The most important macro chart in the world from @RaoulGMI. Filter out all the noise. This is happening. Liquidity to increase as suggested with a high degree of probability by this chart and the strong correlation which it implies. +++ #NASDAQ, #Bitcoin    #ETH #dae

May 21, 2023 · 5:43 PM UTC

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Replying to @DTAPCAP
86% correlation with Bitcoin...correlation would be higher if it wasn't for the exponential upside spikes.
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Replying to @DTAPCAP @RaoulGMI
Going back to 01-03 and 07-09 the market didn’t bottom until after the liquidity was at or near its cyclical peak. We’re still at the trough in liquidity.
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Oh boy that's a chart.
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Replying to @DTAPCAP @RaoulGMI
Dan, I have deep respect for your work and your opinions, but how on earth can 10 years of data be of any significance in an unprecedented environment (with so much change and more to come!) as we are undergoing right now? what are we missing for the full picture of your post?
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10yrs is plenty.
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Replying to @DTAPCAP @RaoulGMI
I don't understand. Liquidity means sell AND buy volume so why is this interesting to many people? Is it confused with a vix or volatility index? Or is it implying either a sell side OR buy side move? Just says "liquidity"
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Rates of changes in liquidity matter for assessing market movements in the future. Absolute levels of liquidity matters less.
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Replying to @DTAPCAP @RaoulGMI
Last 2 times you called something noise they were signals not noise, right before and after start of global top and bear market.
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Yes. The Feb22 interview with Dan was off. The other point not accurate. Why don't you go through all my threads dating back to 2019 instead of picking the one that was off?
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Replying to @DTAPCAP @RaoulGMI
nitter.net/RaoulGMI/status/166007…
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Replying to @DTAPCAP @RaoulGMI
this is literally econ 101
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Replying to @DTAPCAP @RaoulGMI
@TorayKortan hmmmmmmm
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Replying to @DTAPCAP @RaoulGMI
aged well. Took advantage of it , thanks!
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nitter.net/themarketradar/status/…
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Replying to @DTAPCAP @jameslavish @RaoulGMI
Interesting but... All correlations based on a single regime (in this case ZIRP) must be treated as suspect during periods of regime change (back to real cost of money).
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Replying to @DTAPCAP @RaoulGMI
This is noise. Look back 50 years and add the FFR. Recency bias is a thing.
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Replying to @DTAPCAP @RaoulGMI
I have a better metric (IMHO), but broadly agree, we’re all just trading global liquidity.
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Replying to @DTAPCAP @RaoulGMI
Gonna be epic next Bull run
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Replying to @DTAPCAP @RaoulGMI
THE SAME MAN WHO PREDICTED 40,000 $ ETH, at 4k and got loads of newbies rekt'd. I think I'll find my alpha elsewhere.
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Replying to @DTAPCAP @RaoulGMI
This is a good sign that something very bad must occur for this to happen. Do not think of this chart as something positive for the short term.
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Replying to @DTAPCAP @RaoulGMI
🍀🍀🌷🌷
CrossBorder Capital/ GLIndexes
@crossbordercap
19 May 2023
Chart shows importance of correctly measuring #Global #Liquidity. GLI index (orange) includes other Central Banks, private sector banks and 'dollar effects' have been cleaned away. Still, hair-brushed and scrubbed-up good news is liquidity is rising!
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Replying to @DTAPCAP @RaoulGMI
Where is this liquidity coming from? @MacroAlf @JackFarley96 wondering what you think here. Would love it if you cover this
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Replying to @DTAPCAP @RaoulGMI
Saw this chart on piped.video/watch?v=GThgQ4ad… There is a lot of noise out there - mostly stones in buckets. But Real Vision is always worth the time to listen to and @maggielake and @RaoulGMI always adds value to the space.
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Replying to @DTAPCAP @RaoulGMI
Whoa!
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Replying to @DTAPCAP @RaoulGMI
Bless your analysis. This analogy is wrong at multiple levels. Consult a statistician. Someone is destined to lose A LOT. At least run backtest.
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Replying to @DTAPCAP @RaoulGMI
@hufhaus9 @danieljarvis @OuroborosCap8
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Replying to @DTAPCAP @RaoulGMI
Interestingly @LynAldenContact has noted as well we’ve likely already hit the liquidity floor
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Replying to @DTAPCAP @RaoulGMI
This is a useful chart but what if it's all discounted
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Replying to @DTAPCAP @jameslavish @RaoulGMI
I ponder h/e, what happens when the Treasury gets the dCeil raised & issues billion in treasuries? This will create a flood of treasury supply, thus forcing rates higher. W/the Fed still in QT, the Fed cannot be a buyer. So, this must imply that the Fed is done hiking & does QE7.
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Replying to @DTAPCAP @RaoulGMI
But we will have a ~$500b headwind as the US Treasury replenishes its cash accounts after the debt ceiling is lifted, so the Fed will need to work overtime to offset that.
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Replying to @DTAPCAP @RaoulGMI
So back up the truck on the most innovative asset class which will jump on the coming liquidity boost - Crypto
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Replying to @DTAPCAP @RaoulGMI
Tap dancing danny
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