"That thing that rich people do where they turn money into more money. Can you teach me how to do that, Jack?” - Tina Fey, 30 Rock Jack, “With my eyes closed.”
Lhasa, Tibet
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I’ve been blessed to spend time with many of the world’s great investors.
20 years ago, I made a point to hunt down the best. Many are now popular on Fintwit - Nick Sleep, Li Lu, Chuck Akre. Others should be - Chris Hohn, Larry Robbins, and more.
For🎄: 12 lessons I learned🧵👇
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People often ask me whether I worry about how frothy the market is.
I tell them, "Stocks have already crashed."
Inside the market, there is a crash. That doesn't mean they can't crash more. But tons of well-known stocks are down 50, 70, or 90% from their highs. It is hard to see at the overall market level because, at the same time, some big companies have become giants, offsetting losses in the index.
I'm not just talking about the SaaS massacre - stocks of many companies that are generally regarded as excellent businesses have been smashed, and almost nobody notices.
I've never seen anything like it: the index is so strong, but so many quality constituents are so weak.
From ATHs:
Nike: -84%
McDonalds: -31%
CarMax: -63%
PayPal: -83%
Pepsi: -34%
Disney: -50%
Dick's: -46%
Wendy's: -75%
Charter: -72%
T. Rowe Price: -52%
Campbell's: -71%
Constellation Software: -46%
Kraft Heinz: -70%
Fiserv: -80%
Home Depot: -35%
Hershey's: -40%
Alibaba: -65%
Otis: -35%
Lululemon: -80%
Rollins: -51%
Wingstop: -77%
Boeing: -55%
Lyft: -78%
The Trade Desk: -91%
Most of those are trading near multi-year lows. These were, and generally remain, large, "good" companies.
Now go look at smaller, lower-quality companies, and you will see some crazy sh!t.
There is carnage out there.
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For the record, I'm not arguing these are (or are not) cheap. I am simply observing a phenomenon I've not previously witnessed.
Example of me not arguing these are obviously cheap:
Incredible.
$WING is down nearly 80% in two years, yet I can’t look at it and say, “finally, it’s cheap.”
What were people thinking?!
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I, for one, never would have guessed that a guy who looks like Voldemort might not be wholly honorable and trustworthy.
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Compound248 💰 retweeted
Interesting take.
People often ask me whether I worry about how frothy the market is.
I tell them, "Stocks have already crashed."
Inside the market, there is a crash. That doesn't mean they can't crash more. But tons of well-known stocks are down 50, 70, or 90% from their highs. It is hard to see at the overall market level because, at the same time, some big companies have become giants, offsetting losses in the index.
I'm not just talking about the SaaS massacre - stocks of many companies that are generally regarded as excellent businesses have been smashed, and almost nobody notices.
I've never seen anything like it: the index is so strong, but so many quality constituents are so weak.
From ATHs:
Nike: -84%
McDonalds: -31%
CarMax: -63%
PayPal: -83%
Pepsi: -34%
Disney: -50%
Dick's: -46%
Wendy's: -75%
Charter: -72%
T. Rowe Price: -52%
Campbell's: -71%
Constellation Software: -46%
Kraft Heinz: -70%
Fiserv: -80%
Home Depot: -35%
Hershey's: -40%
Alibaba: -65%
Otis: -35%
Lululemon: -80%
Rollins: -51%
Wingstop: -77%
Boeing: -55%
Lyft: -78%
The Trade Desk: -91%
Most of those are trading near multi-year lows. These were, and generally remain, large, "good" companies.
Now go look at smaller, lower-quality companies, and you will see some crazy sh!t.
There is carnage out there.
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Compound248 💰 retweeted
I been saying this
People often ask me whether I worry about how frothy the market is.
I tell them, "Stocks have already crashed."
Inside the market, there is a crash. That doesn't mean they can't crash more. But tons of well-known stocks are down 50, 70, or 90% from their highs. It is hard to see at the overall market level because, at the same time, some big companies have become giants, offsetting losses in the index.
I'm not just talking about the SaaS massacre - stocks of many companies that are generally regarded as excellent businesses have been smashed, and almost nobody notices.
