The next few weeks are going to be Bessent’s most difficult challenge yet.

NEW ROUNDUP We Cover: 🔸 Is a 6% 10-year next? 🔸 What the Fed can't fix 🔸 Can consumers survive? 🔸 The trade after something breaks 🔸 Where to fade hike pricing @Dcpcooks @qthomp @fejau_inc TIMESTAMPS: 00:00 Intro 02:21 Why Bond Yields Keep Rising 07:30 Can Main Street Survive Higher Rates? 11:15 Can Treasury Stop The Selloff? 16:22 What Can’t The Fed Fix? 19:54 Why Higher Yields Remain The Pain Trade 23:13 What Breaks The AI Boom? 26:38 The Generational Bond Bull Market Is Over 29:47 Can Geopolitics Reverse The Selloff? 35:55 How Do You Trade This Market? 39:34 Could 6% Yields Break Markets? 44:21 What Is The Market Hiding? 50:04 The Trade After Something Breaks 53:48 Would You Short The AI Leaders? 58:45 Final Thoughts and Key Trade Levels

Policymakers are running the economy so unbelievably hot right now that I am starting to think it has approached or surpassed recklessness. The Treasury has completely taken over control of the money supply and financial conditions with their ongoing ATI/YCC actions and most recently manipulation of the dollar lower which dramatically loosens financial conditions. While most of these actions are occurring out of the normal spotlight because the Fed is trapped with an inflation problem and cannot reasonably cut rates, they are not innocent. They are effectively running QE with stock markets at all-time highs with their RMPs that Powell did not discuss at all in yesterday's FOMC, despite their own guidance that the purchases would subside in April after tax day. This QE, labeled as 'reserves management' allows the Treasury to continue irresponsible issuance policies. I characterize these actions as potentially reckless because they put substantial upward pressure on both inflation and economic growth at a time when nominal GDP is already consistently printing >5%. These actions are typically seen coming out of crises, not pre-emptively. With global bond markets already twitchy and the most fragile and overleveraged they've ever been, these policies are like throwing gasoline on a fire. Lost in the shuffle of today's Yen intervention is the fact that this is yet another loosening of financial conditions in the US and more inflationary tinder. Global sovereign bonds get uglier by the day. Notice Japan's yields calling bluff today.

The data says you are correct @hkuppy 1. Share of wealth owned by Americans > 70 years old is at record levels and rising 2. 83% of new jobs in 2025 are health services (keeping said asset owners alive). This has been steadily rising from just 3% of total new jobs in 2021. 3. Meanwhile youth unemployment is rising over 3x faster than the overall U3 rate