Remember that 2024 was Trump +1.5 in margin. For 2026, we estimate likely voters would have voted for Harris by ~2 points.
This is mostly because we just aren't seeing nearly the same level of enthusiasm for Republicans.
It's early, with only about 64,000 ballots cast so far, but the initial EV turnout in Virginia are consistent more of what Democrats want to see.
The early vote currently models at roughly Harris+29. Most of that margin reflects strong Democratic turnout among high-propensity voters, those who cast ballots in all three of the 2020, 2022, and 2024 general elections.
But, it's actually among these high-propensity voters where Republicans are holding on the best. The big for Republicans isn't the overall partisan lean of the early vote (Republicans of course vote later and have come out on ED in the past) but rather it's the pattern among low-propensity voters: the ones who have already turned out are doing so at the highest rates in the most Democratic parts of the state.
The potential turnout asymmetry does parallel what we've seen in primaries and other recent elections, that Republicans were hoping would revert this November.
This of course may not continue because it's very early in the Early Voting period, and I wouldn't even say it's more likely than not to hold at this magnitude. But it's the type of thing that does make a Democratic upside scenario plausible. In an upper-quartile outcome for the party, the 2026 electorate could be Harris+4 or better nationally for instance, which would put Republicans at risk of really steep losses.