Wild…
JUNE 2028. The S&P is down 38% from its highs. Unemployment just printed 10.2%. Private credit is unraveling. Prime mortgages are cracking. AI didn’t disappoint. It exceeded every expectation. What happened?​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ citriniresearch.com/p/2028gi…
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Longboard BTC retweeted
Probably Nothing. $STRC $SATA
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Strategy raised ~$120 million from STRC with "only" ~$250 million trading volume. That is 48% of the total volume being churned into pure BTC yield. This was across just 3 trading days. Saylor cracked the code. STRC will funnel billions into Bitcoin every week. It's over.
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Longboard BTC retweeted
$STRC Day 3 > $100 Finished with $116M in volume > $100 33% of volume = $38.2M 3-day estimate ATM @ 33% = $90.1M ~ 990 BTC estimate from $STRC in 3 days. $STRC by itself potentially eating up 73% of the natural new Bitcoin supply
$STRC Close of Day 2 Finished with $80.6M in volume > $100 33% of volume = $26.5M 2-day estimate ATM @ 33% = $51.8M BRRRRRR This is the signal.
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Day 2. $STRC has traded ~$38m of volume today above $100. Digital Credit fiat money machine go BRR I suspect this will occur for the next 5 trading days.
$STRC has traded $50m of volume today, above $100. A material % of that volume is likely converted into ATM sales. The fiat money machine has been activated. Excess return and excess risk of $STRC accrues to $MSTR via Bitcoin CAGR underwriting Year 1 of Digital Credit 🟩👆🏼
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Longboard BTC retweeted
$STRC Finished the day with $76.8M in volume and closed after hours at $100.00 33% of volume = $25.3M BTFD
During 11/4/25 - 11/13/25, $STRC traded around $100 par Roughly $1.17 Billion of $STRC shares traded hands Estimated 40.4% of that volume was at or above $100 par (~$472M) $MSTR raised $157.6M off $STRC in the period Roughly 33% of Volume at or above $100 was new sales Today's volume at/above $100 = ~$66 million at 33% of ADTV > $100, today would represent ~$21m+ day for $STRC alone. +6 trading days until January Ex Div date. Year 1 of Digital Credit
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Bitcoin's 2x/60x Rule: When Bitcoin gets twice as old (2x), its price goes up 60× 😎 - - - Today Bitcoin is 6,184 days old, or ~16.95 years old. When it gets twice as old (12,368 days, ~33.9 years), price is projected to be $6,708,168.
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Longboard BTC retweeted
If you paid for Opus 4.5 using API This costs $3.43 to build And it just took like 10mins
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I've scaled 4 products past $100k MRR everyone asks for the strategy here's what actually worked: 1. week 1: build something, anything, ship it 2. find 5-10 people, get them to try it 3. become annoying - DM, email, call 4. watch them use it (most won't) 5. ask why, fix it, ship again 6. daily check-ins, daily updates 7. solve their actual problem, not what you think it is 8. keep shipping until they beg you not to change anything 9. that's your signal - now go loud 10. content everywhere, SEO grind, paid ads 11. double down on channels that work 12. cut everything else the gap between $0 and $100k? steps 3-8 most people never leave their code editor you can't build a business without talking to humans
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Unlikely we see sub $70k in late 2026...but anything in the $70's would be amazing.
Bitcoin may or may not revisit its support levels in the near term, but if it does: the lower it goes, the less time it is likely to spend there before running up again. - - - 🚨WORST CASE... we dive into this support rainbow IF we head down. Coincidentally (or not?), the estimated marginal production cost level, electrical cost, etc. (estimated with error) also happens to live in this range, or just above it. See the TABLE in the figure for the implied support prices if we were to reach them today. With BTC currently around $92K, these represent 27-41% further correction from today. Historically, if price breaks below the 10th percentile, it would only remain below that level for an average of 36 days in any given year. For the 5th percentile (what I normally use as "support"), price would remain lower for an average of just 18 days per year. - - - 💡KEY INSIGHT: The deeper we go into the support rainbow, the lower the likelihood we continue lower, and if those lower quantiles are reached, the fewer days price is likely to spend there. *NOTE* the 1st percentile is exceedingly unlikely. All support levels built from the most powerful long-term price model in my opinion: the power law (derived here using quantile regression).
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Longboard BTC retweeted
- No leverage - No shitcoins - Deep cold storage You'll be fine.
