Alright, let’s do this twitter thing. 1/ I started @prometheusmacro in 2020 as a free blog to develop and share my ideas on macro and investing. Fast forward to today and Prometheus is a fast growing macro research firm servicing some of the biggest institutions in the world…
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No, because your thing is reminding people that bonds are the worst, which is insufficient for grifter dollars.
Can I get one Elon buck and plz
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Just remember You don’t HAVE to buy bonds If the world blows up—you’ll buy them 25-50bps richer and still do handsomely Go do other stuff
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@aahan_prometheus retweeted
Replying to @AahanPrometheus
Bonds are the worst?™️
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Final call for Chicago, Oct 28. Return Stacking Symposium is nearly full. Last year sold out. Cliff Asness + the practitioners actually running this in portfolios. How to stack diversifiers without giving up core beta and how to talk about it with clients. Advisors and select media only. Register before it’s gone: returnstacked.com/return-sta…
𝐅𝐢𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐜𝐚𝐥𝐥: the Return Stacking Symposium 2026 is almost full. Last year's event sold out, and if you've been planning to join us in Chicago on October 28, now is the time to register.
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Response crafted exactly like my poasts? Straight to the top @TheDegensDecree DM me for your fee month!
GM Guess what? (Best guess gets a free month on Prometheus)
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@aahan_prometheus retweeted
One of the few podcasts where I feel like I learn something, also great guest @Dcpcooks Perfect listening for my sick day 😷
NEW ROUNDUP We Cover: 🔸 Is a 6% 10-year next? 🔸 What the Fed can't fix 🔸 Can consumers survive? 🔸 The trade after something breaks 🔸 Where to fade hike pricing @Dcpcooks @qthomp @fejau_inc TIMESTAMPS: 00:00 Intro 02:21 Why Bond Yields Keep Rising 07:30 Can Main Street Survive Higher Rates? 11:15 Can Treasury Stop The Selloff? 16:22 What Can’t The Fed Fix? 19:54 Why Higher Yields Remain The Pain Trade 23:13 What Breaks The AI Boom? 26:38 The Generational Bond Bull Market Is Over 29:47 Can Geopolitics Reverse The Selloff? 35:55 How Do You Trade This Market? 39:34 Could 6% Yields Break Markets? 44:21 What Is The Market Hiding? 50:04 The Trade After Something Breaks 53:48 Would You Short The AI Leaders? 58:45 Final Thoughts and Key Trade Levels
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A big part of Macro Talk is audience questions. Here's @BobEUnlimited answer to @memecoinmagi question!
What’s a better predictor of macro regime on a forward looking basis - cross asset price actions or high frequency macroeconomic data for growth and inflation?
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Lots of nominal order growth, but not much rise in real domestic production. Another example of elevated price growth in the US economy.
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Bob. The answer is Bob
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Shoutout to @DannyDayan5 and @AahanPrometheus who have both been on the right side of the inflation and rate trend.
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Since we have bond yields now that @qthomp and I haven’t seen in our trading careers before, we brought in someone who had 😂 Thanks for joining us, @Dcpcooks - a wealth of knowledge
NEW ROUNDUP We Cover: 🔸 Is a 6% 10-year next? 🔸 What the Fed can't fix 🔸 Can consumers survive? 🔸 The trade after something breaks 🔸 Where to fade hike pricing @Dcpcooks @qthomp @fejau_inc TIMESTAMPS: 00:00 Intro 02:21 Why Bond Yields Keep Rising 07:30 Can Main Street Survive Higher Rates? 11:15 Can Treasury Stop The Selloff? 16:22 What Can’t The Fed Fix? 19:54 Why Higher Yields Remain The Pain Trade 23:13 What Breaks The AI Boom? 26:38 The Generational Bond Bull Market Is Over 29:47 Can Geopolitics Reverse The Selloff? 35:55 How Do You Trade This Market? 39:34 Could 6% Yields Break Markets? 44:21 What Is The Market Hiding? 50:04 The Trade After Something Breaks 53:48 Would You Short The AI Leaders? 58:45 Final Thoughts and Key Trade Levels
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GM Oil is down again, so Treasuries are DOWN SOME MORE!?!?! Bonds Are The Worst ™️
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Regardless of bond math How are you getting this 100bps fall in yields? That is an EASING cycle (FYI am fan of Jurrien, just adding to discussion)
Will 5.0% be the ceiling for the nominal Treasury yield? Maybe not, but for bond investors the risk-reward math has gotten considerably better. The 5% yield provides such a good cushion that if the 10-year yield were to fall 100 bps, an investor would make 11.9%, while only losing 1.9% if the yield were to rise to 6%.
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We’re going to be back it with Macro Talk tomorrow at noon! Drop your questions for myself and @BobEUnlimited Make sure to include some silly ones!
Another live MacroTalk today at Noon over on the blog app with @AahanPrometheus. Best part of the convos are the audience questions (and the *very real* ads, of course). Let us know what you want answered in the comments!
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Generational opportunities
4% after tax for life to barely cover inflation Deal of a lifetime
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@aahan_prometheus retweeted
TWO-YEAR U.S. TREASURY YIELDS LAST UP 0.85 BASIS POINTS AT 4.904%
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