Research service with the goal of democratizing finance. Making institutional-quality insights and research available to the public.
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Prometheus Institutional🔥
Prometheus is built on deep research into how the economy & markets work. We translate that into systematic programs across global markets. We offer an ever-evolving, forward-looking, signal-based view of the global macroeconomic landscape.
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Prometheus Research retweeted
Agree. AI investment looks like the cycle support. Should be interesting to see if it keeps offsetting weak traditional investment.
Every recession is characterized by weak business investment. Tracking its composition is how we can judge if the cycle persists.
Today’s conditions continue to point to a persistent economic expansion.
This makes equity market dips buyable, rather than short-worthy.
Free.
prometheus-macro.com/p/does-…
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Every recession is characterized by weak business investment. Tracking its composition is how we can judge if the cycle persists.
Today’s conditions continue to point to a persistent economic expansion.
This makes equity market dips buyable, rather than short-worthy.
Free.
prometheus-macro.com/p/does-…
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Should investors maintain their equity allocation during an Inflation Shock?
Our latest note offers empirical evidence, mechanics, and portfolio construction considerations to answer this question.
prometheus-macro.com/p/shoul…
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Prometheus Research retweeted
“Hiking cycles are outlier trends that push pricing more *way* more than what’s usually priced”
That’s a great point, and I agree - can’t discount an extreme move.
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🌀"I don’t have a precise number…more than what’s priced…every historical hiking cycle has gone further than what’s currently priced” ▪️ @prometheusmacro #investing
Macro Talk 🔥
Join @AahanPrometheus and @BobEUnlimited as we go live today at noon!
open.substack.com/live-strea…?
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Macro Talk 🔥
Join @AahanPrometheus and @BobEUnlimited as we go live today at noon!
open.substack.com/live-strea…?
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It was great to sit down with @DannyDayan5 to discuss the macro landscape as he sees it. We covered:
- The Fed
- Why Financial Conditions remains extremely loose
- Supply chain pressures
Check it out:
open.spotify.com/episode/6aO…
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Prometheus Research retweeted
My conversation with @prometheusmacro yesterday is below. We talked about the FOMC meeting, the macro outlook and lessons we can learn from 2022.
As a reminder, if FCI eases when they hike, it means they have more to do!
dannydayan.substack.com/p/pr…
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Prometheus Research retweeted
Excited to announce the prospectus filing for the Unlimited Unicorn Opportunities Fund I, a listed closed end fund holding equity exposure in ~150 venture backed companies with a 0% management fee & no performance fees.
Unlimited Filed Today to Bring Lower-Cost Liquid Venture Capital to Public Markets
More at: unlimitedliquidventure.com/p…
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Prometheus Research retweeted
I still find it insane how these conversations packed of learnings and frameworks are free. I listened to it twice over the weekend.
I got 3 ideas stuck in my mind:
1) Two pools of liquidity
He separates financial-market liquidity from funding absorbed by the real economy. Money committed to one use isn’t simultaneously available for another. That is why M2 useless.
A strong economy can coexist with struggling markets and vice versa
2) Bessent: managing volatility and Treasury QE
Buybacks replace off-the-run Treasuries with newer issues. Issuing short-term debt reduces duration containing volatility: higher MOVE means bigger haircuts, deleveraging and forced selling.
Treasury QE is his label for deficit spending funded through expanding bank balance sheets. Main Street gets the spending.
Buybacks alone aren’t money printing. I first heard @dbaeza13 make this point.
3) Cycles framework
5–6-year to the refinancing of global debt.
Liquidity supports bonds first. As it feeds into economic activity and earnings (from one pool to another), equities benefit. Finally, stronger real-economy demand drives commodities and inflation brings the cycle to an end.
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The most recent weakness in employment stems not from business cycle forces but from participation and population dynamics.
The labor market is, in fact, getting tighter.
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As printed at Prometheus
“Energy Remains The Principal Component Of Macro”
Oil prices continue to rise across the curve even as Gulf supply is coming in a bit better than feared in recent weeks.
It highlights that the 10mln bbl/d hole eating up inventories is far more important to prices at this point than marginal supply changes.
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The latest jobless claims data: cyclical expansion, a secularly tight labor market, with further improving claims breadth.
The latest data remain well removed from recessionary averages and continue to bode well for upcoming jobs data.
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Prometheus Research retweeted
Homebuilder profit margins: down
Manufacturing profit margins: up
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Prometheus Research retweeted
The Bond Bear Market Isn’t Over 🧵
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US Treasuries have begun to find modest support in recent weeks, driven by a combination of policy intervention and oil market sell-offs, and we dedicate this note to sharing our understanding of the drivers as we see them today.
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Prometheus Research retweeted
I know the first post is queues up my bond bearishness
But I also hope people recognise that the thread offers what I think to be the principle relationships that drive returns over time
You can separate the view from the mechanics and hopefully you’ll still find some value
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