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Longboard BTC retweeted
Everyone is getting it wrong about why $MSTR is underperforming. Strategy have taken a lot of slack this year for what has been a disappointing 12 months for Bitcoin price action. Many analysts in the space have been trying to come up with answers for why MSTR is underperforming but seemingly ignore the most important factor - sentiment and price momentum for Bitcoin itself. It's important to understand that whilst MSTR has had a bad year performance wise, the NAV floor has risen dramatically and thus share price when mNAV = 1. mNAV compression and expansion below or above 1 is stochastic and wholly dependent on the presence of speculators. When speculators think Bitcoin is going to the moon, mNAV will expand. When speculators think Bitcoin isn't going to the moon, mNAV will contract. I believe this can be shown by looking at the price action for Bitcoin and MSTR in 15 days after Trump became President. Some key numbers here... On November 5th, 2024, Bitcoin started the day at $67,811 and traded up to ~$95k on November 20, 2024. This is a ~40% increase in 15 days. On November 5th, 2024, MSTR opened at $233.34 and closed at its highest price of $473.83 on November 20, 2024. This is a ~103% increase in 15 days. We have not come close to this price momentum for Bitcoin to the upside since then. I believe for MSTR to have another massive run up it needs to be triggered by a similar move upwards in the Bitcoin price. This is further corroborated by the Bitcoin price action when denominated in Gold. On November 5th, 2024, 1 BTC = 20.75 XAU. On November 15th, 2024, 1 BTC = 34 XAU. You can see in the chart below that Bitcoin has been on a downtrend pretty much since the end of 2024 against Gold. Yes the market has changed, yes there are new players, yes the options market is significant... but ultimately the main reason for MSTR underperformance is significant weakness in the underlying itself - Bitcoin. Bitcoin is under its Inflation adjusted high of 2021. When we see sentiment return and significant price momentum for Bitcoin to the upside, MSTR will follow like clockwork. Patience.
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RT @Excellion: .@saylor built an unassailable Bitcoin fortress. It may be impossible for anyone to replicate what he has constructed. Atte…
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It’s been a while since we heard anything about the BTC strategic reserve. Or the US government possibly buying BTC. When something in the market gets very quiet, but you know it hasn’t gone away, it can be a good time to start paying attention. Here’s what I’ve started to watch for. Scott Bessent is a markets guy, a trader by nature. He knows the legislative route to purchase BTC is slow and very public, so it’s likely to get front-run, especially by other nations (I think legislation is very important for long-term reasons, and will eventually happen in some form, but this is solely about price and Bessent’s thinking). It’s not hard to imagine Bessent watching the recent BTC selloff with an opportunistic trader mindset. At some point, would it really be surprising to get a public statement along these lines? “Consistent with this administration’s stated goal of supporting US leadership in technology, the US Treasury has acquired…” Activity by the Exchange Stabilization Fund (ESF) is not disclosed in real-time; Treasury posts annual reports and monthly statements on its website. But as a practical matter, Bessent would certainly make a public statement on this long before it showed up in any disclosure. It’s been hard to forget him showing up for the opening of PubKey DC in the teeth of BTC’s current selloff.
The Treasury Secretary was at tonight's opening of PubKey DC. In this type of market, signals like this don't matter much. Eventually traders look back and realize it mattered.
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Longboard BTC retweeted
Replying to @TheRealPlanC
funding rates negative miners capitulated coinbase premium negative second biggest etf outflow ever All signs of a textbook bottom
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Longboard BTC retweeted
Everyone should read @moneyordebt's new research piece on effects of periodicity of bubbles along BTC power curve. If in fact PMI's run through end of 2026, then this will be a very high correlation.
Enough technical analysis. This is the North Star.
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Longboard BTC retweeted
Three announcements came out while Bitcoin was trading in the $80,000s 1. IBIT options raise to 1 million contracts - the same liquidity tier as major global equity benchmarks 2. Blackrock Strategic Income Opportunities Portfolio increased IBIT position by 14%. 3. JPM IBIT structured link note - The last 7 days were obvious accumulation points.
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Longboard BTC retweeted
🇺🇸 US national Bitcoin Reserve odds are soaring. Someone knows something!
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There's some serious money to be made by those who can understand this before the market does. The market is extremely inefficient at pricing the Strategy Preferreds. Bitcoin fell to $82k and the market panicked. $STRC fell to $92, $STRF to $94 and $STRD to $65. This meant that the yields for each of these products went up substantially when compared to at par, implying that the risk had also increased significantly. The problem is, this just isn't true. Saylor said himself that "If Bitcoin goes up 140 basis points a year, we can pay the dividends forever. If BTC goes up 0% a year, we have capital for the next 70 years." The risk doesn't materially change that much if Bitcoin is trading at $105k or $82k. If you're buying these products in the first place, surely you believe that Bitcoin is trending upwards long-term anyway. Herein lies the opportunity... unless you're betting on Bitcoin and Strategy collapsing, smart money will be buying these Preferreds at huge discounts when the market is capitulating. You get to benefit from a significant increase in the dividend yields and beautiful capital gains as these products inevitably trade back up to par. I will be making these trades as often as possible until the market figures it out.
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Longboard BTC retweeted
As I predicted JPMorgan's files for a New Structured Note Linked to BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF @jpmorgan Chase filed a prospectus with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on November 25, 2025, for a new financial product: Auto Callable Accelerated Barrier Notes Linked to the iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT), due December 20, 2028. This is a 3-year structured note that provides leveraged exposure to BlackRock's flagship spot Bitcoin ETF (IBIT), which currently manages about $69-70 billion in assets and is the largest BTC ETF on the market. IMO: JPMorgan entered at the bottom and made the dip.
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