"A Fool with a Plan can beat a Genius with no Plan " > T.Boone Pickens TAKE IT👉 #TAKTT #TAKTT > "Trade Away Keep Them Tight "

"My p(dystopia) is basically 100%... I think we are absolutely headed, as you're about to say, to surveillance state, among other things. I've been saying for a few years, the only way OpenAI could really make money is by selling their data. That's what Facebook did, and that's what they're going to do, and they're going to sell it to governments." 🎙️@GaryMarcus and @RealJimChanos on the latest RiskReversal Podcast

I agree. It was an odd thing to bring up in a diplomatic setting, and even more odd that there was no official response from the White House. Besides which, I question whether America is the declining power in the Thucydides Trap of which Xi is so fond. China has: 1. A declining and aging population. 2. A highly leveraged corporate sector burdened by substantial debt (estimated to be 126% of GDP). Combined with weak domestic demand and an economy increasingly reliant on exports for growth, this presents enormous risk. 3. Slow economic growth for a country whose GDP per capita remains a fraction of that of the United States. 4. An authoritarian ruling party that relies extensively on intimidation, censorship, and repression. 5. Deep internal tensions involving ethnicity, poverty, inequality, and politics, including the destruction of Uyghur culture and identity in Xinjiang, which the United States has formally characterized as genocide. 6. Endemic corruption. 7. Neighbors, including several major regional powers, that are deeply distrustful of it. Some of these problems obviously have American analogues. The relevant question is comparative. The United States remains considerably wealthier per capita, has a substantially more favorable demographic outlook, attracts enormous amounts of global talent and capital, and possesses a uniquely extensive network of wealthy military allies. Admittedly, the Trump administration is doing its best to imitate China, but I doubt that MAGA in its current form will exist past 2028. The damage Trump has done is immense, but much of it can be undone with time. China's demographic decline, accumulated corporate debt, authoritarianism, and some of its other structural problems are considerably harder to reverse.

piped.video/watch?v=rXkk3eLF… $BN $BNY.TO

Netanyahu was secretly warned before Oct. 7, 2023 by the Emirati president that Hamas planned a major attack, per NYT

#TGIF have a great weekend 👍👍$$

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: Russel Metals Inc. ( $RUS.TO ) with an “outperform” rating and $92 target. The average is $76.89, “Best positioned for the Industrial economy inflection. The Industrial recovery is gaining momentum, with a key competitor earlier this month characterizing demand as robust across multiple end-markets including data centers, LNG, and energy, supported by tight industry inventories and extended customer lead times, which we see as the most important near-term leading indicator. Other leading indicators we track (e.g., U.S. and Canadian PMI) suggest demand will carry through into 2027, setting up a constructive outlook. Taken together, we have high conviction in near-term demand conditions and see higher volumes combined with recent increases to steel prices as setting the stage for significant operating leverage, which we expect to have an outsized impact on earnings in Q3 and Q4 – a meaningful near-term catalyst. Furthermore, we see Russel as very well positioned to benefit from an uptick in investment in Canada over the next several years which is not reflected in street expectations, in our view. Critically, we see significant upside to consensus estimates, and with valuation still lagging other torquey

Tax tradeoff Could cutting personal income taxes and raising the GST actually encourage growth? Some experts say it could be a crucial move – but massively unpopular if done wrong Erica AliniPersonal economics reporter The Globe and Mail Published 2 hours ago What needs to be added is the GST should not be touched for 25 yrs and turn it into a political ploy like in 2006 @CPC_HQ which put Canada in a fiscal deficit with their 2% GST cut. Also bring back a revised made in Canada Income Trust structure for certain Canadian sectors eg Nat Resources , Healthcare , Operating REIT structures @MarkJCarney theglobeandmail.com/investin…

During his UN speech, Volodymyr Zelenskyy had to remind the world again of the brutality of Russia's invasion, that it was purely Russia's choice, and that it is a war of conquest. I find it sad that the world, more than four years since the full-scale invasion, still needs that reminder. And some, like Trump, his family, Steve Witkoff, and the AfD in Germany, have been talking about restoring economic ties with Russia and a return to business as usual. Russia must be ejected from every square centimeter of Ukraine. Period. Advocating for any other final outcome is either moral cowardice, a lack of a moral compass, or stupidity.

