Follow-up on yesterday’s $AVX post.
Today the stock is still at $5.40. It went through $4.45, printed the high, and it is holding. That is the point. Yesterday the setup was overhang. Legacy AgriFORCE paper. PIPE supply. A stock that lagged avalanche-2:native because old holders were still in the way. Last week ~3m shares traded. Today another ~1.9m printed and the bid did not fail.
Now look at what $5.40 actually buys.
AVX One’s dashboard: about $170m NAV, 14.08m AVAX, ~7.42m shares. That is roughly $23 of NAV per share. At $5.40 the market cap is only ~$40m. You are still paying about 0.23x NAV. Twenty-three cents on the dollar for assets that are already there.
Compare that to $AVAT, the other Avalanche DAT. AVAT is around 0.5x NAV today. Not expensive. Just less absurd.
Two numbers from here:
Catch AVAT’s current multiple. That is not a premium. That is just $AVX stopping being the cheapest wrapper in the same trade. Call it around $12. About +120% to +130%.
Catch NAV of 1. No 2x DAT dream. Just $1 of stock for $1 of treasury. That is about $23. From $5.40 that is roughly +320% to +330%.
And AVAX does not even have to rip for that math to work. If AVAX does rip, the $170m NAV moves up and both targets move with it.
$40m buyback. ~$35.5m left. Management said it buys below intrinsic value to raise NAV per share. At 0.23x NAV they do not need a debate.
Yesterday: the float was cleaning up.
Today: $5.40 is holding, and the equity is still a fraction of the treasury.
That is the follow-up. Just my opinion and no financial advise.
$AVX has been lagging $AVAX. That gap is the hook. @avax_one is supposed to be the public wrapper for an Avalanche treasury. When the token rips and the stock does not, something else is sitting on the tape. 👇
This week that “something else” started to look like supply, not a broken thesis.
AVAX One did not start as an Avalanche vehicle. That history is the overhang.
It was AgriFORCE Growing Systems (AGRI), a small-cap ag-tech name. In November 2025 it rebranded to AVAX One, switched the ticker to $AVX, and launched an Avalanche treasury after a large PIPE. The business changed. A lot of the shareholder base did not.
That is why leftover supply existed:
• Pre-pivot holders who never signed up for AVAX, staking, or a DAT
• PIPE and selling-shareholder paper from the recap
• Dilution and reverse splits, including the 1-for-12 on June 15, 2026
• Months of trading like a leftover shell, not like an @avax proxy
So $AVX can underperform AVAX even when the treasury story is intact. Legacy paper has to clear before the stock starts tracking the token cleanly.
Now look at last week.
Volume on $AVX:
• Sep 16: ~160k
• Sep 17: ~165k
• Sep 18: ~145k
• Sep 21: ~1.68m
• Sep 22: ~866k
About 3.02m shares in five sessions. Against ~7.4m shares outstanding and ~5.27m float, that is ~41% of the company and ~57% of the float. Sep 21 alone was ~23% of shares outstanding.
That is the kind of tape where old paper can leave.
If a large piece of that volume was legacy holders, not AVAX believers, their exit is a feature. You are not losing conviction capital. You are letting pre-pivot stock transfer into people who actually want the treasury. That is how a lagging DAT starts to catch the token.
Today the stock gave some of the move back and volume dropped to ~250k. After a 1.68m day, the quieter session is the interesting part. It could mean a chunk of that historical supply has already been absorbed. Not proof. Consistent with that read.
Then the balance sheet tool matters.
AVAX One has a $40m buyback and had ~$35.5m left as of Sep 1. Management has said it will buy opportunistically when $AVX trades below what it sees as intrinsic value, with the goal of raising NAV per share.
If the overhang was mostly old AgriFORCE and recap paper, the next AVAX-driven bid can look different:
New buyers show up first.
Buybacks no longer have to sit under legacy sellers.
Share count falls.
NAV per share rises.
Thinner supply can amplify the move, and $AVX can start tracking AVAX instead of lagging it.
Same authorization. Different job. The sponge for leftover stock becomes fuel.
This is my interpretation. Management has not confirmed the overhang is gone. After this week’s volume versus a ~7.4m share count, I still think $AVX is one of the cleaner ownership-reset setups on the board.
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Matrix9000 🔺🔺🔺 retweeted
🔺 $AVAX: THE PULLBACK THAT COULD SET UP ROUND TWO
$AVAX is testing the $10 area after its sharp rally. I’m watching $9.50–$10.04 as the support zone for this setup.
Hold that zone and reclaim $11.81, and the next upside area is $14.66–$15.00, where the 1.618 Fibonacci extension meets historical resistance.
That’s where I’d expect a tougher test. A breakout and successful retest would strengthen the case for $16–$17.
A daily close below $9.50 would weaken this scenario and put the breakout base near $7.20 back on the radar.
Nothing is guaranteed. Do Your Own Research.
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Charley will bring a new ath for $avax
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Matrix9000 🔺🔺🔺 retweeted
Kevin O’Leary unveiled his $11M one-of-one Ohtani card at Summit.
Now, he wants to tokenize it.
@kevinolearytv breaks down why collectibles are such a natural fit for tokenization.
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Matrix9000 🔺🔺🔺 retweeted
We now have the technology to build what these people are promising.
What other people are striving to achieve, we know how to create today.
Avalanche Summit NYC was our most impactful Summit yet.
Thank you to everyone who spoke, built, attended, reported, and made it so incredible!
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Matrix9000 🔺🔺🔺 retweeted
Avalanche Summit New York left us inspired.
There is a great deal happening across Avalanche at present, and it underscores precisely why the research agenda exists: to measure, capture, and distribute value in step with that.
Ready for what's next 🔺
Avalanche🔺
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Matrix9000 🔺🔺🔺 retweeted
Avalanche Summit NYC was our most impactful Summit yet.
Thank you to everyone who spoke, built, attended, reported, and made it so incredible!
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