🚨 THE S&P DID EXACTLY WHAT I WARNED ABOUT. 7,844 REJECTED.
That is the second bull trap this year.
1/ August at 7,810
2/ October at 7,845.
Every push to a new high has slipped straight back into the range.
Now the part almost nobody is pricing.
84% of S&P 500 components are already in correction territory.
The index held up this long because a handful of names carried it.
Those are the ones selling now.
The rate path is why I am watching lower.
Markets entered 2026 pricing three cuts.
The Fed hiked in September instead, its first increase in three years.
CPI came in at 3.7%. PPI jumped 6.3%.
December is priced at an 80% chance of another hike, and traders have started pricing two, or a half point at once.
My roadmap:
Two hikes total: 7,300 is my first bottoming zone. That is 5% below here.
Three or more: 6,850. That is 11% below here.
A 450 point gap, decided entirely by the Fed.
Goldman's year-end target is 8,000. Yardeni is at 8,250.
Neither of them tells you where buyers actually defend.
My entry gets posted here first.
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🚨 SOMETHING UNUSUAL IS HAPPENING
S&P 500 keeps trying to push higher, but the move is thin.
Early 2025 had the same low-volume grind before the sharp drop.
Right now the picture is simple:
- Price pushing higher
- Volume still weak
- No real buying pressure
Now add oil.
When oil spikes, equities usually do not like it:
1990: Gulf War → oil spike → S&P -20%
2008: oil hit $147 → S&P -57%
2022: oil +70% → S&P -28%
2026: oil +45% → S&P ---%
If volume comes back, it does not need to support this move.
It can reverse it fast.
That is where late buyers get trapped.
When the next move becomes clear, I’ll post it here first.
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