Bitcoin Quantile Framework ⎮ Math Models

*Not financial advice*
It's Wednesday, so a brand new episode of Bitcoin Uncharted is live! 🔥 Today, I’m jumping into the charts with @TheRealPlanC and @1basemoney and bringing the receipts to prove exactly why trying to time Bitcoin is a losing game.
17
2
15
4,248
Bitcoin: What percent are you currently sidelined?
18% 80% to 100%
11% 50% to 80%
12% 20% to 50%
59% 0% to 20%
1,900 votes • Final results
24
5
31
19,222
4-year cycle crew and bears are on the ropes. Bitcoin is within 2,000 USD of landing the knockout blow.
25
24
483
25,734
At what Bitcoin price will you be confident that the major low is in?
33% Already Confident
25% $85,000
15% $90,000
27% $100,000+
1,482 votes • Final results
19
1
32
14,162
Bitcoin is a few thousand away from everyone that is sidelined starting to FOMO back in.
32
28
939
31,616
Bitcoin just needs to clear and confirm a breakout above the May 2026 highs.
6
1
37
6,688
I hope her shorts got liquidated.
“Lower lows coming” - Layah Heilpern, forever edition. June 25: BTC at $58K “Time to start shorting with me.” 😂
139
47
1,108
88,386
Is the 2026 Bitcoin low in?
64% Yes
36% No
3,011 votes • Final results
31
3
58
25,717
At over 90k this poll should go to 90%.
1
11
3,369
Surprised how many don't think the major low is in. Good if a decent amount are still waiting for a major lower low. More fuel.
8
32
4,933
2011🟢 2012🟢 2013🟢 2014🔴 2015🟢 2016🟢 2017🟢 2018🔴 2019🟢 2020🟢 2021🟢 2022🔴 2023🟢 2024🟢 2025🔴 2026🟢 2027🟢 2028🔴 2029🟢 2030🟢
30
26
472
53,148
Yep 🎯
2026 looked more like a 2019 mini-bear market than a 2013, 2017, 2021 style bear market.
9
1
105
19,459
Great vid by Sminston, worth a watch.
Bitcoin velocity is picking up. I explained to Joe how this effect would be expected along with the business cycle picking up, with the PMI levels acting as a potential gauge for Bitcoin velocity. 👀
3
3
43
17,948
I couldn't agree more 🎯
The four year cycle was always more likely to break in a bear. There is nothing magical about the calendar that drives price, and using it as a market compass was destined to lead you off course given enough time. Once the compass breaks, you're truly lost. Build a better one.
4
120
26,974
If you can't stomach a basic bitch 50% correction, you simply don't deserve $1,000,000 Bitcoin. I have been in Bitcoin for almost a decade, and this one was a cakewalk.
They panic-sold Bitcoin at $60K. Now they’re watching the bull market from the sidelines. Brutal.
91
76
1,558
152,100
Bitcoin: Congrats to everyone that didn't capitulate. 2027 will be a great year.
42
38
1,412
30,201
The follow-through continuation begins...
Bitcoin is about to go through its first supercycle: from $16,000 to $250,000+. The cycle began Nov 2022 at the $16,000 bear market low. The first peak was $126,000 and the mid-cycle low was $60,000. The next cycle peak will land in the second half of 2027 to the first half of 2028, and I would be surprised to see anything less than $250,000 at the supercycle top.
33
56
707
98,440
If Bitcoin was following a more traditional extended bear market it would have bottomed in Q4 at $35,000 to $40,000. Meaning the recovery will be faster and we won't have to wait as long to see a major peak.
1
26
3,479
How has no one else noticed that the 2021 mid cycle correct was -55% and this cycle's mid cycle correct was -54%.
1
29
2,902