"Gold’s Next Scarcity Problem Isn’t Price, It’s Finding the Next Big Deposit" ca.investing.com/analysis/go… $AEM.TO $DC.A $AMAX.NE $FNV $WPM $WDO.NE

facebook.com/share/v/19pgw7s… La Nostra Lasagna buonissimo 😘😘

piped.video/shorts/BrpQe683U… While China is in the House the Treasury Hedgefund guy is being called to the office :) $VIX piped.video/shorts/BrpQe683U… @timber001 @OHare888 @gnoble79 @VD718

This is still shaping up to be the biggest story of the second half of October. If these probabilities hold, the market is DEMANDING a rate hike on October 28th, a week before the midterms. Trump will lose it, and Warsh will become the new Jay Powell. If these probabilities hold, it means the market has lost patience with the Fed's easy policy over the last two years, which is why long-term yields rose during a 2024 to 2026 easing cycle for the first time in 50+ years (see the repost below). If the Fed sits idle while the market prices in a rate hike, long-term yields could spike off the top of the page. Of course, payrolls, CPI, retail sales, or Q3 earnings could disappoint, and that probability could drop to well under 50%. But if it doesn't, Warsh might be in an impossible situation.

harvestportfolios.com/high-i… 5 yrs ago $HDIV.TO went up against the highly promoted $XEQT.TO winner $HDIV.TO , so now @harvestetfs has a new ETF $HONE ETF should be interesting to see how it performs vs $XEQT.TO harvestportfolios.com/high-i…

Xi Jinping is in Washington and meets Trump today, September 24. The proposed $14 billion Taiwan arms package has been held up for months, and Trump explicitly described it after his May meeting with Xi as a "very good negotiating chip." Reuters reports that Xi is expected today to press Trump to halt U.S. arms sales to Taiwan altogether. If Trump does China’s bidding, he may be setting us on a course toward direct conflict with China. Beijing may perceive an increasingly favorable opportunity: a persuadable and transactional president; U.S. stocks of critical munitions already inadequate for a prolonged conflict and further depleted by the war with Iran; a U.S. Navy numerically smaller than China’s and burdened by maintenance delays, inadequate shipbuilding and repair capacity, and the enormous logistical difficulties of sustaining a war across the western Pacific; and a country distracted by a war of choice in the Middle East. But Trump may already be inclined to let Taiwan be taken with minimal American response. When Xi reportedly asked him in May whether the United States would defend Taiwan if China attacked, Trump declined to answer, while saying that the last thing America needed was another distant war. This would be a problem. China would have broken through the first island chain, greatly improving its ability to project military power into the western Pacific. TSMC would be destroyed, captured, or blockaded, critically threatening global access to advanced semiconductors. China would not simply inherit a functioning semiconductor industry either: it would remain dependent on a global supply chain that includes ASML’s lithography systems, Western chip designs, specialized materials, software, and technical expertise. The disruption would extend far beyond semiconductors: the Taiwan Strait is one of the world’s most important commercial shipping routes, with roughly 44% of the global container fleet transiting it. Our allies in East Asia would have reason to question the credibility of American security guarantees, potentially strengthening arguments in countries such as Japan and South Korea for developing their own nuclear deterrents. North Korea could also conclude that American attention and military resources had been diverted and that U.S. extended deterrence had become less credible, increasing the danger of opportunistic aggression on the Korean Peninsula. The damage to deterrence would extend beyond East Asia. If China successfully changed the regional order through military force while the United States stood aside, other revisionist states could reasonably reassess both the credibility of American security commitments and the costs of using force to achieve their objectives. Trump, hardly the bastion of wisdom on geopolitics, may commit us to an unbearable folly: weakening deterrence against a revanchist power seeking a vastly stronger position in the Pacific, thereby increasing the risk of precisely the war he presumably wants to avoid, but may, in the end, be forced to fight because of the dire consequences of a Chinese conquest of Taiwan. And if deterrence fails, we could find ourselves in an open conflict between the world’s two most powerful states, both armed with nuclear weapons. His transactionalism may end up killing us all.

with China in the House today who is running the USA risk department ?? piped.video/shorts/eIOxTBL8H…

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BlackBerry QNX is just getting started.... $BB

Chargers, Texans, And Bucs Are All 0-2. But There's Something Missing From The Chargers That Worries Me Most. 🚨 The Texans Will Turn It Around Because That Defense Is Dominating. Tampa Plays In A Different Division So It's A Different Path. The Chargers Are More Equipped Than Tampa To Fix This And Still Aren't Fixing It. With Mahomes Back And The Raiders Starting To Play, Be Careful Chargerville. Trade Whispers Could Start If This Doesn't Turn Around Fast. @SeanUnfiltered @AdamGSager #LAChargers #HoustonTexans #TampaBayBuccaneers #NFL #NFLWeek2

barrons.com/articles/fervo-e… $GOOG $YGOG.TO