NEW ROUNDUP We Cover: 🔸 Is a 6% 10-year next? 🔸 What the Fed can't fix 🔸 Can consumers survive? 🔸 The trade after something breaks 🔸 Where to fade hike pricing @Dcpcooks @qthomp @fejau_inc TIMESTAMPS: 00:00 Intro 02:21 Why Bond Yields Keep Rising 07:30 Can Main Street Survive Higher Rates? 11:15 Can Treasury Stop The Selloff? 16:22 What Can’t The Fed Fix? 19:54 Why Higher Yields Remain The Pain Trade 23:13 What Breaks The AI Boom? 26:38 The Generational Bond Bull Market Is Over 29:47 Can Geopolitics Reverse The Selloff? 35:55 How Do You Trade This Market? 39:34 Could 6% Yields Break Markets? 44:21 What Is The Market Hiding? 50:04 The Trade After Something Breaks 53:48 Would You Short The AI Leaders? 58:45 Final Thoughts and Key Trade Levels

One of the few podcasts where I feel like I learn something, also great guest @Dcpcooks Perfect listening for my sick day 😷

3/10 Diesel is the inflation risk that keeps traveling higher. It raises costs for farms, freight, food service and anything delivered by road, with more of the impact still to reach consumers. Higher rates can restrain demand, but they can't repair an energy supply shock. That leaves the Fed with a difficult tradeoff.

In '98, the Fed hiked into the dot-com top. @Dcpcooks says they could be making a similar policy mistake today. Four hikes into a slowing AI boom and energy supply shock could be more than enough.

Bessent doesn't have enough firepower to overpower the bond market. "You're gonna buy $10 billion, but you're gonna do a half a trillion in issuance?"

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Long UK equities, short Europe. @VincentDeluard's trade thesis: – UK pension fund allocations to domestic equities collapsed from 50% to 5% – UK stocks are cheap and massively underowned – The index is concentrated in energy, healthcare and financials – Britain has its own currency and central bank – The UK is further along in its political and economic reset "Nobody wants to touch it, which I view as a very positive sign."

One of @VincentDeluard's highest conviction trades: Long JPY, short EUR – Europe's has an aging population – Social spending continues to rise – Its industrial model is deteriorating – Productivity growth won't close the gap – Currency debasement is the escape valve Japan already ran this playbook and the yen fell by more than 50% nominally, allowing tax collections to eventually outgrow social spending Vincent says Japan has completed its reset but Europe’s is still ahead