3 scenarios. Assign your own odds:
1. Thread the needle
Aligned RSI. Productivity + longevity. Deflation.
Trade: mega long AI, n/l BTC
Suckers: the dead
2. Overhyped
No RSI. Hype cycle. Debasement, socialism, fascism
Trade: mega long BTC, l/n AI
Suckers: bonds, cash, late AI retail
3. Game Over
Misaligned ASI. We all die.
Trade: don’t invest. Spend it.
Suckers: grinders trying to escape the perm. underclass
I resigned from Anthropic today. I spent the last three years doing pretraining research at both OpenAI and Anthropic. Neither company is acting responsibly. They are racing straight to self-improving superintelligence and gambling with our lives. More thoughts below.