ex BlackRock VP | Host of @MilkRoadDaily Podcast | WartimeEthereum.eth

$1 to see analyst portfolio →
I've had some time to digest some charts. Here are my updated thoughts on Bitcoin bitcoin:native The new floor to watch IMO is $75.5K If we lose that, I would flip back bearish and say there's a chance we retest the lows. HOWEVER, this is not my expectation. If you look at the last two years of Bitcoin's price action, this area just above us, between like $ 86-90kish has a huge amount of volume. There should be some resistance there. So, my base case right now is that we see some weak retracement from Bitcoin, but an eventual continuation higher, probably after several failed tests of resistance. This could take a while. This could involve some drops. But for the moment, I would guess that we chop down a bit and find where the bulls step in. $82-83K remains a place of support to watch closely, but this time as support, not resistance. I think there's a chance we see a retest of that area or maybe down to $80K. $78K would be a screaming buy IMO, but that is unlikely. I would say if you are looking for an entry, the low $ 80s is where to open fire. The bias has to be with the bulls for the moment until the bears prove otherwise. Like breaking back below $75.5K. Otherwise, I would still expect bulls to recover no matter how low we go or how long it takes. Needless to say, I think the chances that the cycle low is in now have to be close to like 90%. It would be a HUGE surprise if we traded from $58K all the way to $87K, and then now headed back to $55K. Don't see that happening. Don't expect to see $70K Bitcoin ever again. Like. Ever. It could happen. But it's not likely to ever happen again. Crazy right? Okay. So. What does that mean? It means that I don't think Bitcoin will just rip to $100K this week. I do expect it to get in that neighborhood by EOY. I would also expect at least one stomach-dropping dip before that. The new resistance over our heads between here and $90K should slow the bulls down (something has to at some point?). The bears need to break $75.5K in order for me to take their side again. But I doubt they can even get near that level. They've been weaker than Mitch McConnell for three months straight. And I think a reasonable buy zone is anywhere $83-78K. Ethereum $ETH obviously will be at least $ 250-300K by this time next week, or I eat this post (lol jk). Ethereum is showing strength, which is so delicious I could put it on toast. I'd watch $2500 as the key level on ETH here. If we get back below there, I will be so, so sad haha. Like, honestly, bro, that would be so disappointing. But I hope it holds. And I think it will. Alts are a scattershot right now IMO. All bets are off. Proceed with caution. Everything is made up, and the points don't matter. The whole market is greedy and drunk on euphoric candles. Everything is overbought. Probably best to let things cool a bit. THAT SAID - a lot of people are going to tell you that it's time to jump into small-cap alts with size and hang on to them for months and see what happens. That's a strategy. It does not HAVE to be YOUR strategy. It MAY work. It might also get you rekt. Pace yourself. Size your moves. DFTU. Just for the love of God, don't panic. Don't use leverage. Don't lose your bag. I promise the market will give both bulls and bears PLENTY of chances to make absolute fools of themselves. If you caught a good entry on an altcoin - congratulations - probably best to just stfu and sit on it for a long time and let the market sort itself out. The bulls will win eventually. So just DFTU and hang on while it plays out if you can. Just HODL Alright, see you in Discord. frfr HODL im seriously -- I shared this update with our @milkroaddaily PRO community yesterday. Thought you all might enjoy it too. LMK your thoughts in the comments. If you want to get timely market updates like this from me and ask me questions in Discord day and night, sign up for Milk Road PRO for just a buck. Link in bio. Stay safe, stay educated, stay bullish. WARTIME ETHEREUM
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John Gillen - WartimeEthereum.eth retweeted
So much interesting stuff happening in crypto rn, really feels good and optimistic. Shoutout to everyone else who stayed the course and locked in
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Don't listen to him Buy Bitcoin. Lock in. Buy more Bitcoin. Focus up. Nap later. DFTU HODL
Good evening everyone. Slow down. Read a book. Indulge in a hobby. Take a fall afternoon nap. And have a great weekend.
