Director, UVA @Center4Politics. Author, The Kennedy Half Century bit.ly/3hSzJp5. Read the Crystal Ball every week: linktr.ee/c4politics

Charlottesville, VA
A favorite JFK quote: "The hottest places in hell are reserved for those who, in times of great moral crisis, maintain their neutrality.'
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Larry Sabato retweeted
First the Trump administration claimed there were 16K noncitizens on NV's voter rolls, sans evidence. Then they downsized the claim to...185! Now it turns out even that was wrong! @eric_neugeboren has obtained the correspondence through a public records request.
Nevada election officials have found no evidence to support the Trump administration’s claims that 185 noncitizens could be on the state’s voter rolls — and said their records indicate they are actually citizens. thenevadaindependent.com/art…
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Larry Sabato retweeted
different way of looking at gasoline and diesel prices...
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Larry Sabato retweeted
This remains one of greatest posts of all time and they didn't even realise
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This was in 2012. But Trump is right as rain.
Trump in 2011: The president of China came a few months ago and we gave him a state dinner. Now, when people are screwing you, you don't give them state dinners.
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Larry Sabato retweeted
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This is a killer ad. If Hamilton defeats Marshall for Senate in Kansas, include it in your analysis.
Meischa was Roger Marshall's patient. This is her story.
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Larry Sabato retweeted
Replying to @LarrySabato
The DOD has also been running propaganda, not the usual “join the army”, ads in movie theatres for quite a while. piped.video/Vblkl3k4Avc
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Larry Sabato retweeted
One problem for the GOP in our polling: young voters. 2024: D+10 2026 (RV): D+20, -42 (!) approval 2026 (LV): D+33, -47 approval Essentially, large chunks of the groups Trump gained with in 2024 have no interest in 2026, and the ones that do are voting Democrat and hate him.
Replying to @lxeagle17
FWIW, there is a glimmer of hope for Republicans in that our *registered voter* screen shows D+6, and our LV screen shows D+8.8. They'd keep the Senate at D+6, I think. But the ones who don't want to vote don't like Trump either, and these turnout gaps happen in every midterm.
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Larry Sabato retweeted
New Jersey's 7th congressional district is rated as Likely Democratic in the latest DDHQ Forecast. Democrat Rebecca Bennett has an 80% chance of unseating incumbent Republican Thomas Kean Jr. Democrats only need to net three seats to secure a majority in the House.
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Larry Sabato retweeted
🚨Kansas U.S. Senate Poll🚨 🔵 Adam Hamilton - 50% 🔴 Roger Marshall (Inc) - 48% Wedgewood Likely Voters 9/24
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Blatantly political GOP/Trump TV ad PAID FOR WITH GOVT FUNDS
So I was just watching Fox News and this commercial played during Jesse Watters show. It says “Paid for by the US Government.” This is clearly a campaign ad. And the singers are just singing over and over again, “Love me” - over images of Trump. @CBSMiami @CBSNews
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Larry Sabato retweeted
Remember that 2024 was Trump +1.5 in margin. For 2026, we estimate likely voters would have voted for Harris by ~2 points. This is mostly because we just aren't seeing nearly the same level of enthusiasm for Republicans.
It's early, with only about 64,000 ballots cast so far, but the initial EV turnout in Virginia are consistent more of what Democrats want to see. The early vote currently models at roughly Harris+29. Most of that margin reflects strong Democratic turnout among high-propensity voters, those who cast ballots in all three of the 2020, 2022, and 2024 general elections. But, it's actually among these high-propensity voters where Republicans are holding on the best. The big for Republicans isn't the overall partisan lean of the early vote (Republicans of course vote later and have come out on ED in the past) but rather it's the pattern among low-propensity voters: the ones who have already turned out are doing so at the highest rates in the most Democratic parts of the state. The potential turnout asymmetry does parallel what we've seen in primaries and other recent elections, that Republicans were hoping would revert this November. This of course may not continue because it's very early in the Early Voting period, and I wouldn't even say it's more likely than not to hold at this magnitude. But it's the type of thing that does make a Democratic upside scenario plausible. In an upper-quartile outcome for the party, the 2026 electorate could be Harris+4 or better nationally for instance, which would put Republicans at risk of really steep losses.
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NATIONAL POLL How excited are you to vote in the November 2026 Midterm Elections? 71% very excited / 20% somewhat excited / 7% not too excited / 3% not at all "Very excited" to vote party: Democrats: 78% Independents: 70% Republicans: 66% emersoncollegepolling.com/se…
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Larry Sabato retweeted
New NYT/Siena polls reinforce a recent Crystal Ball rating change (MI to Leans D) as well as one we didn’t change (NH as Leans D)
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UMass Lowell/YouGov poll | 8/28-9/14 LV Maine statewide races 2026 US Senate 🟦Troy Jackson 48% 🟥Susan Collins 43% (incumbent) —— Maine Governor 🟦Hannah Pingree 49% 🟥Bobby Charles 38%
UMass Lowell/YouGov poll | 8/28-9/14 LV US Senate Maine 2026 🟦Troy Jackson 48% 🟥Susan Collins 43% (incumbent) Link to poll: uml.edu/news/press-releases/…
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Larry Sabato retweeted
Generic Ballot Crosstabs by Emerson (A) 🟦 Democrats: 53.2% (D+11.3) 🟥 Republicans: 41.9% —— • White: GOP 49-47 • Black: Dem 78-16 • Hispanic: Dem 64-31 --- • Male: Dem 53-41 • Female: Dem 52-42 • Non-binary: Dem 100-0 --- • Indie: Dem 64-31 --- • Age 18-29: Dem 73-21 • Age 30-39: Dem 59-34 • Age 40-49: Dem 49-45 • Age 50-59: Dem 49-47 • Age 60-69: GOP 51-47 • Age 70+: Dem 49-48 —— • 1,000 LV | 9/21-22 | R33/D33/I34 • 2024 recalled vote: Harris 49-46
🇺🇸 NATIONAL POLL By Emerson (A) Pres. Trump Approve: 39% (-1) Disapprove: 58% (+1) —— Generic Ballot 🟦 Democrats: 53% (+2) 🟥 Republicans: 42% (-1) 🔵 Indie: Dem 60-31% 🔵 Hispanic: Dem 64-31% —— 9/21-22 | LV | recalled: Harris 49-46 emersoncollegepolling.com/se…
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Larry Sabato retweeted
No idea what this is … #POTUS 🛸
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Larry Sabato retweeted
Michigan Senate Poll (ages 18-29) 🟦 Abdul El-Sayed: 82% 🟥 Mike Rogers: 11% NYT/Siena (A+) | 9/15-22 | LV
MICHIGAN POLL - Senate 🟦 Abdul El-Sayed: 49% 🟥 Mike Rogers: 44% —— Net Favs El-Sayed: +4 Rogers: -6 • NYT/Siena (A+) | 9/15-22 | 613 LV • Recalled: Harris 45-41 nytimes.com/interactive/2026…
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Larry Sabato retweeted
An overall look at VA early in-person voting by CD when compared to the 2025 same-day equivalent. Note that this is EARLY, but... VA-1: 0-1 pts bluer than 2025 VA-2: 2-3 pts bluer than 2025 VA-5: 10-11 pts bluer than 2025 (WTF)
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Larry Sabato retweeted
Trump's national job approval w/non-col Whites, his core group, has fallen to ~50-50. But in states w/out many White evangelicals, he's much weaker. Among Whites w/out 4-yr degree, Trump disapproval is 55% in NH & ME, 54% PA, 53% MI, per new @nytimes @SienaResearch polls.
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