On the Road to Lviv, my book-length poetic meditation on Adam Zagajewski, cultural diplomacy, and the Russian invasion of Ukraine, is now available @arrowsmithpress.

And Trump demands that Zelenskyy stop bombing Russian refineries which fuel Putin's war crimes. Hopefully some in the media will ask Trump about this Russian terrorism.

RT @suljagicemir1: Dear friends, Unfortunately, the Srebrenica Memorial Center continues to be targeted by the corrupt Bosnian Serb police…

No one will stop him. He knows that.

A Ballpark in the Tetons, Because Nothing Beautiful May Be Left Alone! There is a particular kind of person who walks into a cathedral and thinks it would look better with a burger bar by the altar, and according to the Washington Post that person is now running the United States. Major League Baseball apparently rang the administration and asked about playing a game in a national park, and rather than laughing and hanging up, an official was dispatched to Grand Teton this week to scout the place. For a stadium. In front of the mountains. This is the whole Trump method, really. He sees something good, something that took ten million years and no committee whatsoever to produce, and he cannot rest until he has pressed his own gaudy shape into it like a thumb into wet plaster. He is a tumour with a real estate licence. The Tetons have survived glaciers, wildfires and Hollywood. Floodlights and a hot dog concession may finally be too much.

I keep thinking there has to be a bottom with Trump, and he keeps proving me wrong. A U.N. commission, for the first time in 70 years, passed a resolution calling for women and girls’ rights and justice and gender equality, 37 to 1. The lone dissenting nation was Donald Trump’s delegation from the United States. He’s against female equality. A new low for Trump. I urge you to remember this in November.

One are the most egregious acts by Trump’s corrupt judge Aileen Cannon is blocking the release of Jack Smith’s Vol 2 report showing Trump’s treason with classified documents. She had no right to do it, and it should’ve never been followed. She’s part of the conspiracy.

Reflecting pool as it should be: beautiful, serene. Luxembourg Garden, Paris.

Incredible: another Ukrainian famine is unfolding, this time in Russian-occupied Oleshky. The remaining inhabitants of what used to be a thriving small city, now down to about 6000 people, are blockaded by Russian forces and cut off from food and water. bbc.com/news/articles/c60qxy…

Is Trump's meeting with President Xi an utter humiliation for the U.S., or is it going exactly as planned? @JordanKlepper weighs in

The head of Egyptian intelligence warned Israelis of an impending Hamas attack before October 7. Read @vmsalama theatlantic.com/national-sec…

We have a rogue partisan Supreme Court. Using the underhanded emergency docket to give a middle finger to the Constitution, which provides NO ROLE for the executive branch in administering voting and elections. Six lawless partisan hacks enabling distortion of elections. Disgraceful

Meischa was Roger Marshall's patient. This is her story.

I had goosebumps the first time I walked into the Hall of Flags at Main State. It was an inspiration for this newly minted FSO. Reaffirmed my commitment for all the subsequent years. Now those flags are gone. Just U.S. flags, we're not America First, we are America alone. Tragic.

TRUMP JUST ARMED THE MILITARY AND POINTED IT AT DEMOCRATS Not a metaphor. Not hyperbole. National Guard troops in Washington DC got a directive to start carrying loaded sidearms on the street. That happened on a Sunday. Like it was nothing The executive order is titled about a "DC crime emergency." The actual text expands National Guard deployment powers NATIONWIDE Read that again. Nationwide And which cities is Trump "considering" for this armed rollout next. Not Tulsa. Not Boise. Every single city floated so far is run by Democrats Memphis already got the treatment. Now Russ Vought is asking for over 10 billion dollars to build it into a permanent machine — more Park Police, more federalized boots on the ground, funded through fiscal 2027 That's not a crime emergency response. That's a standing occupation force built to punish blue cities and Trump gets to pick the targets himself No debate. No vote. No city council asked. One man decides which American cities get treated like hostile territory and which ones don't Meanwhile actual violent crime data doesn't drive a single one of these decisions. Political maps do This is the same man who spent four years screaming about federal overreach turning federal troops into his personal enforcement squad against his own political enemies Armed National Guard on American streets, deployed by zip code of who didn't vote for him They are not stopping at DC This is the blueprint and Trump just showed you exactly how it works Share it before they figure out how to make this look normal

Making the world safe for war criminals.

President Trump-Rubio are reportedly preparing to unleash sweeping sanctions to cripple International Criminal Court. One potential consequence: The release of some of the world's worst criminals held by the Court. Case 1: Philippines' Duterte held for crimes against humanity

