Alt data KPI search & destroy
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How I imagine the typical $UBER strategy meeting goes.
Completely fed up and tempted to dump this shit
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Such analyses obviously confounded by the fact that Waymo remains super focused on going broad rather than deep, but nonetheless most AV / rideshare data I find looks something like the below from Phoenix airport. You have a pretty mature market (PHX airport) growing at some rate (0-3%), rideshare is outgrowing that (4-6%) as legacy inferior products continue to cede (taxi + hotel each -20%), and in this particular case, AV is actually down to flat y/y (tbf I assume due to fleet allocation choice) $UBER $LYFT $GOOGL
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It's a bit besides the point vis a vis the AV and agentic knifefight ongoing, but an earnings preview for big COO+CEO buys 2/3rds of the way thru the Q is that $UBER numbers are going to be rock solid. NYC not showing any post World Cup slowdown is particularly impressive
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Flashbacks to 2024 when I spent 2 months of research on how to monetize some of my A&D and defense positions and then after a couple calls the @TeucriumETFs team politely informed me that I was in fact way too poor to make the math work. Sad!
Today, @USTreasury and @IRSnews issued a notice on tax-motivated investment strategies that makes clear Treasury is serious about cracking down on transactions designed to dodge taxes or exploit our federal tax code. The companion Revenue Ruling also takes on prearranged §351 ETF conversions designed to avoid tax. Our message on these conversions is clear: they don’t work under existing law.
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It is remarkable that $Z could dominate the top of funnel for so long, and against so many challenges, and yet NOT transform that into profits. This craziness must be a story to be explained by someone who step away from alt data and understand PnL + a balance sheet
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$DAR trading at a double digit FCF yield for [checks notes] 2H26. Reminds me of Cad energy in 2020. The accretion is right there
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Gasped. Obviously a known hail mary strategy, but didn't realize we're saying it out loud now
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The (only?) answer to agentic for the marketplaces IMO is membership / lock in. If a marketplace can achieve sufficient scale that it can price its services to customers lower & wider than competitors, then an agent does nothing but drive more full stack use of the marketplace product. This allows said marketplace to enjoy the flywheel as it can then reinvest in pricing lower + broader. At which point, $META has just created a very expensive & fast way for a McKinsey consultant to book the Marriot that they already would have. If a marketplace can't reach that critical scale then the answer is that it 1) dies to the marketplace that does, 2) is eaten by agentic. Knifefights abound here, but I consider them all as play the leader, or not at all $BKNG $UBER $DASH $LYFT $ABNB
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Most of the diesel ban thoughtpieces rely on the assumption that Trump cares about good thru cycle energy policy. There's no real evidence for that at all, but there is an election in a month where inflation is the top issue
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Most interesting to me is the biofuels complex of $DAR and $CLMT. If the admin lets US RD get exported (unclear to me) it feels self evidently bullish. Ditto if the D6 responds to falling disty prices by cratering then it's self evidently bullish. But then you're again risking meaningful regulatory risk in a market that you only just went through a huge regulatory scare. The D6 has throughout this though traded to keep margins running, and indeed locally is doing that. So maybe it just means it's beholden to you to sell your profit
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Tankers always win from chaos so they'll find a way to win here top $STNG$DHT
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Every profile of Langone or Ballmer has a huge section on how “loyal” they were to never sell. Please. Stop. Get some help. They didn’t want to pay Cap Gains and have many ways to monetize such a position
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Found a good book idea about how economic combat in the US is a result of 2 earner HHs pricing away the marginal advantage of having 2 earners, "The Two Income Trap." I go to purchase. It's by Harvard Law Professor Elizabeth Warren. Shocked. Confused. Scared. My world is spinning
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I assume you don't become big tech CEO without the leadership to tell your underlings, you buy first, I'll come in after to juice your profit. I assume you don't become big tech CEO without the luck that when you do that you get the best entry price $UBER
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Rather than read a 50 page thinkpiece about chicken wing up & cross sell, I'm simply not going to buy the gas station operator trading at 33x FCF as we lose a war in the middle east and hike rates $CASY
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