be in the mix (which they can subsidize to suck the oxygen out of the room). Alphabet will also see appreciation from a successful IPO
>If agents don’t work out, or frontier companies cant find positive unit economics on standard queries, Google remains the last querymachine standing.
Heads I win, Tails I win.
$GOOG
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Here’s what Gemini Pro said, when I asked it to pretend to be a bear on $UBER. With a few additional followups, it quickly admitted there are massive structural flaws with the bear case:
1- Frictionless assumption
~Regulatory
~Charging & cleaning infra
~Customer Acqusition Cost
2- AV utilization on Uber vs 1P
3- The Peak Demand Problem
~Capital allocation efficiency
~Uber’s advantage of variable supply
Make sure to read both prompts, because the bear case is fairly absurd in its assumptions. For example, it assumes a federal exemption rather than a fragmented state by state rollout…
share.gemini.google/KTPmZufS…
Can an $UBER bear walk me through how many cars, by which automakers, and which rideshare platform, will be in which markets, by 2030? Walk me through the approvals, manufacturing, infra buildout and ride counts please.
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Can an $UBER bear walk me through how many cars, by which automakers, and which rideshare platform, will be in which markets, by 2030? Walk me through the approvals, manufacturing, infra buildout and ride counts please.
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The amount of passive, recurring flows into Target Date Funds, 60/40, Index Funds, and Mutual Funds towards the AI buildout is the purest test to see if money truly goes where its treated best. It seems to be a never ending stream, and one of the biggest bets our financial system has ever made.
@dhurstell
SpaceX $SPCX is reportedly looking to raise $40 Billion by selling debt to buy Nvidia $NVDA chips - Financial Times
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AustinFindsAlpha retweeted
"I have a question, here. Yes, thank you.
Why are you speaking to us when you keep underperforming the index?"
At @RobinhoodApp's summit, an audience member questioned my credentials based on ARK’s performance relative to the Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ).
I welcome the question. Investors deserve to understand both their returns and the decisions behind them.
My response focused on a distinction that often gets lost: the ARK Innovation ETF ($ARKK) and QQQ are built differently.
QQQ tracks the Nasdaq-100 Index. At ARK, we actively invest in companies we believe are driving disruptive innovation across industries, from healthcare to financial services and transportation.
That creates a different portfolio, with different exposures and risks.
Investors should compare returns against alternatives. They should also understand what they own, why they own it, and whether the strategy fits their objectives.
A different mandate doesn’t remove accountability for performance. It provides essential context for evaluating it.
I’ve shared my response in the video below.
Learn about ARKK: ark-funds.com/funds/arkk
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AustinFindsAlpha retweeted
From food delivery to grocery, retail and now catering - we’re expanding what you can get through Uber
Excited to welcome @ezCater to Uber, helping restaurants grow and @Uber_Business customers better serve their employees and clients
Uber to Acquire Business Catering Platform ezCater for $2.3 Billion on.wsj.com/4ARXTDZ
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I think there is a (basically) zero percent chance one or two companies becomes the only AV winner.
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From @theallinpod
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$UBER stock is priced already for Mobility death, so anything other than death is actually just free upside, in addition to Delivery being priced significantly cheaper than $DASH. Advertising is a free call option and Mobility will surprise over the next 3-5Y. The volume difference is being under appreciated, and adjusted ebitda will print, DURABLY.
Its basically “new technology improvement will destroy incumbent platform behemoth who is also using said technology improvement”. Aka, its ‘Google Search is dead’ all over again, with its existential narrative being far overblown. Just my 2c.
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If you compare $UBER to Blackberry or Blockbuster, you are just admitting you don’t know about dual-sided network effects, or how important they are.
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This might be the last time you can ever buy $UBER under $70
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AustinFindsAlpha retweeted
Such analyses obviously confounded by the fact that Waymo remains super focused on going broad rather than deep, but nonetheless most AV / rideshare data I find looks something like the below from Phoenix airport. You have a pretty mature market (PHX airport) growing at some rate (0-3%), rideshare is outgrowing that (4-6%) as legacy inferior products continue to cede (taxi + hotel each -20%), and in this particular case, AV is actually down to flat y/y (tbf I assume due to fleet allocation choice) $UBER $LYFT $GOOGL
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