I've never seen anything like it: the index is so strong, but so many quality constituents are so weak.
From ATHs:
Nike: -84%
McDonalds: -31%
CarMax: -63%
PayPal: -83%
Pepsi: -34%
Disney: -50%
Dick's: -46%
Wendy's: -75%
Charter: -72%
T. Rowe Price: -52%
Campbell's: -71%
Constellation Software: -46%
Kraft Heinz: -70%
Fiserv: -80%
Home Depot: -35%
Hershey's: -40%
Alibaba: -65%
Otis: -35%
Lululemon: -80%
Rollins: -51%
Wingstop: -77%
Boeing: -55%
Lyft: -78%
The Trade Desk: -91%
Most of those are trading near multi-year lows. These were, and generally remain, large, "good" companies.
Now go look at smaller, lower-quality companies, and you will see some crazy sh!t.
There is carnage out there.
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Compound248 💰 retweeted
if you own stuff at 3-5x free cash flow, it will work out eventually
tons of examples of this
People often ask me whether I worry about how frothy the market is.
I tell them, "Stocks have already crashed."
Inside the market, there is a crash. That doesn't mean they can't crash more. But tons of well-known stocks are down 50, 70, or 90% from their highs. It is hard to see at the overall market level because, at the same time, some big companies have become giants, offsetting losses in the index.
I'm not just talking about the SaaS massacre - stocks of many companies that are generally regarded as excellent businesses have been smashed, and almost nobody notices.
I've never seen anything like it: the index is so strong, but so many quality constituents are so weak.
From ATHs:
Nike: -84%
McDonalds: -31%
CarMax: -63%
PayPal: -83%
Pepsi: -34%
Disney: -50%
Dick's: -46%
Wendy's: -75%
Charter: -72%
T. Rowe Price: -52%
Campbell's: -71%
Constellation Software: -46%
Kraft Heinz: -70%
Fiserv: -80%
Home Depot: -35%
Hershey's: -40%
Alibaba: -65%
Otis: -35%
Lululemon: -80%
Rollins: -51%
Wingstop: -77%
Boeing: -55%
Lyft: -78%
The Trade Desk: -91%
Most of those are trading near multi-year lows. These were, and generally remain, large, "good" companies.
Now go look at smaller, lower-quality companies, and you will see some crazy sh!t.
There is carnage out there.
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Why won't Amazon let my Muse shop for me? Doesn't Amazon want to sell stuff?!?!
Also...
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As an aside, $META has no legs to stand on in this debate.
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Meta can take a moral position on this when it opens IG and FB to everyone else's crawlers.
Amazon cuts off Muse.
While I am bullish Meta and Muse, I think many people are overlooking the digital knife fight that’s about to occur
Nobody wants to get commoditized or layered here. Let the games begin
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Compound248 💰 retweeted
When a company fails to deliver products that satisfy the customers who are paying for them, the customers stop showing up. The company loses its revenue, people get fired, and the whole thing eventually shuts down. It can be a stressful system to operate in, but it works beautifully to align incentives and create real accountability.
In NYC Public Schools, that beautiful system gets completely inverted. When a school fails to deliver quality education, the customers (taxpayers) are forced to pay more into it through additional funding measures that get triggered to help lift up the underperformers. The highly-political, aggressively-unionized nature of the operation shields responsible parties from consequences, and the grift just continues on forever.
Despite her experiences and the vulnerability she showed in her essay, Nikole Hannah-Jones still doesn't appreciate any of this.
I am fairly certain that the unnamed incompetent principle of PS307 in Nikole Hannah-Jones's NYT story was Stephanie Carroll.
Since then she has been promoted to a Director of Literacy position within @NYCDOE where she is paid $175k/yr.
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Incredible things are happening at Bloomberg News.
One article from yesterday; another from just now.
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I’ve never seen anything like this.
Bro had one job.
Take. The. Safety.
The clock was highly secondary.
Poor CJ Bailey.
Of course, the Vegas line was Vandy -3.5…
Grant Reacts
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