Regardless of bond math
How are you getting this 100bps fall in yields? That is an EASING cycle
(FYI am fan of Jurrien, just adding to discussion)
Will 5.0% be the ceiling for the nominal Treasury yield? Maybe not, but for bond investors the risk-reward math has gotten considerably better. The 5% yield provides such a good cushion that if the 10-year yield were to fall 100 bps, an investor would make 11.9%, while only losing 1.9% if the yield were to rise to 6%.