Hype-free market and investment perspectives from the Carson Group's investment research team.
Serving partners nationwide
- Tweets 1,896
- Following 239
- Followers 8,562
- Likes 837
New Facts vs. Feelings with @RyanDetrick and @sonusvarghese
📈 Mag 7 at a new all-time high
🤖 AI capex keeps lifting chips
🏦 Was the Fed hike really hawkish?
🪙 Bitcoin breaks above $85K
🛍️ Retail sales beat, 1.1% vs 0.8%
Full episode 👇
piped.video/watch?v=AClumwLp…
1
6
16,474
There's an old Wall Street saying: never short a dull market.
The idea is that a quiet market is more likely to be consolidating than stalling out.
And the S&P 500 has been about as quiet as it gets.
🧵
2
3
38
22,417
With the S&P 500 only about 2% from new highs, CNN's Fear & Greed Index sat at 29 as of Sept. 18. That's near extreme fear.
From a contrarian point of view, that's what we like to see.
1
6
702
Septemberphobia looks real. Bulls are cutting targets, and active manager sentiment has dropped hard.
But quiet tape, a dovish-leaning Fed, and October ahead have us expecting the crowd to be wrong.
Ryan's full take👇
carsongroup.com/insights/blo…
6
613
Four straight weeks without a 1% weekly move in the S&P 500. AAII bears just hit their highest level since May 2025.
@RyanDetrick on why you should never short a dull market.
carsongroup.com/insights/blo…
2
24
5,849
Some of the summer's tech darlings are 20%, 30%, 40%+ below their June highs.
Blake Anderson points to an unusual source of the pressure: warnings from the AI labs themselves.
🧵
1
790
Blake's framing of the angst:
If AI is better than us at one thing, it's helpful.
If it's better than us at everything, it may be uncontrollable.
The same breakthroughs that made AI so valuable are what's driving the worry.
1
282
Slowing down at the frontier doesn't have to spell the end of the tech trade.
It could pave the way for a more trusted, secure understanding of AI, and turn this bout of AI angst into AI appreciation.
carsongroup.com/insights/blo…
259
OpenAI and Anthropic are now the ones warning about the risks of their own breakthroughs.
Blake Anderson on why that has tech stocks on edge, and why it doesn't have to end the tech trade.
carsongroup.com/insights/blo…
689
Carson Investment Research retweeted
This 👇
Not sure why the 10y yield should go down if the Fed starts hiking (setting aside any near-term volatility)
FED
It's popular to suggest the 10y yield will fall if the Fed hikes rates this week.
Unless this is a "one and done" hike, though, history suggests the 10y will rise as the hike cycle progresses.
The 10y has risen in every modern hike cycle (especially early in the cycle).
6
4
53
19,948
📊 The 10-year cracked 5% for the first time since October 2023.
Nominal GDP is running near 8%.
@sonusvarghese's read: that's repricing, not necessarily a warning sign.
New Facts vs Feelings 👇
piped.video/watch?v=fO88O3Ot…
1
1
7
2,012
Apple has gone from roughly 18% of global mobile device sales a decade ago to above 30% today. It didn't take the top spot from Samsung until 2022.
Nokia led this chart on day one. It's at 0% now.
6
979
Tim Cook handed Apple to John Ternus on September 1 after hosting 15 annual product events as CEO. Blake Anderson on the track record Ternus inherited and what his first event showed.
carsongroup.com/insights/blo…
4
899
The case for owning international equities usually dies on two objections.
Both are testable. Neither survives the holdings data.
🧵
1
2
992
Objection 2: you need US stocks to own tech.
Technology weight:
Emerging markets 42%
S&P 500 39%
Developed intl 11%
Developed international is the value tilt. EM is where the tech sits.
1
1
362
The international opportunity set isn't better or worse than the US. It's different. That's the whole argument for owning some of it.
carsongroup.com/insights/blo…
1
2
290