$QQQ 本周完成了750-755目标，比我预期早一个交易日。 如果你认为我在X 平台上发布的看法只是运气，那么可以在discord 群中看到在VIP会员的见证下9月28日也是按照策略进行开仓下单的。 能在X平台发布自己的观点是一种挑战，因为不可能每次都正确，但好在大家都怀着包容、学习的心相聚在这里。 我作为交易员致力于开发一款能适合我们普通交易者使用的工具软件。 辅助交易员的工具不需要太花销，如同辅助汽车修理工的扳手🔧，看谁在使用这些工具，这些工具数据可能在职业交易员眼里只需要不到5秒就已经可以形成交易策略。 GEX Heatmap / Unusual Options flow / Skew / 0DTE / Coustomer position 多位一体的系统每天陪伴着你 再次感谢支持我的朋友。。。。

GEX Heatmap图表能让你先了解市场结构，然后制定交易策略。 空头资金占优情况下，逢高做空为主！ 我是交易员，我开发的系统虽然不高大上，看上去很粗糙，但我知道哪些功能对交易员是有用的，不需要太复杂，尤其对于初学者。

再更新一下对大盘的看法。 先来看一下cpi。能源一个分项承担了月度涨幅的 60%+，但是伊朗油价冲击,联储一向是look through的。 core cpi mom只有 0.2%,低于预期的 0.3%。4月那个吓人的 0.4% 是政府停摆后房租的一次性补算,这个月已经回去了。 cpi headline破4%是什么意料之外的事情吗？早已知晓。这种悲观的情绪，都是因为去杠杆行情爆发后，那些“宏观大师们”事后找补出来的理由，人类的常态就是涨了看涨跌了看跌。但是如果做交易想有edge，就要逆着人性和共识去思考。上周7600点的时候我们在做空，但是到了这个位置我已经平空准备开始做多了。 多头的核心仓位 $MU 已经从上周的极度call heavy转成 put heavy，cor1m也已经修复到了一个合适的位置。大盘在nfp，cpi，伊朗等种种利空催化下都已经跌不动。当然大盘还有概率继续爆杀下去，但是我相信更可能的事情是在低位consolidate。虽然情绪是悲观的，但是仓位是乐观的，多头的反攻只需要一次催化剂。 接下来的不确定性有还有ppi，趋紧的流动性，以及fomc。但是不确定性是双向的，多头仓位拥挤的时候是利空多头的，空头仓位拥挤的时候反而就是利空空头了。

A Recap of the Logic Behind Shorting Semiconductors, Plus a Few Thoughts on Monday Most of this was already laid out in last week's weekly report. franktrading.substack.com/p/… Here I'll cover just the single most important point: the prime mover of this crash was never fundamentals — it was leverage. To gauge just how much leverage had piled up, I rely mainly on two indicators — VIXEQ and COR1M（I learnt them from @labubu_trader — supplemented by the call/put ratio and a few other sentiment indicators. Let me first explain how these two indicators work. VIXEQ (the Cboe S&P 500 Constituent Volatility Index) measures implied volatility at the single-stock level. VIX uses SPX index options and captures "the fear of the index as a whole"; VIXEQ instead runs a VIX-like calculation on each constituent's single-stock options and then aggregates them by market-cap weight, capturing "the fear of the average individual stock." When single-stock call buying turns extremely aggressive and speculation concentrates in names like MU, SNDK, INTC, and NOK, those single-stock options get bid up to very rich levels, and VIXEQ's premium over VIX is stretched to an extreme — the most direct read on single-stock speculation and leverage. COR1M (the Cboe 1-Month Implied Correlation Index) measures the market's expected correlation among constituents. Index variance ≈ average constituent variance × correlation, so when individual stocks are all rising but rising independently of one another (with capital scattered across each name's own story), correlation gets compressed to rock-bottom. COR1M closed at 6.33, meaning implied correlation has already approached its historical low. Put together, these two indicators describe the same structure: everyone is levered up, betting on mutually independent single stocks (mostly semiconductors), while at the same time many hedge funds are long semiconductors and short value stocks — so the index gets artificially flattened. The greatest risk in this structure is that any single shock can, in an instant, snap correlation back from near 0 to 1 — every name falls together, and all the leverage is forced to unwind at once. A crash, in essence, is just the process of correlation reverting to 1. So as early as the start of last week, I had already recognized this enormous leverage risk. That is the prime mover of the decline. As for what the trigger was — it really doesn't matter. AVGO's earnings, SemiAnalysis's negative commentary on MU, that so-called "overheated" NFP, Meta's secondary offering — these were all nothing more than that single gunshot at Sarajevo. It's exactly like silver in late January this year: Warsh taking office was also just a trigger; the real reason was that the leveraged capital loaded with unrealized gains, built up over the course of the parabolic rally, began to flee — setting off a long-on-long stampede, longs trampling longs, the more they sold the more it fell, the more it fell the more they sold. Structure determines direction; the catalyst only determines timing. As for the short itself: I started with just a 1%-sized SMH put spread. In a market like this it's very hard to call exactly which day it cracks, but we can preset a level. Our preset level was 7495 — the HVL (high vol level). Above 7495, dealers are net positive gamma, which suppresses volatility; once 7495 breaks, positive gamma flips to negative gamma, dealers are forced to sell more the more it falls, manufacturing even greater systemic selling pressure. Adding to the short at that level carries the highest win rate. It's not about guessing the top — it's about waiting for the structure itself to flip short, for the dealers themselves to become forced sellers, and only then making the move. There isn't much else to say. Oh, one extra note on my view for Monday. A systemic crisis is still brewing in the Korean market. To describe the most dangerous left tail, it would roughly look like this: if SK Hynix opens limit-down on Monday, it gives the 2x Hynix ETF (currently the world's largest single-stock ETF) no window at all to de-risk — it can't sell hedges into a locked limit-down board, can't de-lever, and so is forced to carry far more than 2x leverage into the next day. Once Hynix sells off further the following session, this ETF gets blown through entirely — possibly even liquidated — and once the panic spreads directly from Seoul to Hong Kong and on to the rest of the world, it triggers an even larger secondary crisis. But in all likelihood, Korea will step in to prop things up. So let's pray for Korea.

简单写一下想法。 首先，不是历史大顶，后续美股还会继续上涨，包括韩股，我还在hold 包括nvda，dram，nok在内的大量正股和leaps call。 第二，半导体和韩国股指上有大量的杠杆多头，这些人如果出现踩踏，跌幅会非常恐怖。极大概率会出现美股杠杆爆炸引发韩国杠杆爆炸引发香港2x海力士杠杆爆炸，抄底需要慎重，以免出现循环爆。 第三，前途是光明的，道路是曲折的，交易不是那么简单的事情，一定要注意杠杆量，注意资金面，注意宏观。

All these “risks” are just excuses. The real risk comes from countless greedy people blindly piling on leverage. Once the leveraged money stops passing the baton, everything goes boom.

就是，你们知道对冲基金要做long short来平衡delta，而这半年nvda在semi内部几乎是consensus的short leg。但是avgo财报太烂了，可能hf们会调整short leg到avgo这个软柿子上。

$MSFT is definitely trash