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John Gillen - WartimeEthereum.eth retweeted
The reason Bitcoin ETFs keep pulling in billions even in a rate-hike environment is more structural than people think. "There is a structural difference now compared to the last three and a half years, thanks to the spot Bitcoin ETFs." And surprisingly - AI-based hacking scares are driving people INTO ETFs so they don't have to hold private keys themselves. Feat. @BitcoinJesusETH @elindinga @Nexo
Hyperliquid’s endgame may be much bigger than crypto perps. @elindinga thinks it has a shot at becoming the #2 crypto asset after Bitcoin, and potentially the “Google of price discovery” for 24/7 global markets. The bet isn’t on a DEX. It’s on an everything exchange. FT @BitcoinJesusETH ⏱ TIME POINTS ⏱ 00:00 - Intro 01:04 - Why Is Bitcoin So Bullish? 05:16 - PRO 05:36 - 100+ Crypto ETFs Incoming? 08:49 - New Money or Split Capital? 11:23 - How Much Upside for Hyperliquid? 15:19 - Can Hyperliquid Beat the Competition? 20:02 - Sponsor: Nexo 20:37 - Who’s Winning the Layer 1 Wars? 27:04 - 21Shares’ Biggest Crypto Takeaways 34:20 - What Comes Next for Bitcoin?
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DYOR And follow @milkroaddaily 🔥🥛
Bitwise Research Lair coin of this week ethereum:0x232ce3bd40fcd6f80f3d55a522d03f25df784ee2 Inspired by @trevor_flipper on @milkroaddaily today
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I like $LIT
Perps aren't just a crypto trend. They might be the second fastest-growing vertical in all of tech. "I believe perps were the fastest-growing vertical in crypto outside of stablecoins. And now I would argue it's growing faster than stablecoins." "I think it's the second fastest-growing vertical in tech outside of AI." That's the bet Trevor King left Delphi to make full-time. FT @BitcoinJesusETH @trevor_flipper @Nexo.
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John Gillen - WartimeEthereum.eth retweeted
vibes rn
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Reminder that ethereum:native not dead 🔥
DAE! 🚀🚀 A reminder that ETH not dead. To state the obvious. RWAs and Stables largely reside on ETH.
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Monitoring the situation 👀
I think the weekly Bitcoin close will lay the groundwork for what Q4 will look like. If Bitcoin accepts above the May high, that will improve the bull case substantially. Acceptance back below would just look like a massive fakeout before typical Q4 weakness (but not necessarily to a new low). You don't have to predict what happens, I think reacting is better in this case.
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John Gillen - WartimeEthereum.eth retweeted
Sky Ecosystem has partnered with @galaxyhq to expand institutional access to sUSDS. Galaxy has added $100M of sUSDS to its balance sheet, approved sUSDS as eligible collateral across its institutional trading business, and purchased SKY. Read more about the partnership ↓
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John Gillen - WartimeEthereum.eth retweeted
Hyperliquid open interest is at an all-time high, above $18B, according to 21Shares Head of Research @elindinga. He expects copycats, the same way Bitcoin spawned Bitcoin Cash, Diamond, and Gold, but perps venues behave differently from L1s because liquidity attracts more liquidity, and when a geopolitical headline hits on a weekend with every other market closed, Hyperliquid is where the price gets discovered. His analogy is Google, which was nowhere near the first search engine and still ended up owning internet search. Feat. @BitcoinJesusETH @elindinga @Nexo
Hyperliquid’s endgame may be much bigger than crypto perps. @elindinga thinks it has a shot at becoming the #2 crypto asset after Bitcoin, and potentially the “Google of price discovery” for 24/7 global markets. The bet isn’t on a DEX. It’s on an everything exchange. FT @BitcoinJesusETH ⏱ TIME POINTS ⏱ 00:00 - Intro 01:04 - Why Is Bitcoin So Bullish? 05:16 - PRO 05:36 - 100+ Crypto ETFs Incoming? 08:49 - New Money or Split Capital? 11:23 - How Much Upside for Hyperliquid? 15:19 - Can Hyperliquid Beat the Competition? 20:02 - Sponsor: Nexo 20:37 - Who’s Winning the Layer 1 Wars? 27:04 - 21Shares’ Biggest Crypto Takeaways 34:20 - What Comes Next for Bitcoin?
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Perps are one of the fastest growing areas in financial history In this episode, Lighter's Head of Growth @trevor_flipper explains the strategy he believes will help Lighter capture the Lion's share of a 100x addressable market. Everyone thinks $LIT is competing with $HYPE but Trevor says it's much bigger than that. Lot of alpha in this one. Enjoy!
