first day in Rio recap 🎥

SECRETARY RUBIO on VENEZUELA: What we want to see is not only that you have free and fair elections, but that you have an enduring Republic.

A few hours ago, INEGI, the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography, a government agency, published its Encuesta Intercensal (EIC) 2025 (intercensal survey 2025). Here is the press release: inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprens… Page 9 reports the total fertility rate (TFR). INEGI estimates Mexico’s TFR for 2024 at 1.2 (screenshot in Spanish below). Yes, 1.2, only slightly above Japan’s level in the same year (1.15). By 2026, Mexico’s TFR could fall below Japan’s. I don’t find words to describe this.

While Canada pivots to the EU, Mexico's president announces plans to narrow the trade deficit by promoting MORE U.S. imports. elceo.com/economia/son-dos-l…

If I had to describe Brazil’s election in 2 words, they’d be “apathetic polarization.” Yes, it’s (still) a 50-50 country, but the clear vibe of the 2026 election is the lack of enthusiasm on either side. You feel it the moment you arrive — so hard to find anybody who’s truly EXCITED to vote for Lula or Flávio. So different from 2018 or 2022 when Brazilians felt there was so much at stake — because of the bad economy, the pandemic and the threats to democracy. This time around, voters say meh, the economy is OK but my salary seems worth less, Lula is OK but old, Flávio has skeletons but is not perceived as aggressive as his dad. In this… windless environment even the slightest breeze can seem relevant. Flávio is currently having a moment in polls, it’s probably because of what’s happening in Supreme Court, but I’ve spoken to analysts who wonder if it’s actually voters reacting to higher fuel prices from Iran war and overall inflationary pressures and household debt. It’s a VERY hard election to call because it’s simultaneously very close but the level of conviction among many voters is so low. Flávio slight favorite today but for now I’d avoiding making big bets either way. PS “apathetic polarization” is a bit academic for me but the best I could do 👍🙏

If I had to describe Brazil’s election in 2 words, they’d be “apathetic polarization.” Yes, it’s (still) a 50-50 country, but the clear vibe of the 2026 election is the lack of enthusiasm on either side. You feel it the moment you arrive — so hard to find anybody who’s truly EXCITED to vote for Lula or Flávio. So different from 2018 or 2022 when Brazilians felt there was so much at stake — because of the bad economy, the pandemic and the threats to democracy. This time around, voters say meh, the economy is OK but my salary seems worth less, Lula is OK but old, Flávio has skeletons but is not perceived as aggressive as his dad. In this… windless environment even the slightest breeze can seem relevant. Flávio is currently having a moment in polls, it’s probably because of what’s happening in Supreme Court, but I’ve spoken to analysts who wonder if it’s actually voters reacting to higher fuel prices from Iran war and overall inflationary pressures and household debt. It’s a VERY hard election to call because it’s simultaneously very close but the level of conviction among many voters is so low. Flávio slight favorite today but for now I’d avoiding making big bets either way. PS “apathetic polarization” is a bit academic for me but the best I could do 👍🙏

In living rooms, offices and private clubs across Miami, prominent Cuban-Americans are mapping out a provisional government, gaming out who could lead Cuba’s nine million people. on.wsj.com/4roY4m6

When will Bolivia become a German-speaking majority country? Given current trends, in around 90 years. Bolivia’s estimated total fertility rate of 1.56 hides a big asymmetry: a small minority group, the Mennonites, who speak Low German, has a much higher one. Although it is hard to get exact figures, their fertility rate is probably around 7. Given that Bolivian Mennonites are about 150,000, but very young, there are around 6,500 new Mennonite births a year in Bolivia, or 4.2% of the total of 153,204 births. This also means that the total fertility rate of the rest of Bolivia is around 1.51. Let’s imagine that current trends continue. This is a big “assumption” and I will come back to it soon. That is, the total fertility rate of Mennonites is 7, the total fertility rate of the rest of Bolivians is 1.51, and the net emigration rate of the rest is 3.5 per 1,000. Also, for simplicity, let me assume there are no transfers between the two populations. The table in the post shows how the Mennonites will grow from the current size of 150,000 to around 5 million in 2116, when they will become the majority of Bolivians. This growth rate is fast, but not unprecedented. In 1986, 40 years ago, there were only around 17,500 Mennonites in Bolivia, and the net immigration of Mennonites, as far as I can tell, has been small. Now, of course, this calculation is just a slightly tongue-in-cheek scenario, not a forecast. First, the fertility of the rest of Bolivians can recover (or fall further, accelerating the process). Second, as Mennonites become a larger group, their ability to keep their fertility rate at 7 might collapse. And many Mennonites may abandon the denomination. My calculation only makes a very simple point: take two populations in a country with different fertility rates. Keep the differences for 100 years, and you have a totally different country. People just don’t get that fertility is like an interest rate: it compounds over time.

Com Flávio fortalecido, centrão já discute apoiá-lo no segundo turno folha.uol.com.br/colunas/pai…

Agradezco a Anderson Pedroso, rector de la PUC-Río @pucriooficial, por entregar al papa León XIV @pontifex_es el Informe “Rupturas y oportunidades” de la @cepal_onu América Latina y el Caribe es una región que el Santo Padre conoce muy bien: La invitación es a aunar esfuerzos para aprovechar los activos y superar las trampas del desarrollo en nuestros países en la nueva era geopolítica. Más detalles sobre el informe y su descarga gratuita, en el siguiente enlace sitios.cepal.org/geopolitica…

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