I've had some time to digest some charts. Here are my updated thoughts on Bitcoin bitcoin:native
The new floor to watch IMO is $75.5K
If we lose that, I would flip back bearish and say there's a chance we retest the lows.
HOWEVER, this is not my expectation.
If you look at the last two years of Bitcoin's price action, this area just above us, between like $ 86-90kish has a huge amount of volume. There should be some resistance there.
So, my base case right now is that we see some weak retracement from Bitcoin, but an eventual continuation higher, probably after several failed tests of resistance.
This could take a while. This could involve some drops. But for the moment, I would guess that we chop down a bit and find where the bulls step in.
$82-83K remains a place of support to watch closely, but this time as support, not resistance. I think there's a chance we see a retest of that area or maybe down to $80K.
$78K would be a screaming buy IMO, but that is unlikely. I would say if you are looking for an entry, the low $ 80s is where to open fire.
The bias has to be with the bulls for the moment until the bears prove otherwise. Like breaking back below $75.5K. Otherwise, I would still expect bulls to recover no matter how low we go or how long it takes.
Needless to say, I think the chances that the cycle low is in now have to be close to like 90%. It would be a HUGE surprise if we traded from $58K all the way to $87K, and then now headed back to $55K. Don't see that happening. Don't expect to see $70K Bitcoin ever again. Like. Ever. It could happen. But it's not likely to ever happen again. Crazy right?
Okay. So. What does that mean?
It means that I don't think Bitcoin will just rip to $100K this week. I do expect it to get in that neighborhood by EOY. I would also expect at least one stomach-dropping dip before that.
The new resistance over our heads between here and $90K should slow the bulls down (something has to at some point?). The bears need to break $75.5K in order for me to take their side again. But I doubt they can even get near that level. They've been weaker than Mitch McConnell for three months straight.
And I think a reasonable buy zone is anywhere $83-78K.
Ethereum
$ETH obviously will be at least $ 250-300K by this time next week, or I eat this post (lol jk).
Ethereum is showing strength, which is so delicious I could put it on toast. I'd watch $2500 as the key level on ETH here. If we get back below there, I will be so, so sad haha. Like, honestly, bro, that would be so disappointing. But I hope it holds. And I think it will.
Alts are a scattershot right now IMO. All bets are off. Proceed with caution. Everything is made up, and the points don't matter. The whole market is greedy and drunk on euphoric candles. Everything is overbought. Probably best to let things cool a bit. THAT SAID - a lot of people are going to tell you that it's time to jump into small-cap alts with size and hang on to them for months and see what happens. That's a strategy. It does not HAVE to be YOUR strategy. It MAY work. It might also get you rekt. Pace yourself. Size your moves. DFTU.
Just for the love of God, don't panic. Don't use leverage. Don't lose your bag. I promise the market will give both bulls and bears PLENTY of chances to make absolute fools of themselves.
If you caught a good entry on an altcoin - congratulations - probably best to just stfu and sit on it for a long time and let the market sort itself out. The bulls will win eventually. So just DFTU and hang on while it plays out if you can.
Just HODL
Alright, see you in Discord.
frfr HODL im seriously
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WARTIME ETHEREUM