Iran Standoff Analysis || Washington is trying, so far unsuccessfully, to convince Tehran the negotiation table is real and that Batna is existentially risky. It wants SoH demined, stranded vessels evacuated and the French-Uk led maritime taskforce launched in return for staged release of cash and a 30-60 day window to iron out the nuclear file; Tehran isn’t biting due to both political echelon mistrust and hardliners who, to varying degrees, are disinterested in a US deal on reasonably inferable operational and strategic imperatives… The region is in a temporary standoff. Iran understands better than most that neither it nor the US can capitulate. It’s banking that the security shadow that renewed combined operations cast over the Saudi Hajj (just ended), the FIFA World Cup and America’s 250th in between, coupled with Potus’s preference for congress out of session, will deter Washington from moving till Aug. It also understands that high intensity operations will cost it dearly while feeding red meat to US and Israeli domestic bases in the crucible of the upcoming elections. Concurrently global markets remain exposed to stagflationary shocks from protracted SoH closure while Tehran faces long term economic damage from the US blockade. Tehran’s light at the end of the tunnel is denying the US and Israel anything they can sell domestically as a win before US midterms and Israel’s government elections around October-November. If Republicans lose the house and lose senate cohesion AND Israel establishes a new government with Ra’am as a potential kingmaker or coalition enabler in the post-election Knesset, renewed operations become difficult to sustain under domestic pressure; the US and Israel will be incentivized to deescalate under less favorable terms, or enter a prolonged ceasefire that leaves the region in a state of protracted instability. The latter outcome makes the Iranian regime especially attractive to Moscow and Beijing’s opportunism as leverage for diluting US bandwidth and complicating multi-theater resource allocation and force posture —a so-called ‘simultaneity problem’ premium Tehran can concierge to major power competitors. Consequently, Iran is concurrently denying clearance of flanking pressure from Hezbollah on Israel, and preventing the evacuation of around 1,500 hostage vessels with some 22k civilian mariners still trapped in the Gulf since the launch of Epic Fury and Roaring Lion on Feb 28, that dilute defensive capacity, exert pressure on interceptor magazine depth and keep critical sites exposed to saturation risk across a roughly thousand mile littoral. In sum, Iran is leveraging the summer’s security shadow as deterrent to deny US-Israel theater shaping for renewed combined ops in August’s final campaign window before elections when security successes, failures, or inaction can be weaponized or paraded for political points. This is likely why Tehran’s hardliners and IRGC view anyUS deal as unfavorable: even for cash and immediate relief the risks of furnishing the US and Israel shaping conditions that embolden action carries risks. A second phase of the kinetic campaign will cost the IRGC dearly and they know it—they likely lose the island chains as coalition forces push to establish seaward based weapons engagement zones to secure an SoH corridor, and missile sites are likely to be strategically isolated and limited to onsite diesel reserves (5-20 day supply depending on size). This is a high-stakes, high-mistrust temporary stalemate with no credible structural pathway to a diplomatic offramp, and accumulating mutual chokehold costs of prolonged stasis. There is high risk of surprise, but little appetite for major kinetic breakout on either side right now. If a credible deal cannot be put on the table the US and Israel may have to push ahead of preferred timetables and select from higher intensity options to thwart Tehran’s strategy.

Thanks to the precision and professionalism of American service members, the M/T Kylo sank in the Gulf of Oman today and joined Iran’s navy at the bottom of the sea.

U.S. Attorney Jeanine Pirro: “My office just struck a massive blow against foreign terrorism in seizing over $560,000 in crypto and dismantling Hamas' online recruitment. By seizing their servers and their domains, we were able to directly intercept money that was going to be used by the military wing of Hamas, the Al Qassam Brigade. And to add a little more interest to this, we also now have the names and identities of thousands of individuals who tried to give money to Hamas that we were able to intercept. My message to Hamas is clear. Your networks are not secure. Your crypto is vulnerable, and we will not stop until your ability to wage war is defeated for once and for all.”

Washinton’s trilemma is that CENTCOM instability creates multi theater exposure, degrading Tehran’s capabilities to the point US global posture can reliably shift away from CENTCOM carries major risks to Gulf countries and Indo Pacific readiness, while leaving the job unfinished carries unmanageable costs to the global deterrence equation: after all, to countries weighing between US alignment and China accommodation what credible good is US presence in INDOPACOM after that same presence proves ineffective in CENTCOM against an upstart middle power? Iran therefore doesn’t need to defeat CENTCOM conventionally, nor does it expect to. It needs to preserve enough regenerative capacity to persistently threaten its neighbors, threaten global markets via maritime disruption, and threaten to force Washington to allocate air defenses and exquisite resources away from Europe and the Indo Pacific at will. So while it’s tempting to dismiss Tehran’s theory of victory as one that sets its highest aims at breaking Centcom’s fist with its own face, or to shrug at their vacuous claims as so much toothless grinning, the opportunistic value propositions for Moscow and Beijing, and the potential attritive pressure on US strategic coherence are quite real.