I'd encourage everyone to read the Danish military intelligence assessment in full, and not rely on excitable social media upsums. Here is the top line: "The Danish Defence Intelligence Service (DDIS) assesses that Russia will intensify its hybrid war by carrying out more frequent attacks against the West and NATO, with greater consequences for the targeted countries than in the past. This could include destructive cyber attacks that cripple critical societal functions as well as sabotage attacks that carry a high risk of casualties." In other words, Russia will continue doing what it's already doing (terrorist attacks against hard and soft targets, cyberoperations), only more so. This is an uncontroversial assessment across Western intelligence services, so far as I've been able to determine. DDIS continues: "At the same time, there is a low but growing risk that Russia will launch a limited military attack against one or several NATO countries bordering Russia....Such a limited military attack could take the form of isolated strikes with long‑range weapons on infrastructure that is vital to the support to Ukraine. In this situation, Russia might then claim that the weapons only struck NATO territory because they were jammed by Ukraine. It could also be a so-called false flag operation, where Russia uses Ukrainian‑made drones to attack a NATO country." The scenario envisaged here (a low but growing risk) is a plausibly deniable conventional attack by Russia. The objective would be twofold. First, to sow panic and confusion in the targeted country or countries, and encourage skepticism of the official government version of what just happened. "Maybe it was the Ukrainians." "Maybe it was an accident." "Maybe no attack took place and the deep state is trying to foment World War III." Thirty seconds on this hellsite should be enough to convince you that counterfactual narratives would be easy enough to amplify, especially in countries with elections forthcoming. A "limited military attack" psychologically would just be a heightened form of "hybrid" war because it's designed to overwhelm and demoralize the population and make its think that supporting Ukraine just isn't worth it since those not at war are now liable to become collateral damage. The second objective of such an attack would be to gauge NATO's response to it -- and this is key bit, because, as DDIS also states: "Russia will likely carry out military attacks only if it assesses that such attacks will not result in a war by triggering a collective NATO military response. However, Russia is likely uncertain about what could trigger such a war. Consequently, there is a risk that Russia assesses that the NATO countries will not respond collectively, especially if Russia assesses that the United States cannot or will not support the European NATO countries in a potential war against Russia." (Italics added.) You wouldn't be wrong to detect a hint of political messaging here. (All intel services deny they do any such thing but they all do.) This is Denmark, a country that just stared down a possible U.S. invasion and annexation of Greenland, which would have meant the disintegration of NATO. Trump has spent his entire second term (and much of his first term) doubting the Inviolability of Article V. His Pentagon has given NATO allies questionnaires to fill out to prove their worthiness as allies, while it undergoes a force posture review with ominous media leaks about what Bridge Colby and his minion might do (25,000 U.S. troops withdrawn, a scuppered U.S. base in Poland, etc.) Now comes a frenzy of intelligence reporting across Europe about a possible Russian attack on NATO, all kickstarted by a CIA briefing delivered to the Poles, Scandinavians and Balts months ago with a warning that they're probably on their own if and when such an attack happens. Never let a good crisis go to waste... Russia isn't sure what would trigger a war with NATO, so how might NATO make it sure? A "limited military attack" can be deterred if Washington telegraphs its intent to enforce Article V in word and deed by stating clearly and repeatedly what would constitute a casus belli in 2026 and, of course, by keeping U.S. troops in Europe.

Word.

On the issue of press freedom, remember: China has jailed HK newspaper publisher @SupportJimmyLai who’s now dying in prison, and Trump himself has requested his release. For Trump to ban US news outlets & praise Chinese state media is remarkable.

Xi Jinping is in Washington and meets Trump today, September 24. The proposed $14 billion Taiwan arms package has been held up for months, and Trump explicitly described it after his May meeting with Xi as a "very good negotiating chip." Reuters reports that Xi is expected today to press Trump to halt U.S. arms sales to Taiwan altogether. If Trump does China’s bidding, he may be setting us on a course toward direct conflict with China. Beijing may perceive an increasingly favorable opportunity: a persuadable and transactional president; U.S. stocks of critical munitions already inadequate for a prolonged conflict and further depleted by the war with Iran; a U.S. Navy numerically smaller than China’s and burdened by maintenance delays, inadequate shipbuilding and repair capacity, and the enormous logistical difficulties of sustaining a war across the western Pacific; and a country distracted by a war of choice in the Middle East. But Trump may already be inclined to let Taiwan be taken with minimal American response. When Xi reportedly asked him in May whether the United States would defend Taiwan if China attacked, Trump declined to answer, while saying that the last thing America needed was another distant war. This would be a problem. China would have broken through the first island chain, greatly improving its ability to project military power into the western Pacific. TSMC would be destroyed, captured, or blockaded, critically threatening global access to advanced semiconductors. China would not simply inherit a functioning semiconductor industry either: it would remain dependent on a global supply chain that includes ASML’s lithography systems, Western chip designs, specialized materials, software, and technical expertise. The disruption would extend far beyond semiconductors: the Taiwan Strait is one of the world’s most important commercial shipping routes, with roughly 44% of the global container fleet transiting it. Our allies in East Asia would have reason to question the credibility of American security guarantees, potentially strengthening arguments in countries such as Japan and South Korea for developing their own nuclear deterrents. North Korea could also conclude that American attention and military resources had been diverted and that U.S. extended deterrence had become less credible, increasing the danger of opportunistic aggression on the Korean Peninsula. The damage to deterrence would extend beyond East Asia. If China successfully changed the regional order through military force while the United States stood aside, other revisionist states could reasonably reassess both the credibility of American security commitments and the costs of using force to achieve their objectives. Trump, hardly the bastion of wisdom on geopolitics, may commit us to an unbearable folly: weakening deterrence against a revanchist power seeking a vastly stronger position in the Pacific, thereby increasing the risk of precisely the war he presumably wants to avoid, but may, in the end, be forced to fight because of the dire consequences of a Chinese conquest of Taiwan. And if deterrence fails, we could find ourselves in an open conflict between the world’s two most powerful states, both armed with nuclear weapons. His transactionalism may end up killing us all.