🏈 NFL TNF Play (9/24)
Jordan Love o18.5 Pass Completions
(-141 Novig)
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Love has already thrown the ball 71 times through two games, completing 37 passes. He opened the season with 21 completions on 42 attempts against Minnesota before finishing with 16-of-29 against the Jets.
The matchup with Atlanta sets up well for another solid passing-volume game. The Falcons have allowed 47 completions on 77 opponent attempts through two games — a 61% completion rate while opponents are averaging 38.5 pass attempts per game.
The Falcons are also now without A.J. Terrell, who was placed on IR with a groin injury. Losing their CB1 is a notable development against a Packers passing attack that can distribute the ball to multiple targets.
Another major factor is Green Bay’s rushing attack. The Packers are averaging just 64.5 rushing yards per game through two games, making it difficult to rely on the ground game to control possessions. That puts more responsibility on Love and the passing game.
I also like the way Green Bay has been using Love. His situational splits show he’s completing 55% of his attempts from 11–20 yards, 52.6% from 21–30, and 50% on attempts 31+. The Packers have also incorporated more quick-game concepts to help compensate for their offensive-line issues, which can create easier completion opportunities.
And there is a chance the game remains competitive. Atlanta is making a quarterback change with Michael Penix Jr. making his 2026 debut, after the Falcons averaged just 8 points per game and failed to reach the red zone in their first two contests. If Penix gives Atlanta a more functional offense, that could keep Green Bay from simply leaning on the run late.
With Atlanta already allowing 38.5 opponent pass attempts per game, Green Bay struggling to run the football, Terrell out, and Love likely needing to remain involved throughout the game, I’m backing him O18.5 completions.
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