Turkish bases are thinning Kurdistan's border woodland, satellite data show, but far less than claimed
Videos of trucks carrying timber to Turkish military bases have sparked a major controversy in Iraq's Kurdistan Region in recent days, over whether Turkey is systematically cutting the region's border forests.
The issue has gone viral across Kurdish media. Rudaw, Kurdistan24 and opposition outlets each offer a different version of events, each fitting its own agenda.
To test the claims independently, The National Context analysed 25 years of satellite imagery covering every district of the Kurdistan Region. Satellite data is the most independent way to check what is happening on the ground. Here is what the findings show:
Woodland in areas of Turkish military activity, especially Amedi district in Duhok province, is being lost at about twice the rate of comparable woodland elsewhere. The loss is modest in scale, however, and concentrated where Turkey has built networks of new roads and outposts, including cleared hilltops consistent with helicopter landing sites.
Each year's loss is small. But it recurs every year and falls on the region's highest oak woodland, so the cumulative damage is significant enough to cause concern.
The long-term record shows no collapse of the region's forests. It does show a slow decline in the border belt relative to the rest of the region. The border belt is defined here as the woodland within 25 km of Turkey in Amedi, Zakho and Mergasur - all mapped. That pattern points to loss in specific patches.
Sentinel-2 satellite imagery shows where those patches are. Between 2017/18 and 2024/25, 5.6% of Amedi's woodland showed a marked drop in greenness, the highest share of any district. Zakho followed at 4.8% and Mergasur at 3.8%. Elsewhere the share was 2.8% in Akre, 2.5% in Soran, 2.1% in Penjwen on the Iranian border, 2.0% in Duhok and 1.7% in Pshdar, also on the Iranian border.
Several indicators contradict the opposition's allegation that the cutting is systematic and commercial, feeding furniture production inside Turkey:
Commercial logging usually spreads across any forest that trucks can reach. The border belt doesn't fit that pattern. If you split its woodland into 1 km squares, nearly 90% of the loss is packed into just one in ten squares, and about four in five squares show no loss at all.
Moreover, the loss follows the newly built roads. In the Metina mountains, a main target of Turkey's 2021 operation, 29% of woodland within 250 m of a new road showed a marked drop, against about 10% further away. The losses came in 2023 and 2024, the years a switchback road and then a ridge-crest road were built.
More importantly, the scale is limited. Across the border belt, about 36 km² of roughly 1,300 km² of woodland has shown a marked drop since 2017. About 20 km² of that is more than comparable woodland lost elsewhere, and 12 km² of the extra loss is in Amedi. That is 0.34% to 0.5% of the belt's woodland a year. By comparison, woodland in the region without Turkish military activity loses about 0.2% a year, Iran's Zagros oak forests about 0.16%, and forests worldwide about 0.25% - that is gross loss.
Also for context, other war zones have suffered far heavier losses. Syria's coastal forests lost 24% of their cover between 2010 and 2020, and western Syria 19% between 2010 and 2019. More than half of Afrin's forest cover was reported lost within about three years of Turkey's takeover. On Ukraine's front lines, 5% to 16% of forest was damaged in a single season.
The figures also strongly contradict any timber trade. Assume every affected hectare were dense, mature woodland at the top of published estimates, about 76 tonnes per hectare. The extra loss would then yield at most about 20,000 tonnes of wood a year, and all of the marked drop about 35,000 tonnes. Real yields are likely far lower. Moreover, most of this woodland is scrub oak, cut back repeatedly over generations. It is firewood grade and of little use to furniture makers.
Even the theoretical maximum would be about a 0.1% of Turkey's annual industrial wood harvest. Small-scale sales, such as surplus firewood sold in Sirnak or Hakkari or the felling of individual walnut and plane trees, cannot be ruled out, but a trade on the scale alleged can.
The full analysis, with the methodology and detailed results:
thenationalcontext.com/turki…