hello [Commodity] world @abaxx_tech @abaxx_exchange

Thanks to @BloombergTV and the @BSurveillance team for having me on today. We are dealing with two trades at the same time: scarcity and debasement. The scarcity trade is in commodities, while the debasement trade is in the value of money. CPI is scarcity in the numerator and debasement in the denominator. You’ve got commodity prices being pushed higher by shortages, while governments are simultaneously debasing the value of money. And look at the returns. The Quantix Commodity Index is up 48.5% YTD - the best-performing asset class of the year. Since we made the super cycle call in October 2020, it is up 242.2%, making commodities the best-performing asset class of the decade. This is why you need to own commodities. Watch the full interview here: bloomberg.com/news/videos/20…

Thank you to @KellyCNBC and the @CNBCTheExchange team for having me on today. The old economy is taking its revenge. We are dealing with higher structural inflation after years of underinvestment in the ability to supply and deliver hard assets. There are two trades happening at the exact same time: scarcity and debasement. They actually feed on one another. War and weather are ravaging supply, while financial repression is the road to debasement. That’s toxic. We have a fuel crisis, a food crisis and copper hitting high after high. All commodities, particularly the non-energy ones, are dirt and diesel. Diesel is now the highest-price commodity on the screen. The key point is that these pressures aren’t happening in isolation. When supply is this constrained and the currency is being debased at the same time, the inflationary impact is much bigger than the headline numbers suggest. Watch the full interview here: cnbc.com/video/2026/09/10/re…

This is an important post from my long-time colleague @CMcgarraugh about capital efficiency and why commodities play a critical role in a portfolio. Commodities are long volatility by construction. They're spot assets such that when supply is short and inventories are exhausted, price alone rations demand through volatile price spikes. Eventually these spikes hurt financial assets, which are long-duration and short volatility. This is what creates the negative correlation. And because futures are margined, not funded, every dollar of capital buys multiples of exposure. Uncorrelated volatility plus unfunded exposure is the definition of capital efficiency. The bottom line: Commodity futures add uncorrelated volatility to a portfolio, and volatility drives capital efficiency.

We’re in a critical situation right now - there’s no easy fix to a lack of refinery capacity, a lack of strategic reserves and products, and now-depleted crude reserves. A route to partial normalisation would be looking to China to release spare refining capacity, which seems to be happening, but a return to full normalisation is unlikely any time soon. This will shape the broader commodity and macro-economic outlook. All other commodities are dirt and diesel: we saw all time highs in copper yesterday, record-high diesel last week - we’re going to see more highs across the non-energy complex. Throughout all this, the market is obsessed with crude oil - but everyone reading this right now, as well as the rest of the world, mostly has exposure to the refined product: gasoline, diesel, jet fuel. That will hit the headline CPI index very soon. And we’ve not event talked about food - Ukrainian strikes in the grain corridors in the Black Sea, as well as weather-impacted crop yields has combined to create a food crisis alongside the fuel crisis - wheat, corn and other crops have risen sharply over the summer. Again, that will hit the headline inflation number. The bottom line: this is a crisis not only caused by the Strait of Hormuz. Chokepoints from the Red Sea to the Black Sea grain corridor, the Rhine River, the Russian interior, the Panama Canal - weather, war and policymaking - have combined to create a crisis that has no easy way out. The energy crisis is here: it has arrived and it’s showing in the product prices, not in crude. My interview on @CNBC Access Middle East with @dan_murphy can be watched in full below - thanks to Dan and team for inviting me on.

Copper’s record-breaking run above $14,500/ton should get everyone’s attention. It is the latest sign that the physical economy is repricing scarcity in the real world.  Yes, part of yesterday’s move reflects tariff front-running and metal being pulled into US warehouses. But that doesn’t paint the whole picture.  Metal stranded in one part of the world is unavailable to everyone outside it. Scarcity is not just about how many tonnes exist, it is about having the tonnes in the right place at the right time.  You cannot build data centres, expand grids, electrify industry or duplicate supply chains without copper. Yet supply cannot respond quickly enough because of the same constraints I have highlighted in the thread below.  This is the latest rotation of the commodity cycle. Last month it was grain. Last week it was diesel. Today it is copper.  Weather, war and policymaking are the three horsemen that have combined against underinvestment (the revenge of the old economy) to create a scarcity problem that shows no signs of being solved. The bears will say the metal exists. Fine. But if it is locked in a warehouse, it is just a pile of metal. Just two weeks ago I said the next phase of this cycle would bring “higher highs across more markets”. Copper is now doing exactly that.

