Personal Update: I am very proud to announce I'm launching the @_checkonchain Newsletter on Substack! After 6 years studying and educating folks on the power of #Bitcoin onchain data, it's time to put my skills to the test. Our first edition is live! checkonchain.substack.com/ 🧵

I'm going to share something new I just learned about Bitcoin returns... I STRONGLY encourage you to follow @_Checkmatey_ From his last newsletter: "... around 3% of all trading days account for 100% of the bull cycle return! In other words, for a classic 3-year long bull market, just 33-days account for the full return profile. All the other days of slightly positive moves are offset by all the negative days, including the nastiest sell-off events. If you’re not invested for those 3% of days, you do not enjoy the fruits of the maximum bull market returns." This brings home what I've been saying. Buy. HODL. Done. Don't trade. Don't try to time. Smash buy if you can stomach it.

Even in a Bitcoin bull market, the odds of an up or down day are roughly 50:50. The difference is that a very small number of outsized positive days drive almost all of the cycle’s returns. Only ~3% of trading days account for 100% of the bull market gains. In our latest piece, @_Checkmatey_ breaks down what the statistics tell us about how Bitcoin bull markets actually trade. Get the Article here -> newsletter.checkonchain.com/…

API series explorer: explorer.bitview.space

Pour la 1ere fois, le $BTC sort d'un bear market sans avoir plongé sous le prix réalisé Portés par des chercheurs chevronnés tels que @_Checkmatey_, @dpuellARK ou @_nym21_, d'autres heuristiques permetttent de mieux décrire la réalité du marché Article à venir sur le sujet ✍️

Je partage beaucoup moins de métriques qu’avant. Dans les phases de rush ou quand je suis moins disponible, je me focalise sur les 3 sources auxquelles j’accorde une confiance presque aveugle : 📌 La Boussole qu'on a mis en place avec @profchaine 📌 James Check @_Checkmatey_ qui est pour moi le meilleur de son domaine 📌 Mon expérience et mon ressenti Je suis un investisseur fainéant, mon objectif n’est pas de passer ma journée à regarder des charts. C’est de savoir quoi regarder, quand ça compte, et pouvoir ensuite laisser le marché faire son chemin. C’est aussi ça pour moi l’intérêt de l’analyse on-chain.

I've seen folks adjusting goalposts, claiming the 4yr cycle still works because 3 months over 4yrs is a small delta. Missing prior tops by a quarter missed a median of 80% of the cycle upside. Missing prior lows by a quarter missed a median of +50% moves off the low. Let it go

🪦 MVRV < 1

ONE HUNDRED AND NINETEEN THOUSAND SIZZLING SNAGS ON THE BARBIE DOLLARIEDOOS PER BITCOIN.

This October 4yr cycle low is going to be quite the event it seems...

bitcoin:native just ripped past $83k, pushing through what @_Checkmatey_ has dubbed the “Bears Last Stand.” In our latest piece, James breaks down the setup and what he’s watching next → newsletter.checkonchain.com/…

Bitcoin Liquidation heatmap a few hours ago when @_Checkmatey_ was putting together today's report. RIP lads.

as we all know: bitcoin only ever moves because news, thus I'd like to personally thank @_Checkmatey_ for the pump

gg bears.

Gold, crashing since 2009. Credit: @_Checkmatey_

Higher. newsletter.checkonchain.com/…

this weekend feels like a polite pause for bears to change positioning i realize bitcoin:native is at range highs / monster resistance level but think we're getting a push higher this week now we wait

please welcome the official @_bitview_ account 👋 @Darkfost_Coc has been following the project for a while now. we’ve had many great conversations and friendly debates around datasets, charts and ideas, and he’s already shared quite a few bitview charts on his own account he very kindly reached out wanting to help give the project more visibility, and proposed taking care of a dedicated bitview account with charts, updates and insights very thankful he stepped in and excited to see where this goes !

"I remain strongly of the view that we’re in a bear-to-bull transition and I have come across very few tools in my suite to suggest otherwise." - James Check (My favorite bitcoin analyst)