A hedge fund manager put a jar of 1,776 jelly beans in front of a room at Google and proved in two rounds why most investors will always lose money. for free. His name is Joel Greenblatt. Gotham Capital. 50% a year for a decade. he asked the room to guess how many jelly beans were in the jar. First round: everyone wrote their guess silently. no talking. no looking around. the average was 1,771. five off. almost perfect. Second round: people said their guesses out loud. heard each other. adjusted. the average collapsed to 850. same room. same jar. the only thing that changed was influence. He told the room: the second guess is the stock market. everyone knows what they just read in the paper. what the guy next to them said. what they saw in the news. the cold independent guess was better. that is not how the market works. but that is where the opportunity is. Then he showed 20 years of data. the cheapest 20% of stocks averaged 38% a year. the most expensive averaged the least. the strategy is simple. the reason it still works is that people are still crazy. and they always will be. 55 minutes. one jar. still free.

AI issuance is not crowding out Treasuries. When Treasury supply overwhelms the market, yields rise relative to the expected path of policy. That implies more negative swap spreads - which we don't see. Investors balance sheets expand through leverage to soak up issuance.

Never thought I'd see this in my lifetime.

have fun staying poor Apollo casually predicting ZERO returns for the S&P 500 over the coming DECADE.

The 10yr was below 5%… yesterday.

Not going to lie. This is a pretty baller line from Bessent. “I am the house now”

Crazy but true stat of the day: From 1800 to 1940 the annual inflation rate was just 0.2% per year Prices were just 28% higher in a 140 year time frame Since 1940 it's 3.7% annually or >2,200% in total awealthofcommonsense.com/202…

$META is having its best month in more than 12 years. Meta Platforms is up about 27% in September, on track for its biggest monthly gain since July 2013. When a company this size jumps 27% in a single month, it is not trading like a mega-cap. The market is repricing its AI story in real time, and this is the leadership that pulls an index higher.

Ken Griffin on America’s deficits, the reality of Social Security for young Americans and the cost of delaying difficult decisions 🇺🇸 “Here’s the biggest issue: politicians deferring some of these decisions means that the impact of future decisions will be so much more painful for the American people. That’s what we’re really doing. We’re not deferring some fixed amount of pain. We’re going to cause far more pain 20 years down the road. Could you imagine today being in your 20s, and you see Social Security come out of your paycheck each and every year? Will the government be there for you when it’s your turn to retire? That’s a legitimate question, given the level of deficit spending we have today.”

NFTs: the 21st-century version of tulip mania.