Nerd processing the world. ex-MS/GS tech, co-ran a fund. Got tired of company I kept. Spent time at an AI co. Looking for la dolce vita. NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE.
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People think I'm bearish Meta
FWIW to the people that follow me
This is the best risk reward that I have seen in $meta in a while
So I bought leaps today
1/ 2012 post IPO Peter Thiel puke
2/ 2022 rates and reality labs fiasco
3/ 2026.07.31
- they actually finally proved out MSL can function coherently and you still get the tariff tantrum 2025 price
- IG is firing on all cylinders and embedding itself more as both a true platform (with entanglements) and the primary creator platform
- for now they have the best glasses wearable on the market and it got better past year
This is clearly a sentiment thing if you listened to the calls.
Analysts ripping META a new one for "not knowing where the capital comes from" and "not knowing when it ends"
Meanwhile AMZN and MSFT had bumbling answers for where the capital comes from and the reaction was the reverse.
The thing with software oriented companies is that one release in theory can change the whole picture. So you have to position in front of products not after them. That's the risk you assume for the reward.
Do I know for certain Meta will release a Tier 1 harness ? No... but I know I built one myself so I know they certainly can. Claude Code harness was leaked in March. They have it. Probabilities are in our favor.
Can only play probabilities.
I think all hypers are all long term well positioned but the relative value to me is in Meta's favor.
Hence long hypers but strong weight on $Meta for me at least.
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Bill -- i fear you're trapping yourself in your choice of words within the logic statements you're constructing. You probably have the right ideas but certain word choice may be misleading you logically.
try symbols and concepts instead
can there be an economic force that is secularly immune to interest rates?
if there can, is that economic force fundamentally inflationary or deflationary ?
is your statement precise that the presumption is predicated on such a thing ?
Is the demand for compute so incalculable that if there was no other economic activity compute demand would continue incalculably ?
The presumption that the Fed raising short-term rates reduces inflation is predicated on the belief that higher rates reduce demand and investment.
But what if higher rates don’t reduce demand and investment because the demand for intelligence and energy is unaffected by higher rates because winning the race for super intelligence has a near infinite ROI and the demand for compute will remain incalculable.
Why won’t higher rates at this unique moment in history therefore lead to more inflation as interest costs are embedded in everything?
And the problem is compounded as the more the Fed raises rates, the more inflation we will have and the more the Fed will need to raise rates further and so on.
But what if the old models don’t apply to the current paradigm and the Fed is wrong?
I think the Fed might have just made a mistake. Am I right or am I wrong?
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My updated intrinsic value is~$800
The why:
I think agentic powered consumer is definitely the future. And should be a brutal fight.
And will restructure a lot of internet value chains.
My hurdle rate in internet overall is higher than August.
(stock prices never match intrinsic and its my own assessment for my own risk not a predictor on price)
$META
My intrinsic value for this co is ~$900 (assuming global economy stays fine).
With our without AI. But I know that @giffmana is doing great work.
When I think about the earnings itself and how much I value each dollar of earnings. The rankings for *me* goes:
- AAPL
- META / AMZN
- MSFT
- GOOG
That's how I underwrite my multiples for each. Just my own take, everyone can have their own.
[hat tip to Prepared because this was a banger]
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Everything in tech is expensive
Cannot find a single deal.
Some exceptions like amzn which will be fine over long term but I suspect this agentic overhang will last longer than shareholders want.
So not finding things to buy
Lmk if you guys see differently
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Do Chinese Internet stocks follow U.S. Internet stocks
Or the reverse
Key question
Please explain how $BABA stock doesn't get taken seriously within the next 3 months
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I’m actually not unsophisticated in this market. In the past 12 months I have purchased 4 tamagotchis.
As gifts. But I think they are cool and I’m trying to be a cool by gifting.
Way better than the other bag charms imo.
1/ This is a jab at older releases because their products had little impact. This connect was not bad.
2/ I don’t actually rely on the Chinese versions of devices however I know that when western markets invest enough in a product category the supply chain beefs up with excess capacity. And I actually do think a 50 usd super sophisticated tamagotchi would be fun. Especially if I could flash it.
The best part about Meta releases
Is the cheap Chinese versions that will follow
I want some of those ASAP
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Meta connect 2026 truly their best event in their history.
I remember being given free oculus Samsung vr on a dreary foggy day in the Marina and thinking about who I could give it away to.
We have come a long way.
These launch in spring 2027. The interface is basically the same as the Vision Pro but it has an absolutely bonkers tabletop virtual keyboard that blows the Vision Pro keyboard out of the water.
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This is actually a pretty good demo harking back to the good old days.
The nuance is ChatGPT voice mode is insanely good.
The real time character is cute though. Wonder how many tokens that would cost me.
Meta just unveiled Muse’s new real-time voice mode and it’s coming to Meta glasses soon!!
Muse keeps working while you’re talking to it. So instead of the old turn-based conversation loop, you can have a long, in-depth conversation while it works in the background “You can have a long in-depth conversation with it… it actually works in the background while you are talking to it.”
They seemed to make a big point during the keynote that Meta is making the voice itself customizable too: “You can just go ahead and describe what you want faster, slower, more southern, more Australian, more pirate… whatever you want.”
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The best part about Meta releases
Is the cheap Chinese versions that will follow
I want some of those ASAP
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Sorian retweeted
I agree it will take a longer time if it does happen. Someone needs to find the confidence to offer a 3rd offering in an agentic world.
Example if postmates was still around.
Layers with 2 offerings just too hard for us consumers to force pricing pressure back to our suppliers.
However I don’t feel the need to own them (stocks) that’s for sure. You probably know em as good as I do but I am not into the mgmt teams.
In all of this I think about China a lot. Meituan is what Dash dreamt of. Sequoia went on and on about how their unique insight into China advantaged them for their investment.
In China it just took Bytedance/PDD to spark the era of price wars. Meituan stock and profits crushed for years.
Agentic not guaranteed but it is as good of a catalyst as any. And as a consumer I can only hope.
These “asset light” marketplaces with fungible “supply chain” — peak Gurley. Little intrinsic value imo. Can build cash flow can ride stocks. But conceptual intrinsic value is not there for me until there’s a real integration from supplier into marketplace.
Would rather own Meituan actually. So I’m glad I had this thought exercise with you.
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We have created our own hell.
Funny @Muse transcript trying to book a karaoke reservation via phone call.
Recipient: You are the real person. Right? You are the human being. Right? How come you sound like cute?
Muse: I’m Hailey, an AI assistant calling on Matt’s
Recipient: (unintelligible audio)
Muse: behalf. The callback number I have is plus one - five
Recipient: It's AI. Are you AI?
Muse: Yes, I’m an AI assistant calling on Matt’s behalf.
Recipient: What? I need the real push in. I don't want talk to the AI. Are you sure you you try the
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Meta is using Muse to foster a 3rd e-commerce ecosystem
1/ Google ecom
2/ Amazon ecom
3/ Meta (Instagram + Muse)
Good execution
We're excited to partner with @Meta to enable PayPal customers to seamlessly shop and check out using their @Muse personal AI agents across PayPal merchants worldwide.
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