The perps war hasn’t even started. @trevor_flipper thinks the market could become 100X bigger as U.S. regulation opens the door to institutions, equities, commodities, and FX. The real battle won’t just be Lighter vs Hyperliquid. It’ll be crypto exchanges vs. Wall Street. FT @BitcoinJesusETH ⏱ TIME POINTS ⏱ 00:00 - Intro 01:14 - Why Lighter Could Be “Generational” 03:58 - What Zero-Fee ZK Trading Unlocks 06:26 - Lighter’s Partnership Strategy 07:41 - Inside the Robinhood Deal 09:26 - Can Distribution Beat Hyperliquid? 11:40 - Winning Institutional Distribution 13:13 - SEC, CFTC & Crypto Regulation 15:10 - Coinbase and Kraken Enter Perps 16:27 - How Big Can Perps Get? 18:39 - Why Lighter Is Expanding Beyond Perps 20:19 - Who Are Options Really For? 23:56 - Lighter’s AI Agent Strategy 26:17 - LIT Buybacks and Token Value 27:52 - Giving Token Holders Real Rights 29:31 - When Lighter Says No to Partners 30:48 - Lighter Is Knocking on Doors 32:31 - Will LIT Staking Rewards Last? 33:07 - Can Zero Fees Last Forever? 36:09 - When Partners Become Competitors 37:01 - Lighter’s Next Big Announcement 38:13 - Where to Follow Trevor and Lighter
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John Gillen - WartimeEthereum.eth retweeted
WSJ: Looks nice in print
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This is worth reading and understanding. Ben is the GOAT
A lot of people interpreted this post in many different ways. I did not realize it would be viewed almost 4M times and that it would end up being one of my most liked posts on this platform, so I wanted to expand on it a bit. If you watched any of my recent videos, all of what I'm about to say are things you have already heard. I think admitting when we are wrong about something is important, as it helps us grow as investors and hopefully allows us to make fewer mistakes in the future. It also communicates to those who choose to listen to our views that we recognize we are fallible. Pretending to be right about everything is silly, and gaslighting an audience by saying "exactly as predicted" about everything is exhausting and not representative of the truth. I also really appreciate all the support many of you showed. It genuinely means a lot. My goal in being on here has always been to help people navigate markets, so when I get something wrong, I think it is important to acknowledge it rather than pretend it did not happen. Since many people took the original post to mean different things, I wanted to clarify what I was actually admitting I was wrong about. Specifically, my post was about Bitcoin taking out the May high, which I had repeatedly said I did not think would happen. If I spend two months saying something is unlikely to happen, and then it happens, I cannot sit here and pretend like I was calling for it when I wasn't. Because of that, I felt I needed to acknowledge that I was wrong. I wish I had not been as deterministic, and that I had been more open-minded to the possibility of a higher high. I should hold myself accountable for my views by admitting when I get things wrong. But that is all my post was meant to convey. Some of the narratives that have developed from that post are not fully representative of my views. Bitcoin is still operating under a difficult macro backdrop that has caused it to underperform other markets for years. Until liquidity conditions improve, I think that relative underperformance could remain an issue. That does not mean Bitcoin cannot have rallies or bull markets, but it could mean that the gains are not as significant as they were during periods when liquidity was more free-flowing. Being wrong about the May high also does not automatically mean that I relinquish every other view I have expressed. I have discussed the possibility of Q4 2026 weakness since Q4 2025. With one week left before Q4 begins, I do not think Bitcoin making a higher high means I should suddenly pretend that view never existed. What it does mean is that I should be less deterministic about it and more willing to change my view as new information comes in. As long as Bitcoin remains above the May high, I have to respect the breakout. Continued acceptance above the range highs would increasingly challenge my broader bear market thesis, which I have honestly had a hard time letting go of. If Bitcoin instead closes a weekly candle back below the May high, then I think weakness into Q4 remains possible. Even then, the fact that Bitcoin already made a higher high could change what that weakness ultimately looks like. Q4 weakness would not necessarily require a new low. And importantly, if Bitcoin does show weakness in Q4, it does not change the fact that I was wrong about what Bitcoin already accomplished in Q3. I would rather use that experience to hopefully become a better investor than pretend it did not happen. The part I am still struggling to reconcile is the macro backdrop. Long-end yields have continued to rise, alongside the dollar and energy. I would normally expect that combination to eventually pressure long-duration assets like crypto. I do not fully understand Bitcoin's move to $87K from a macro perspective, but I can understand it from a technical analysis perspective (golden cross, RSI, etc.) That disconnect is part of why I have taken a step back and decided to be less deterministic. Continued acceptance above the range highs will force me to reconsider parts of my framework. A move back below them would make me more interested in the Q4 weakness thesis again. It is difficult for me to reconcile rising yields, DXY and energy with a sustained bullish Bitcoin move, especially going into Q4 of a midterm year, when Bitcoin has historically experienced significant weakness. But the market does not have to conform to my expectations. My goal going forward is to be more open to different outcomes, more critical of myself when communicating strongly held views, and more humble in my approach to markets. I am a student of the market, and I do not have a crystal ball. It's about time to see what Q4 has in store!
