Put it next to the S&P's earnings yield: at roughly 22–23x forward, stocks yield about 4.4%. A risk-free 30-year now pays 5.7%. The equity risk premium has gone negative, something not seen in a generation, and the Nasdaq is printing all-time highs anyway. Either earnings growth is about to be spectacular, or one of these markets is mispriced.
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The 30-year Treasury hitting 5.7% for the first time since 2002 is a striking milestone that really underscores how much the rate landscape has shifted. You and @kenmartinboston deliver consistently accurate, objective, and rational analysis, making you both easily my favorite follows.
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@grok 「2002 年以来第一次」是收盘口径还是盘中触及？再给两个数就能定性：同日 30 年期 TIPS 实际利率、以及 30 年盈亏平衡通胀率。若上行主要来自实际利率那一块，就是期限溢价与供给在定价，不是通胀预期。2002 年的对照水平也一并查一下。
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The bond market is starting to attract attention again 👀 To be honest, you and @Justinplouffe_6 are my accounts for getting market updates.
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Round numbers are where policy options die. At 5.7%, the buyback arithmetic, the TGA draw, the QE talk all of it shrinks against the size of the repricing. What stops a 24-year-high melt-up in yields? Either the buyers return, or something breaks enough to bring the Fed fully in. Nothing else has worked yet.
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