Today’s operation is the first broad, multi target US strike wave against Iran since July 29 when CENTCOM struck dozens of IRGC command, missile, drone, surveillance, air-defense, and maritime targets during a two hour operation. A few days ago forces hit two IRGC minelaying launchers on Larak Island. But CENTCOM operations beginning around noon ET today span multiple IRGC targets with early reporting indicating sites across Iran’s southern coast at Bandar Abbas, Jask, Chabahar, Konarak, Minab, Sirik and Qeshm have been targeted. At this stage the operation appears to be preemptive coastal suppression, targeting the IRGC’s reconstituting radar, missile, surveillance, and maritime capabilities threatening shipping and Gulf countries. This represents the first major US strike package since the Islamabad MoU expired mid August after its signing in mid June. Iranian state and IRGC reporting says missiles and drones have been launched against U.S. facilities and interests in the region in the opening portion of its retaliation.

Following the removal of ICC Chief Prosecutor Karim Khan, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio reiterated joint calls to dismantle the court. The move comes as Venezuela announces withdrawal from the ICC to partner with U.S.-led accountability efforts.

Folks, we've reached double digits! For shady Qatari foreign agent number 10, we have ThirdCircle, Inc. The firm — run by Jay Footlik, the American lobbyist at the center of Israel’s "Qatargate" scandal — has filed its latest supplemental statement covering November 2025 through April 2026. In that period, the Embassy of the State of Qatar paid the firm $320,000 in five installments, each listed simply as “payment for services rendered.” The general description says those services involved arranging for state and local officials to join delegations to Qatar for meetings with government, business, and trade representatives, plus outreach to unnamed community groups. The required itemized record, however, contains only one entry: December 3, 2025, an in-person appearance at the Doha Forum. That's the full extent of the disclosed activity for which the firm was paid $320,000. No informational materials, press releases, or social media activity were filed. In fact, it doesn't even say who was flown on the specific delegation to Doha and for what purpose. FARA exists so the public can see what a foreign government’s money is buying. One dated contact against a six-figure sum leaves that picture woefully incomplete — and I would argue intentionally so.

U.S. forces started another night of strikes against Iranian military targets at 6:45 p.m. ET today. This is the 13th consecutive night of strikes aimed to hold Iran accountable and diminish threats from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps to commercial shipping.

At 5:30 p.m. ET today, U.S. forces began launching more strikes against Iranian military targets at the Commander in Chief's direction. The mission will continue to further degrade Iran's ability to threaten civilian mariners and commercial vessels transiting regional waters.

SecState Rubio at ASEAN: We think that a nuclear armed Iran is an unacceptable thing. It can't happen, and that's what they were going to do if they hid behind this conventional shield that they were building, and the president just wasn’t going to stand by and allow that to happen. Within two years, Iran could say, "We're breaking out to a nuclear weapon; you can't do anything about it, or we're going to overwhelm you with tens of thousands of drones and missiles," which they were on pace to build. They can't do that now, that certainly weakened them. As far as the impact it's had on the global economy, I mean, Iran is targeting global shipping and international waterways and demanding to control which ships can go and which ones cannot. That just is unacceptable. We're not going to accept that. We're not going to allow that to be the status quo.

Number 3 on our list of Qatari foreign agents is Green River Public Affairs LLC. The firm is paid $15k per month by Qatar's embassy in DC, according to a contract signed by Deputy Ambassador Hamad Al-Muftah. In its latest FARA filing (covering the past six months) the form asks Green River to fill out a contact by contact breakdown so the public can see exactly what the firm did. That section is left blank. All that's there is the same boilerplate paragraph as before, describing the work only as "government and public relations services," media strategy, and delegation trips, nothing specific enough to verify. Green River is a relatively new entity. It is a single member LLC founded in November 2024 by lobbyist Graham Miller, who reportedly brought Qatar's account over from his old firm, Sphere Government Relations, right as SGR's own contract with the embassy ended. Miller also reportedly worked for Mike Flynn.

WSJ reporting of another reason why Pickaxe Mtn with its two tunnel complexes cannot remain a nuclear-related site. “Israeli intelligence believes Iran moved thousands of uranium-enrichment centrifuges into tunnels deep inside a mountain last fall, Israeli and U.S. officials say, a development that would heighten concerns that Tehran could reconstitute its nuclear program,” according to the WSJ (link below). IAEA inspections of this site are not enough, given Iran’s long history of cheating on its nuclear commitments and its all too frequent reversals, allowing inspections one month and not allowing them the next. The WSJ reporting indicates that the US and Israel do not have evidence that Iran is enriching uranium in Pickaxe Mtn, as of the date of the Israeli transmittal of the information about the centrifuges to the US. But the US and Israel need to shutdown the entire site, whether through diplomacy or strikes. wsj.com/world/middle-east/is…

CENTCOM forces have helped facilitate the transit of approximately 900 commercial vessels and 450 million barrels of crude oil.

