Plan B?

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The sky over Kyiv tonight. A Russian drone attack has been ongoing for two hours.

The White House is barring CNN from flying on Air Force One on Saturday as part of the news outlet’s duties covering the president on behalf of major television networks. cnn.com/2026/09/25/politics/…

I’ve been hearing rumors from sources — including troops — for months that there have been more killed than previously acknowledged, but officials would never go on record about it. Hiding service member deaths from Americans feels criminal.

Wild stuff. Sheri Mecklenberg, career prosecutor accused of misconduct in Broadview 6 case, resigns from DOJ. NYT obtained her scathing resignation letter, in which she says the U.S. attorney directed her to bring felony charges over her objection. nytimes.com/interactive/2026…

4:00 pm Friday Security Council Stakeout Press Encounter by Seyed Abbas Araghchi, Minister for Foreign Affairs, Islamic Republic of Iran

🚨 14 senators, including 7 Republicans, question Trump's reported decision to invite Putin to G-20 in Miami and urge him to reverse course. GOP signers: — Wicker — Armstrong — Cornyn — Curtis — Moran — Tillis — McConnell foreign.senate.gov/imo/media…

The White House sends this incredibly short, incredibly non-specific readout of the meeting with Xi that says nothing about deliverables or exactly what was discussed. A single sentence. “President Trump and President Xi discussed the economy, trade, Super Intelligence, and cooperation on numerous issues of shared importance.” Also referred back to Trump's Truth Social post: truthsocial.com/@realDonaldT…

My latest in @postlocal

our take on what happened and didn't happen #unga81 'Kabuki Diplomacy Between US and #Iran at UNGA' @StimsonMEP @lrozen @gbrew24 @NickKristof @NPRinskeep @glcarlstrom @AliVaez @HamidRezaAz stimson.org/2026/kabuki-dipl…

Great piece by @barbaraslavin1, Kabuki diplomacy between Iran and U.S. stimson.org/2026/kabuki-dipl…

FT: Iranian-backed Houthis in Yemen have written to the EU to say they will not target European ships in the Red Sea, even as the rebels seek to tighten their grip over the key Bab al-Mandeb Strait. In a letter this month to the EU’s foreign and security policy arm, the Houthis sought to reassure Europeans that the militants’ offensive along Yemen’s southern coast was not intended to disrupt international shipping, said two diplomats briefed on the matter.

This is devastating. My father was a physician. He never sued a patient.

This is a killer ad. If Hamilton defeats Marshall for Senate in Kansas, include it in your analysis.

I could hear air raid sirens and soon after – air defense flak. This is the ninth alert in Kyiv since midnight. Seven people died, 46 were wounded today as Russian military attacked the city.

Gas in $6 in Michigan

RT @HamidRezaAz: From what I understand, the #Iran|ian leadership knows that if there is a chance for a deal, it is more likely before the…

I think @HamidRezaAz nails it (once again). The leadership is prepared to negotiate; they perceive an opportunity to reach a deal before mid-terms; they see little reason to alter their negotiating position; and their read is that the US will likely not go for this proposal. This is about establishment a credible basis to negotiate *at some point.* If they can get a deal now, great. If it only becomes possible after more time/pressure/calculated escalation, fine.

Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner met Kremlin envoy Kirill Dmitriev in New York following their visits to Moscow and Kyiv earlier this month. Bloomberg had reported that Dmitriev was expected to receive new US proposals concerning the war. kyivpost.com/post/85432

I'd encourage everyone to read the Danish military intelligence assessment in full, and not rely on excitable social media upsums. Here is the top line: "The Danish Defence Intelligence Service (DDIS) assesses that Russia will intensify its hybrid war by carrying out more frequent attacks against the West and NATO, with greater consequences for the targeted countries than in the past. This could include destructive cyber attacks that cripple critical societal functions as well as sabotage attacks that carry a high risk of casualties." In other words, Russia will continue doing what it's already doing (terrorist attacks against hard and soft targets, cyberoperations), only more so. This is an uncontroversial assessment across Western intelligence services, so far as I've been able to determine. DDIS continues: "At the same time, there is a low but growing risk that Russia will launch a limited military attack against one or several NATO countries bordering Russia....Such a limited military attack could take the form of isolated strikes with long‑range weapons on infrastructure that is vital to the support to Ukraine. In this situation, Russia might then claim that the weapons only struck NATO territory because they were jammed by Ukraine. It could also be a so-called false flag operation, where Russia uses Ukrainian‑made drones to attack a NATO country." The scenario envisaged here (a low but growing risk) is a plausibly deniable conventional attack by Russia. The objective would be twofold. First, to sow panic and confusion in the targeted country or countries, and encourage skepticism of the official government version of what just happened. "Maybe it was the Ukrainians." "Maybe it was an accident." "Maybe no attack took place and the deep state is trying to foment World War III." Thirty seconds on this hellsite should be enough to convince you that counterfactual narratives would be easy enough to amplify, especially in countries with elections forthcoming. A "limited military attack" psychologically would just be a heightened form of "hybrid" war because it's designed to overwhelm and demoralize the population and make its think that supporting Ukraine just isn't worth it since those not at war are now liable to become collateral damage. The second objective of such an attack would be to gauge NATO's response to it -- and this is key bit, because, as DDIS also states: "Russia will likely carry out military attacks only if it assesses that such attacks will not result in a war by triggering a collective NATO military response. However, Russia is likely uncertain about what could trigger such a war. Consequently, there is a risk that Russia assesses that the NATO countries will not respond collectively, especially if Russia assesses that the United States cannot or will not support the European NATO countries in a potential war against Russia." (Italics added.) You wouldn't be wrong to detect a hint of political messaging here. (All intel services deny they do any such thing but they all do.) This is Denmark, a country that just stared down a possible U.S. invasion and annexation of Greenland, which would have meant the disintegration of NATO. Trump has spent his entire second term (and much of his first term) doubting the Inviolability of Article V. His Pentagon has given NATO allies questionnaires to fill out to prove their worthiness as allies, while it undergoes a force posture review with ominous media leaks about what Bridge Colby and his minion might do (25,000 U.S. troops withdrawn, a scuppered U.S. base in Poland, etc.) Now comes a frenzy of intelligence reporting across Europe about a possible Russian attack on NATO, all kickstarted by a CIA briefing delivered to the Poles, Scandinavians and Balts months ago with a warning that they're probably on their own if and when such an attack happens. Never let a good crisis go to waste... Russia isn't sure what would trigger a war with NATO, so how might NATO make it sure? A "limited military attack" can be deterred if Washington telegraphs its intent to enforce Article V in word and deed by stating clearly and repeatedly what would constitute a casus belli in 2026 and, of course, by keeping U.S. troops in Europe.