Riffs on Stocks/Markets/(Geo)Politics. Unconstrained. Unfiltered. NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE. DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH. 🇺🇸
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@realDonaldTrump will open the Hormuz when the global regime change operation is over
No sooner
Oil extends its rise as it becomes clear Hormuz won't reopen anytime soon.
Iran says it will only reopen Hormuz when the US accepts its demands... effectively a US surrender.
The US rejected those demands... so we are back to square one.
US financial/fiscal conditions will have to deteriorate to such a degree that the US will be forced to surrender... we aren't there yet.
But surging UST yields can change that pretty fast.
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Having listened to and read numerous earnings calls so far in the 3Q26 my gut says we’re seeing peak growth
Lots of very ebullient CEOs
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That sucking sound you hear is significantly higher y/y oil, interest rates and $USD bleeding out the non-AI buildout adjacent economy
Deficits and AI bubble or bust!
Any time either the USD or oil get “too high”, foreigners will sell USTs aggressively to defend their currencies or finance oil-driven trade deficits.
This isn’t a choice or a speculation, it’s a Balance of Payments identity.
via BA
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Why doesn’t @TruthGundlach educate @CNBC viewers what Fiscal Dominance is?
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The Fed is trying to force you into overvalued bubblicious equity markets or fiat debasing longer-duration Treasury bonds while Wall Street sells the PMs that protect you from fiat debasement and inflation
Clown world!🤡
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B_radRiffs retweeted
Why US #TradeDeficit continues to balloon: Domestic #Manufacturing #construction DOWN over the last 3 years while gluttonous #DataCenter bubble gobbles imported equipment and materials.
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Sovereign debt crisis lead to money printing and Central Bank QE which is bullish for precious metals
FYI
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Contrarian view
If rates were ramping because of strong growth these auctions wouldn’t tail, they’d stop thru
If they are mooning on inflation fears and sovereign default risk (debasement) then they should tail
US 20-Year Bond Auction
High Yield 5.469% [Tail 0.9 bps]
Bid-to-cover 2.73
Sells $13 bln
Awards 60.05% of bids at high
Primary Dealers take 10.3%
Direct 31.6%
Indirect 58.2%
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Nothing like a little credit angst in France to drive demand for Treasuries
Most think this is just randomly happening if they are even aware of the Sovereign train wreck underway
With odds of a cutback or elimination still out there, 20s have been strengthening on the curve. No reason for today's auction not to go well as it seems headliney duration angst is behind us
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