Since we're all talking about transparency and FARA, here's an example of how Qatari agents operate. GRV Strategies LLC is paid $88K a month by Qatar's International Media Office for PR and consulting. It also recieved an unexplained extra $580K payment in December. GRV told the DOJ that its entire disclosed "political activity" for Qatar between October 1, 2025 and March 31, 2026 was one text to Speaker Mike Johnson's office and three media pitches. That's $1,108,000 for a text message and three emails. Is this all the firm did for Qatar during that period? Color me skeptical. The American public deserves transparency.

[ CCP Watch ] "Debt-trap diplomacy" isn't a slogan, it's a playbook. Beijing lends billions for ports and railways on terms borrowers can't repay, then collects in strategic assets. In 2017, Sri Lanka, drowning in Belt and Road debt, handed China a 99-year lease on Hambantota port, a deep-water gateway sitting near India's sea lanes. The loan built leverage, not prosperity. Watch the pattern: a struggling nation, a shiny megaproject, then quiet control of the infrastructure that matters. The money flows out; the strings stay. Ask who really owns the docks when the bill comes due. ACI — Aric Chen | Insights

Iran has been shooting missiles at the Lincoln. Whose tech, do we know. Chinese engineering went into the IRGC Aerospace Force’s Fateh-110 evolution to the Khalij Fars, Iran’s supersonic ASBM. At a reportedly Mach 3 terminal it can maneuver during reentry relying on electro-optical seeking tech to find, fix, and engage moving ships. With Chinese help at the Shahid Bagheri Industrial Group they shaped their designs on the PLA’s DF-21D ASBM concept. Their Qader shore-based anti-ship cruise missiles are also based on the Chinese C-802. The trouble is they can’t finish. Iran launched 111 missiles at the Lincoln CSG in a short window some weeks ago. All were intercepted or fell into the sea with zero hits.

Today at 6 p.m. ET, U.S. forces began launching new airstrikes against Iran at the Commander in Chief’s direction. The strikes are designed to further degrade Iran’s ability to threaten commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and swiftly punish Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps forces who launched attacks against American service members in Jordan last night.

Professor @vali_nasr latest @FT article on the military flare-up in the Gulf is a classic example of the poverty of analysis among some Western-based experts on Iran. There is no mention of the possibility that the mullahs in Tehran may be simply miscalculating in escalating their confrontation with the US or that they could be misreading the US’s determination to prevail in the Hormuz Strait. There are no hints of Iran’s own economic, military and strategic vulnerabilities; these remain unmentioned, as they have been throughout Professor Nasr’s recent coverage of the Gulf war. Instead, most of his article is devoted to allegations of how the US supposedly ignored the obligations it undertook in the MoU with Iran, by not releasing any frozen Iranian assets or by refusing to accede to Iran’s view on how Hezbollah should be treated in Lebanon. The fact that, in turn, Iran singularly failed even to begin clearing mines from the strait – as it was obliged to do under the MoU – remains unmentioned. And Iran’s determination to fire at shipping which ignored the mullah-imposed navigation routes is explicitly justified by Professor Nasr’s article. Indeed, he implies that US protection for ships that opted to ignore Iranian orders and navigate instead near the Oman coastline provides a key explanation for Iranian belligerence. Throughout, Professor Nasr portrays Iran’s leaders – whom he invariably equates with the country – as thoughtful and well-informed and as enjoying broad popular support. He claims, for instance, that “Last week’s mammoth turnout for the funeral of the slain supreme leader Ali Khamenei was also important in convincing Iran’s leaders that the population would support a hard stance on the strait,” without pondering for a second whether this turnout was manufactured rather than spontaneous. Support for the Iranian regime among Western academics comes in various shapes and forms. But probably the most insidious form is the provision of analysis that deliberately ignores key elements in the debate, that implicitly justifies the mullahs’ actions as reasonable and measured, conflates Iran’s rulers with the public at large and implies that Iranian leaders are both omnipotent, well-informed and visionary. Sadly, Professor Nasr’s analysis ticks some of these boxes. To clarify: all these remarks are my personal views, conveyed in my personal professional capacity, and most certainly do not represent either my Institute or the opinions of any of my colleagues. Why Iran is returning to war ft.com/content/22fdb2d5-b454… via @ft

This is some of the most insane war footage you will ever see. Iranian strike in Jordan. If the guy videoing survived the strike, he’s a very lucky man.

Cutting off Bandar Abbas Strikes on the critical transport links into and out of Bandar Abbas have been struck over the past 48 hours resulting in cutting the main routes to the west and north (Routes 94/96 and 71) as seen from geolocated footage below