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John Gillen - WartimeEthereum.eth retweeted
Perps may be the fastest-growing corner of crypto, and the US is about to open the floodgates. 🌊 @trevor_flipper (Lighter's head of IR & growth) told @MilkRoadDaily @BitcoinJesusETH how a zero-fee exchange plans to take on Hyperliquid. My notes 👇 🆓 How "zero fees" works Retail pays nothing. Market makers pay instead and get a speed edge in return. With no "last look" they have to quote tight, so retail gets better fills. He says it's not payment for order flow, while admitting it looks and smells like it. 🤝 Distribution > tech Robinhood's Lighter instance splits revenue 50/50, and ~70% of its open interest is real-world assets like stocks. Across Lighter, RWAs are now 20-30% of daily volume. 🇺🇸 The real fight is coming Hyperliquid is ~20x bigger by market cap. But King thinks the US opening makes the market ~100x bigger and competition 10x fiercer, with Coinbase and Kraken lining up too. The Clarity Act failed, but he says the CFTC is moving fast anyway. 🔥 The token 100% of revenue goes to buyback and burn, with ~6% of circulating supply burned since July. Options are coming, with a full suite by year-end. 🤖 Engineer's take He called agentic trading overhyped so far. But the unlock is simple maths: high-turnover bots bleed on fees. At zero fees, strategies that didn't work suddenly do. That's where agents and exchanges like Lighter could meet. Can anyone out-distribute Hyperliquid? 🤔 piped.video/OCiWwSvMCnw?si=usly…
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Does anyone know the ticker for Ethereum?
JUST IN: Cathie Wood's ARK Invest launches tokenized venture fund on Ethereum that trades 24/7.
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John Gillen - WartimeEthereum.eth retweeted
News it out. Excited to work with BlackRock to launch the first-ever Ondo Intelligent Portfolios ETFs 2.0 are here
Introducing Ondo Intelligent Portfolios, the first three portfolios powered by BlackRock. Ondo Intelligent Portfolios introduces a new onchain product category: curated investment portfolios delivered as single onchain transferable tokens. The first three portfolios are based on portfolio strategies developed by BlackRock for Ondo, marking the first time eligible onchain investors can access exposure to such strategies through a single token. 1. BLKHIon: Ondo High Income Powered by BlackRock 2. BLKDIGon: Ondo Diversified Growth Powered by BlackRock 3. BLKGRWon: Ondo High Growth Powered by BlackRock Diversified, professionally constructed strategies have historically required brokerage accounts and traditional fund structures. Now, delivered as peer-to-peer transferable tokens from Ondo, these onchain portfolios become accessible to eligible non-US investors in permitted jurisdictions through the wallets, exchanges, and DeFi applications they already use. “Tokenization creates new ways for portfolio strategies to be delivered through digital infrastructure. Diversified portfolio strategies can be incorporated into tokenized investment products, enabling eligible investors to access diversified allocations through a single instrument. It shows how established portfolio construction approaches can be delivered through new channels and technologies.” - Lisa O’Connor, Global Head of the Model Portfolio Solutions team and Co-CIO for Global Solutions within the Multi-Asset Strategies group at BlackRock Ondo Intelligent Portfolios can unlock novel capabilities: → Programmatic rebalancing → Full composability with DeFi → Complete transparency onchain → Multiple asset classes in a single token This is just the start for Ondo Intelligent Portfolios. The infrastructure is now in place for leading financial institutions to bring their asset allocation expertise onchain.
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