NEW: Reuters, citing an Iranian Official, announces that Iran has no intention of making any concessions on their nuclear program. This very much falls in line with the recent reporting about the U.S./Iran “talks” at the UN General Assembly in recent days. What was initially claimed to be a “3 hour meeting” turned out to be indirect talks via mediators… like they’ve always been… Beyond this however, the terms Iran offered to the United States were the same they’ve been ever since the MOU fell apart: 1) Lifting of U.S. blockade 2) Unfreezing of assets UP FRONT 3) End of war on “all fronts” Only THEN would Iran and the United States RETURN to the previous Memorandum of Understanding. There are no “negotiations” happening right now. This is the same exact place we’ve been stuck in for months now. Only the up front release of frozen assets will provide Iran sufficient incentive to trust the United States, but the Trump Administration has to therefore irreversibly hand over cash to Iran with no guarantee they hold up their end of the bargain. And thus… There is no deal to be had until far more economic pain is imposed on either side.

NEW: What everyone has known to be true for many weeks now is finally confirmed: This war ain’t going anywhere.

NEW: More Ansar Allah (Houthi) strikes are targeting the Saudi region of Jazan. This has been a consistent target of Ansar Allah strikes over recent weeks, and we should expect to see increasing escalation in this conflict over the month.

NEW: According to AFP, Iranian FM Abbas Araghchi had offered the Trump Administration a deal to reopen Hormuz. But don’t waste your time getting your hopes up. This deal will CERTAINLY include non-starters for Trump like the up front release of frozen assets. This is an effort by Iran to make it look like Trump is the problem to attaining a deal (which is true), so they can tell the Iranian people and the world that they did everything they could to avoid a resumption of military escalation.

Yeah… my account definitely got nuked after all the Israel-focused tweets of the last 48 hours…

I think it’s HIGHLY likely that more ships are being hit by Iran than are being reported by the UKMTO. We have very recent historical precedent for this, as we know ADNOC (Abu Dhabi National Oil Company) has PUBLICLY stated that more of their vessels have been hit than exist in UKMTO reporting. The Omani Route is not remotely sustainable.

We all realize that the Iranian government isn’t going to be overthrown, right? We’re 7 months in and haven’t even seen SMALL protests taking place… The US has ZERO avenue to victory.

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I continue to stress that while a lot of oil is getting out of Hormuz the cost of getting those barrels out is *very* high ($30-40+/bbl, excluding the cost of the US military) That doesn't work if global prices fall (or Gulf exporters try to press their prices higher)

NEW: Iranian sources, to the surprise of NOBODY deny that “technical talks” are taking place between the United States and Iran. This was some of the most egregiously false reporting I have seen throughout the entirety of this war, which says a lot. Iran has been EXTREMELY consistent in their demands, and it was held with Witkoff and Kushner via third-country mediators… There’s no “technical talks” happening, that’s ridiculous.

BREAKING: Multiple media outlets are reporting that an “anonymous US official” claims that SIXTY vessels transited the Strait of Hormuz yesterday, with 40 MILLION barrels of oil transiting in the last 48 hours… Let’s examine this realistically. First and foremost, the “60 vessels” claim, per NewsNation, includes 40 vessels transiting along the Omani Route, thus a remaining 20 transiting the Iranian corridor… That is FAR too many for Iran to let through believing they aren’t getting any kind of kickback for doing so. That would be strategic malpractice to the nth degree. Secondly… 40M barrels over 48 hours? MAYBE! I’m highly, highly skeptical, but MAYBE.. now what is the remainder of the week going to look like now? 40M over two days, followed by 15M over the next 5 still means only 8M barrels per day are transiting on average. That’s why we use SEVEN DAY AVERAGES people! It should also be noted that with the Saudi East-West Pipeline out of commission, we should EXPECT to see higher transits through the Strait of Hormuz as Saudi Arabia attempts to re-re-route these shipments under U.S. air cover. But let’s look at this in a NUANCED way that many will hate: Undeniably, a LOT of oil IS moving along the Omani Route under U.S. air cover. It’s not just “one or two trackers” that corroborate this data, it’s effectively EVERYONE that tracks this closely. There may be variance, but undeniably a lot is moving. … But 2B barrels of oil have already been lost throughout this conflict. There is a CONSISTENT daily deficit being run on top of this. The COST of shipping is enormous now. The Gulf of Oman ship to ship transfers are a huge constraint… And Iran will escalate if they need to.

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Israel is setting the conditions for chaos in Syria, which will undoubtedly result in a resurgence of ISIS/AQ. To prevent this, and to stop all Israeli aggression, the U.S. must restrain the Israelis by cutting off all aid. Israel’s actions are sabotaging U.S. interests in the region, full stop. If Israel conducts attacks in Syria, Sharaa will be forced to either respond & then be targeted by Israel, or face hostility from his base of hardline Sunnis. This is an un-winnable situation for Sharaa, and for us. Let me be clear: I do not support Sharaa nor am I happy to see him in power, or at the White House for that matter. But we put him in power and legitimized his presidency, and now we have to deal with the consequences and navigate the fallout if it goes wrong. If Sharaa gets killed or is militarily challenged, ISIS will come back and the U.S. will get sucked right back into Syria. I remain wary of Sharaa because of his past. But the chaos that will ensue if he is removed is far more dangerous for us now than if he had never been brought to power in the first place.

NEW: Reuters, citing an Iranian Official, announces that Iran has no intention of making any concessions on their nuclear program. This very much falls in line with the recent reporting about the U.S./Iran “talks” at the UN General Assembly in recent days. What was initially claimed to be a “3 hour meeting” turned out to be indirect talks via mediators… like they’ve always been… Beyond this however, the terms Iran offered to the United States were the same they’ve been ever since the MOU fell apart: 1) Lifting of U.S. blockade 2) Unfreezing of assets UP FRONT 3) End of war on “all fronts” Only THEN would Iran and the United States RETURN to the previous Memorandum of Understanding. There are no “negotiations” happening right now. This is the same exact place we’ve been stuck in for months now. Only the up front release of frozen assets will provide Iran sufficient incentive to trust the United States, but the Trump Administration has to therefore irreversibly hand over cash to Iran with no guarantee they hold up their end of the bargain. And thus… There is no deal to be had until far more economic pain is imposed on either side.