“I call that financial repression.” Jeff Currie @CommodMkt reflects on Bessent’s bond mkt intervention. “It’s the reason why we pounded the table on gold.” Full convo below or here: YT: piped.video/4LJsPFP42Nc?si=MHcj… Apple: podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcas… Spotify: open.spotify.com/episode/5Cj…

Thanks to @WilfredFrost for inviting me on to his Master Investor Podcast, where I explained why I believe we are only in the second or third inning of a generational hard-asset cycle. We covered off a lot of pressing subjects, including the pros of owning gold rather than fiat currencies in the current environment, the case for the “Munificent Seven” energy majors, and why diesel and refined products are often telling a more important story than headline crude prices. We also covered agriculture, El Niño, global chokepoints and critical minerals - all of which you can listen to below. It should make for an interesting watch.

Thank you to @JoeSquawk and the @CNBC Squawk Box team for having me on this morning. Nobody consumes crude oil - refineries do. Everyone else consumes gasoline, diesel and jet fuel. Crude is the noise, but products are the signal. Crude fell 9% this week on an Iran-Oman "proposed framework" for a transit corridor; diesel is still $174 a barrel against $80 crude. The framework is a joint statement between Iran and Oman, not a deal with the United States. The IRGC says the Strait stays shut until Washington accepts Tehran's conditions, and the US blockade remains in force. Five ships transited yesterday against 130 a day before the war. This is the third reopening the market has priced since June. The tankers haven't followed yet. Even if it holds, you can flush the crude out of the region but you cannot get the product out. Nobody is going to guide a full product tanker through what is still a hot conflict zone. Solving one chokepoint does not solve the problem. Hormuz is one squeeze among many that are both war-made and weather-made. Ukrainian strikes have taken out Russian refining capacity. The Black Sea grain corridor is shut with 97% of Azov–Black Sea export capacity offline, just as USDA cuts the corn crop. The Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb remain constrained. The Rhine is at a 146-year low and Panama is cutting drafts. Every other commodity is dirt plus diesel, so what happens in Hormuz shows up in the price of grain. These bottlenecks do not exist independently of one another. Years of underinvestment in refining and logistics left no spare capacity to absorb any of it. That is why gasoline, diesel and jet are far tighter than the crude price suggests. You can increase the availability of crude, but if the system cannot refine and move it into the products people actually consume, the economic pressure remains. The story around crude is immaterial when you consider what is happening at both the affordability and CPI levels. Watch the full interview below. cnbc.com/video/2026/08/26/th…

🇺🇸🇨🇦 The U.S. somehow pulled off the impossible, getting Canada and Iran on the same page. Jeff Currie lays out why that diplomatic disaster could get a whole lot worse, fast. "They're only energy dominant because of Canada. So in this environment, making an enemy out of Canada could be absolutely debilitating to the Americans." When the flight to safety skips the dollar, that's the moment everything changes. @CommodMkt

🇺🇸 The U.S. is now buying its own bonds because it doesn't like what the market is charging. Jeff Currie walked through every intervention, from suppressing oil to propping up the yen, and said they all failed one by one. "They don't like the market prices. So what do you call this? This is called financial repression. And you combine that with the higher commodity prices. That's your road to debasement." The bond market hasn't even priced in higher diesel yet. Wake-up time is coming. @CommodMkt

Another great discussion with @MarioNawfal. Thanks again to Mario and team for inviting me on.

🇺🇸 30-year Treasury yields just hit their highest level since 2007, and the government is now buying its own bonds to try to hold them down. Jeffrey Currie, fmr. head of commodities research at Goldman Sachs, joins me for one of the most alarming macro conversations I've had since this war began: Intervening in oil markets, propping up the yen, offering swap lines to Gulf states, and finally resorting to buying back its own bonds the day after record yields printed. The U.S. government has now exhausted EVERY tool it had to hold yields down... "It's clear they've lost control" The buyback isn't alarming on its own, but the timing is: it came immediately after record yields, signaling the government doesn't like the price the market is setting. It's the same pattern it used in oil and the yen, and both of those interventions eventually failed. On energy: oil is back at $94, diesel at $85, and Currie warns the bond market hasn't priced in the higher diesel numbers, so the real inflation shock is still ahead. On AI: he draws a direct parallel to the 2013 shale bubble, too much capital chasing returns in a sector whose cost structure breaks the moment energy gets expensive, with China already undercutting western AI. His most striking observation: the West has controlled the global network of strategic ports for 400 years, from the Portuguese in Bahrain in 1602 to Diego Garcia today. Losing Hormuz marks the beginning of the end of that network... Thanks for joining me, @CommodMkt

All systems go. This is spot on. In addition, Brent is sitting on the 100 day moving average after crossing the 50 and 200 day. Sentiment has shifted. The Munificent 7 are trading at or near ATHs. Gold, silver, BTC, copper all trading extremely well. Its HALO (hard assets local operations)!

"Get Long And Buckle Up": Jeff Currie Says Commodity Bull Market Entering Next Leg zerohedge.com/commodities/ge…