“The aim of argument, or of discussion, should not be victory but progress.” Karl Popper
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The TP is expanding narrative this year has no grounds in reality. It’s been agressive flattening all the way. Granted, TP may have widened (who knows) but CB policy is more than offsetting that. Don’t get reality stand in the way of a good story but.
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Always think in excess returns. 0 is irrelevant. Cash is the return for taking no risk. Around cash this calc remains symmetrical.
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lol. The other extreme sounds equally absurd though, and would relegate the CB to compositional effects only. I’m thoroughly confused! Must be late cycle 🤣
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THIS is the right take. The paper doesn't go far enough though. It doesn't just explain long divergences from R*. It suggests there may not be a macro anchored R* at all. Call it multiple equilibria, continuous and all the way up. Huge if true. And all about equity resilience
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He’s irritated to have to admit the fundamental science cannot be reduced beyond “because they just do attract/repulse”.
Nothing is fundamentally reducible all the way down to our level of comprehension. Only down to the level of our non-comprehension.
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You’re literally showing a falsification of your point, as your chart ends in 2022 and there was no recession following that spike.
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It’s a perfectly neutral news headline concealing nothing.
Your reaction, on the other hand…..
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To be fair, I read that as saying: financial condition tightening shock late cycle endangers the cycle.
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